TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker or making a Paypal contribution here: paypal.me/SupportTMC

So How Many People Are Ahead Of Your Delivery?

Discussion in 'Model X: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by jsollender, Jan 30, 2016.

  1. jsollender

    jsollender Member

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2016
    Messages:
    361
    Location:
    Denver, CO
    Without discussing P90D vs 90D vs 70D order of fabrication, signature vs founder vs production, take your Sequence Number (if you were ever assigned one) and estimate what your real order of delivery is. What I'm getting at is my belief there are a healthy percentage of people who make up total reservations who put down deposits of $5K or more, who have not put their money at risk by configuring, or who may have cancelled or who are waiting to see car hands on and test drive before committing to their purchase. I can't see modelxtracker as clarifying the number, but I'm assuming that with my reservation number 16xxx from 4/15, I assume that there are between 20-30% of numbers higher than me in order who haven't pulled the commitment trigger, leaving my reservation number somewhere closer to 11,000 to 13,000 range before discussing that Signatures come first before any production 90's or 70's come out. What do y'all think. Give any data to support % of non-committed orders to your comments.
     
  2. walla2

    walla2 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2012
    Messages:
    397
    #2 walla2, Jan 30, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2016
    This is what is happening.

    Sig orders placed. Some parts not done for some configs / colors / non-Premium. Those get held. Some reservations not ordered.

    Batch Sig production starts. Some parts run out meaning some Sigs get held up.

    Production P90Ds configs start. Available parts means some production batches start. Parts for Signatures come in. Those start getting built. Some reservations do not complete.

    More production P90D orders come in. Get added to the batch if parts available. Finished Signatures deliver. Some Signatures and earlier production orders still await parts. Signature part requests take priority.

    More production orders come in from new reservations and those on hold. Some productions deliver and most Signatures delivered. Some Signatures still remain unfinished.

    Parts come in for more and more builds. Batching continues and all Signatures complete or 99% complete. More predictable production continues with some batching but more consistent reservation numbers to VIN.

    Most Signatures deliver. Some productions beat Signatures.

    Parts are made in some surplus. Remaining P90D list nearly completes before 90D starts. Some 90D orders complete before P90D. Orders of P90D and 90D fulfilled relatively quickly with rare exception. Parts become available for service centers. 70D starts.

    This is how Model S builds happened in retrospect. Predicting time to completion is hard until parts are in surplus of the line. That's why DS answers are all over the place just like they were in 2012/13.
     
  3. jsollender

    jsollender Member

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2016
    Messages:
    361
    Location:
    Denver, CO
    Yeah yeah I've read all that. You're not addressing my question...
     
  4. AdamSM

    AdamSM Member

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2015
    Messages:
    43
    Location:
    United States
    I think it's really hard to estimate. What data do we have? We have the modelxtracker, which shows that roughly 26.5% of the people who said that they reserved subsequently said that they ordered. That would suggest that there might be something like 7500-10,000 total orders at present. But that data seems suspect--people might well have filled in data in the tracker when they reserved, but then lost interest in contributing to the tracker (for whatever reason) yet still confirmed. Alternately, you might hypothesize that the people who participate online and fill out tracker data are the most likely to actually order sight-unseen and that people who have filled out the tracker for their reservations are likely to then follow-through and fill it out for the order as well. So that might suggest that less than a quarter of the people who have reserved have placed orders. I really don't know how to get past a guess.

    I'm sure that there are many people who have reserved but aren't willing to order until they see the X--I was in that camp, and didn't order until Joel was super-helpful and let us look at his Sig. Moreover, tons of people on this site say that they're waiting to see it in person. But is "many" 75%? 90%? 25%? How could we know?

    So I think it's really hard to know, but my guess is that there are not more than about 15K actual orders, and could be as few as about 7500. But that's just a WAG.
     
  5. aesculus

    aesculus Still Trying to Figure this All Out

    Joined:
    May 31, 2015
    Messages:
    1,969
    Location:
    Northern California
    I think you are asking how many reservations have not moved to orders?

    I don't think anyone but Tesla knows that question. I do think its a very large number though, especially outside of signatures, which at one time was rumored to be 20% or more. I think its big because they would not be pushing these 'try and drive events' if everyone was ordering.

    Then the next question is what happens to the production order when/if people do finally confirm? Do they go back into the queue in reservation sequence or stay at order sequence? And of course everything walla2 stated about parts availability will effect delivery too.
     
  6. AdamSM

    AdamSM Member

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2015
    Messages:
    43
    Location:
    United States
    What I was told when I asked was that the production order is determined by (A) config and (B) confirmation order, with reservation sequence no longer mattering. So if sequence number 15000 orders tomorrow with the same configuration as sequence number 25,000, who ordered yesterday, sequence number 15000 would be behind 25,000. Of course, P90s are ahead of 90s, and 90s ahead of 70s, etc., at least until they've cleared the backlog of P90s and started building the 90s, so it's not straight confirmation order, but confirmation order is I believe much more important than reservation sequence. But of course, I can't be really confident about this, because Tesla's communications aren't super-clear or consistent.
     
