Should I wait for 2021-2022 Model Y upgrade?

[Helloguyz]

Hi guys,
I've heard that Tesla Model Y will be having a significant upgrade in late 2021 or early 2022. The price will also drop due to the new coming battery upgrade.（Idk which one tho, lol）
And the range will be improved a little bit. Do you guys know anything relative to this rumor?
Should I stick to my order and get my new Model Y delivery on mid of Oct in 2021, or should I cancel my order and wait for the new upgrade that may coming in late 2021 or 2022?
Fake rumor makes my life miserable. XD

 

[Mr X]

New Model Y is suppose to start test production this week at Giga Texas with initial production starting in October per Tesla Model Y pre-production may start at Gigafactory Texas this week (Photos)



So I'd definitely wait. Will have 400+ mile range! Maybe place an order and delay delivery until you know you'd get a 4680 because there's a long wait for current Model Y's right now...

 

[ry-ballz]

Nobody has any idea when or what will change.

For all we know the new battery pack will cost more and have less range.
Anybody outside of about 10 Tesla employees is simply speculating, most of them poorly.

If you want a model y now, buy one now. If you don't, don't.

 

[Jeremy3292]

We actually have no idea what the new Model Y produced in Texas will look like. Musk said a week ago on the Q2 earnings call that there were scaling issues with the 4680 batteries and that they had a plan B and plan C with 2170 batteries and with/without the structural pack. We also have no idea what the range will be. Even if they put the 4680 batteries in it, there is a supply shortage so they may opt for a smaller pack and a modest increase to ~350 miles. I would certainly wait it out for 6 months or so if I was in the market for a Model Y. You won't get one til Dec anyway if you order now. But everything is speculation as to what exactly the new Texas Model Y's specs will be.

 

[dmurphy]

So I'd definitely wait. Will have 400+ mile range! Maybe place an order and delay delivery until you know you'd get a 4680 because there's a long wait for current Model Y's right now...

Please don’t spread misinformation! Nobody here has any clue about any Model Y changes. It’s all speculation and guesses. And it’s NOT helpful to pass those off as facts, especially to someone who’s looking to buy a vehicle.

The only thing we know for sure is what the currently shipping Model Y has. That’s it. Even if you order one today for delivery in, say, October… it could be different.

 

[EVRider-FL]

The only thing we know for sure is what the currently shipping Model Y has. That’s it. Even if you order one today for delivery in, say, October… it could be different.

It could also cost more.

 

[dmurphy]

It could also cost more.

Absolutely. Or less. Or be free. Or discontinued. Or exactly the same.

Any answer is pure speculation, not fact. So advising someone to wait or buy a future unknown is setting up for disappointment. All we can do is make decisions on what’s available today.

 

[ATPMSD]

When it comes to technology items, whatever you buy will be better next year.

 

[Knightshade]

It's exceedingly unlikely Tesla will ship same priced, but significantly different speced, Model Ys from CA vs TX. Even if they got 4680 working I'd expect similar range offered at the same price, simply using the appropriate # of 4680 cells- assuming they don't have to use the 2170 fallback, to hit that target (which fits best logistics wise- Texas serving eastern half of US, CA western)- or they add a higher priced, longer range, version which makes logistics kinda uglier all around.

 

[dmurphy]

they add a higher priced, longer range, version which makes logistics kinda uglier all around.

Not sure what you mean? If you call it, say, “LR+“ - it’d just be another model, like SR or P or whatever. They obviously have the logistics in place for stuff like that.
… but that’s not what I’d be doing anyway.

Were it me, I’d build exactly the same models out of Texas and Fremont. (Obviously with the new castings etc in Texas but same end user specs.) I’d ramp up Texas to the point where it had at least the same Y output as Fremont, if not more. Then, shut down Fremont for a few weeks to retool with the same gear as Texas, and bring it back online. Only then would I consider making an “LR+“ model or introduce some big leap in specs.

Either way, I look at Texas as a pressure valve to buy them the ability to shut the Fremont line down for retooling. Otherwise, updating Fremont is like changing the engine on a 747 mid-flight.

Just my thoughts!

 

[Knightshade]

Not sure what you mean? If you call it, say, “LR+“ - it’d just be another model, like SR or P or whatever. They obviously have the logistics in place for stuff like that.

What I mean is, the new model would only be made in TX if they made a "better" one that relies on structural packs and 4680s because freemont can't make that car.

Which kills the whole idea of supplying the east coast out of Texas and west from CA- this making logistics kinda ugly they now have to ship country-wide from TX for some models, and country-wide from CA for others....

Were it me, I’d build exactly the same models out of Texas and Fremont. (Obviously with the new castings etc in Texas but same end user specs.) I’d ramp up Texas to the point where it had at least the same Y output as Fremont, if not more. Then, shut down Fremont for a few weeks to retool with the same gear as Texas, and bring it back online. Only then would I consider making an “LR+“ model or introduce some big leap in specs.