  7. umeshunni

    umeshunni Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2016
    Messages:
    383
    Location:
    San Francisco, CA
    I suspect we'll get a clearer answer to this question in a week when tasks $TSLA earnings are announced and in the subsequent call and shareholder meeting.
     
  8. pvogel

    pvogel Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2015
    Messages:
    906
    Location:
    Santa Clara, CA
    Reservation order determines nothing other than the order in which you get your invite e-mail. After that it's all about confirmation order and, at least early on, WHAT config you order. VINS get assigned when the car is batched into the production queue. Having a VIN just means they know in what order your car will enter production.
     
  9. Marcos

    Marcos Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2015
    Messages:
    91
    Location:
    Oakland, CA
    I was reservation number 14,XXX, and my VIN is in the low 800s. I got everything except ludicrous, and ordered within minutes of my design studio being opened. So at least with those that got P90Ds and premium, the jump was huge.
     
  10. dwebb66

    dwebb66 Member

    Joined:
    May 11, 2014
    Messages:
    349
    Location:
    Ladera Ranch, CA
    Not 100% true, I have a sub 10,000 reservation, order 25-Dec, confirmed 2-Jan and I still do not have a VIN. lIke you I ordered all the options except Ludicrous.
     
  11. pvogel

    pvogel Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2015
    Messages:
    906
    Location:
    Santa Clara, CA
    You sure? P90D with the Premium Upgrades Package?
     
  12. aesculus

    aesculus Still Trying to Figure this All Out

    Joined:
    May 31, 2015
    Messages:
    1,969
    Location:
    Northern California
    His signature says so. Take a peek.
     
  13. LeonardD

    LeonardD Member

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2016
    Messages:
    91
    Location:
    Fairfax, VA
    Mine is a plain old 90D (With everything except Ultra Hi Fi and Towing) I am hoping that the Accessories hitch, which was included at the time of my order will be good enough for occasional use. My original reservation sequence number 184x missed the cutoff of the first production group by fewer than 200. I was able to configure the following week, and did so as soon as I noticed the button on the 'My Tesla' page. I received the e-mail later that day, together with at least 3, other people, so they potentially could have configured before I did if the did the same as I did, or got their e-mails earlier. I confirmed 3 days after I configured, because I noticed a 'Confirm Now' button 'My Tesla'. Hopefully that pushed me ahead of the thousands with later reservations who did not notice the button, or waited for the 7 day auto confirm. It was after the auto confirm of the first batch, so I know I did not jump ahead of them. I expect that at least 1,500 people confirmed before me, not including sigs, and at least 100-150 or those went with P90Ds. It is likely that the P90D is more popular amongst people who reserved much later because they expect to get their cars first. To those I say thanks for paying to be Beta Testers!
     
  14. Marcos

    Marcos Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2015
    Messages:
    91
    Location:
    Oakland, CA
    Something has to be wrong. There is no legitimate reason why I (and others) have jumped ahead of you. That is, unless your car is the 5-seat variety. I don't see the number of seats in your sig.
     
  15. dwebb66

    dwebb66 Member

    Joined:
    May 11, 2014
    Messages:
    349
    Location:
    Ladera Ranch, CA
    Screenshot 2016-01-31 11.14.53.png

    - - - Updated - - -


    I called last week and they said that the order looked OK, just no information as to when I will get a VIN, etc.
     
  16. Pantoot

    Pantoot Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2014
    Messages:
    52
    Location:
    Arizona
    I suspect (based on nothing) that the carbon wheels are what is holding it back.
     
  17. dwebb66

    dwebb66 Member

    Joined:
    May 11, 2014
    Messages:
    349
    Location:
    Ladera Ranch, CA
    That is my thought also.
     
  18. aesculus

    aesculus Still Trying to Figure this All Out

    Joined:
    May 31, 2015
    Messages:
    1,969
    Location:
    Northern California
    Don't know anyone with the carbon wheels that has gotten a VIN yet.
     
  19. dwebb66

    dwebb66 Member

    Joined:
    May 11, 2014
    Messages:
    349
    Location:
    Ladera Ranch, CA
    There are 41 X's with Black/Carbon/Onyx wheels in the ModelXTracker, 7 have VINs assigned.
     
  20. walla2

    walla2 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2012
    Messages:
    397
    See second post. It explains the build logic of Tesla for the S and now X. If your parts aren't 99% in, they don't start your car unless 99% of parts are in and the last can be manually added later. Two exactly spec'd cars that are ordered may not finish at the same time due to running out of parts. Some P90D builds won't start until after some 90Ds get delivered. This will continue and is what Tesla calls a ramp up. Only a few people in Tesla inventory can predict your build or authorize the start of your car batch.
     

Share This Page