Right- that's the more likely scenario I described... but that's not coming in a few months, that'd be 1-2 years to ramp texas, and 4680s, to a level that'd make that possible.

 

[Jeremy3292]

Likely scenario IMO:

1. 2170 YOY battery gains in the CA version.
2. Structural pack 4680 in TX version but less cells used. Casting different.
3. End result = 335-350 miles of range to the consumer and car looks identical.

 

[davidski]

A Tesla sales associate told me that the 4680's were destined for the Cybertruck first, and then the Semi's, and it would be some time before they found their way into the Y. Maybe just informed speculation, but just wanted to pass that along.

 

[glide]

New Model Y is suppose to start test production this week at Giga Texas with initial production starting in October per Tesla Model Y pre-production may start at Gigafactory Texas this week (Photos)



So I'd definitely wait. Will have 400+ mile range! Maybe place an order and delay delivery until you know you'd get a 4680 because there's a long wait for current Model Y's right now...

That is total speculation at this point.

 

[ucsdsig]

A Tesla sales associate told me that the 4680's were destined for the Cybertruck first, and then the Semi's, and it would be some time before they found their way into the Y. Maybe just informed speculation, but just wanted to pass that along.

Unfortunately sales associates aren't the most reliable source of information. More likely to find the most current information at TMC or Tesla Reddit forums.

 

[Er1c*]

I wouldn't want to be first in line for a structural battery pack. If something goes wrong with the current battery pack they can drop the pack and replace it. How does that happen in a structural pack that's part of the structure of the car? I'm sure they have some plan for fixing bad cells/modules but what is it? Too many unanswered questions for me to jump in line and get one. I bought my Y a few months ago I'm happy with it, I wouldn't wait for the next greatest thing, because once that comes out, you will be waiting for the next big thing the announce.

 

[Jeremy3292]

I wouldn't want to be first in line for a structural battery pack. If something goes wrong with the current battery pack they can drop the pack and replace it. How does that happen in a structural pack that's part of the structure of the car? I'm sure they have some plan for fixing bad cells/modules but what is it? Too many unanswered questions for me to jump in line and get one. I bought my Y a few months ago I'm happy with it, I wouldn't wait for the next greatest thing, because once that comes out, you will be waiting for the next big thing the announce.

I agree. I don't like being the first for anything especially a brand new factory with a brand new design with brand new employees with brand new manufacturing. I didn't buy the Model 3 for a few years until they solved a bunch of the kinks. The 2021 Model 3 is where Tesla "hit its stride" IMO.

 

[TSLY]

That's why I leased! I might buy an upgraded MY in 3 years if I love it. Or pick another model from another maker if so smitten. I could very possibly get an Austin built MY on my current December EDD. If I don't, at this juncture the difference will still be negligible.

 

[dmurphy]

What I mean is, the new model would only be made in TX if they made a "better" one that relies on structural packs and 4680s because freemont can't make that car.

Which kills the whole idea of supplying the east coast out of Texas and west from CA- this making logistics kinda ugly they now have to ship country-wide from TX for some models, and country-wide from CA for others....

Ahh, I gotcha now. I'd still argue it's not a huge logistical deal... Today they have to move cars from Fremont to, say, Miami. Even if it were a "Texas exclusive" model -- still shorter to move to most of the country... given that everything today is "Fremont exclusive", still an improvement.

Not quite as clean as "Texas = East, Fremont = West" -- I'll certainly agree there. But I can't wait for the wailing on that too --- "waaaaa how do I order a Texas Y for delivery to Napa?! I heard from my cousin's brother's uncle's wife's mother's sister's bowling partner that the Texas Y comes with an extra plastic bag for the floor mats!"

Right- that's the more likely scenario I described... but that's not coming in a few months, that'd be 1-2 years to ramp texas, and 4680s, to a level that'd make that possible.

Yup. I think that's a viable timeframe too. 12-18 months is my guess to get Fremont retooled with front castings. In other words... "Get used to today's Model Y, we're going to be seeing a lot of it for a while."

 

[SpaceShipDrvr]

Hi guys,
I've heard that Tesla Model Y will be having a significant upgrade in late 2021 or early 2022. The price will also drop due to the new coming battery upgrade.（Idk which one tho, lol）
And the range will be improved a little bit. Do you guys know anything relative to this rumor?
Should I stick to my order and get my new Model Y delivery on mid of Oct in 2021, or should I cancel my order and wait for the new upgrade that may coming in late 2021 or 2022?
Fake rumor makes my life miserable. XD

If you are expecting price to drop you are probably dreaming. They can't make enough Model Y's to meet demand, and used Model Y's are selling for MORE than new ones... there is absolutely NO reason for them to drop the price.

As others have said, there will always be a better Model Y just around the corner. I personally wouldn't put it off, but your mileage may vary. But hey maybe if you cancel my delivery will be moved up.