So the Model 3 is real, and in prod: what will the naysayers shift to now?

[montreid]

Model 3 means no longer playing in a niche market -

-Scale in production to meet demand
-Scale service centers to meet service call demand
-Lower finish errors, especially with #1 demand and #2 lack of service centers to handle calls.
-Pass 5 star ratings as designed and promoted

All these are real potential stumbling blocks, especially for folk outside CA on the service issue.

 

[1208]

As the photo has not appeared on CNN it must be real.

 

[Runt8]

1. Tesla is changing the focus of Superchargers to additionally serve people who cannot charge at home for whatever reason. Ultra fast charging is a necessity in that case so the charging stations aren't backed up.

Do you have a reference for this? As far as I can remember Tesla has only said that supercharging is for long distance travel.

 

[alevek]

Change of mindset for widespread acceptance.

We live in a small development, cars consist of the usual mix of Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Range Rovers, Lamborghini, Ferrari, Aston Martin, and Bentley. We're the only ones with Evs, a Model S and Chevy Bolt. Everyone admires our cars for their unusual tech, and when I give them test drives and explain the superiority of EV drive, especially pointing out that my P85D will smoke any of their cars, they all are amazed. Then the usual questions come up: how far can you go and how long does it take to get a full charge? I explain that since I drive an average of 25 mi/ day, like practically all the rest of them, I charge once a week and time to charge is irrelevant since it happens while sleeping. Even though for most of them a long trip consists of a limo ride to the airport, they just don't get it.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Model 3 means no longer playing in a niche market -

-Scale in production to meet demand
-Scale service centers to meet service call demand
-Lower finish errors, especially with #1 demand and #2 lack of service centers to handle calls.
-Pass 5 star ratings as designed and promoted

All these are real potential stumbling blocks, especially for folk outside CA on the service issue.

I agree that everything depends on scaling now.

I'm sure the Model 3 is great, but the supporting infrastructure has to be great too, in order for Tesla to succeed in the long run.

 

[Skotty]

The next logical step is converting the deposits into sales.

They will challenge each and every step, so they will challenge that step.

The next step is living past the end of the tax rebate (giant lull).

They will challenge that.

This is actually a real issue because the tax credit rules were not thought out well enough. Other companies are going to ride the coattails of Tesla's success with their late starts and benefit from the competitive advantage that Tesla's no longer quality for tax credits while other manufacturers do.

Honestly, what I think they should have done is either have a total number of credits for the entire industry, or have manufacturers have to certify individual models for the tax credit (certification required to prevent abuse of intent), and then each certified model is eligible for X number of tax credits.

 

[number12]

This is actually a real issue because the tax credit rules were not thought out well enough. Other companies are going to ride the coattails of Tesla's success with their late starts and benefit from the competitive advantage that Tesla's no longer quality for tax credits with other manufacturers do.

Yes I've never understood this early to market being an advantage on lots of tech (short of AP learning - which does not seem to be working)

If a legacy automaker goes all electric now... wouldn't tech be so much more advanced in batteries and autonomous that they don't have to waste as much on R/D + plus get full 200k credits.

Color me confused

 

[zenmaster]

Yes I've never understood this early to market being an advantage on lots of tech (short of AP learning - which does not seem to be working)

If a legacy automaker goes all electric now... wouldn't tech be so much more advanced in batteries and autonomous that they don't have to waste as much on R/D + plus get full 200k credits.

Color me confused

What's not to understand?
First and foremost, Tesla's stated goal was to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport. How does a company accomplish that?

 

[Topher]

You need the critics

But they need to be honest criticisms, not FUD.

the usual mix of Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Range Rovers, Lamborghini, Ferrari, Aston Martin, and Bentley.

There is no 'usual' mix of those cars. The usual mix is Toyota, Chevy, Honda, Ford, Nissan, VW, and Subaru.

Thank you kindly.

 

[Tesmotorfaqcom]

Both HK and Denmark saw Tesla sale down to almost zero after the tax incentive is gone. While this is unlikely to happen in US but one would expect initially people reaction is to buy EV from other manufacturers who had not hit the quota. Also while Tesla want M3 owner to be able to take advantage of tax credit, the priority is really for MS and MX owners to be able to take advantage of tax credit as the profit margin on them are much higher.

 

[22522]

Yes I've never understood this early to market being an advantage on lots of tech (short of AP learning - which does not seem to be working)

If a legacy automaker goes all electric now... wouldn't tech be so much more advanced in batteries and autonomous that they don't have to waste as much on R/D + plus get full 200k credits.

Color me confused

It is actually more than 200,000 cars.
The full tax credit goes to all EVs made in the quarter you cross and the quarter after. If you set it right, it could be 1,200,000. Just make a million cars in the 6 months where you cross.

Here is how I would play that:

1. Develop stealth capability to produce at 1,000,000 a year, but don't show your hand until late this year (lull congress to sleep).
2. Deliver 500,000 cars in the first half of next year.
3. Congress is outraged and changes the law.

As far as making the transition to no rebate, drive walk in traffic, that you will rely on after the rebate, by getting the full rebate for walk ins in early 2018. See plan above.

 

[McRat]

Both HK and Denmark saw Tesla sale down to almost zero after the tax incentive is gone. While this is unlikely to happen in US but one would expect initially people reaction is to buy EV from other manufacturers who had not hit the quota. Also while Tesla want M3 owner to be able to take advantage of tax credit, the priority is really for MS and MX owners to be able to take advantage of tax credit as the profit margin on them are much higher.

It has happened in the US. IIRC, Georgia dumped their EV program and sales tanked.

California just dumped their rebate 30 June 2017 (biggest single EV market $) so let's watch. It's not going to affect $70k+ cars as badly as $30k cars since it's only $2500 ($5000 for Hydrogen since Toyota purchased California's Legislature).

The good news it is will make the Prius once again the only truly 'green' choice in California. Because burning gas in a lethargic, poor handling, and hideous econobox is the green solution, not EVs. Nothing says Save the Whales as strongly as driving something with the performance of a beached whale.

 

[McRat]

Perhaps if Tesla sold out to the Unions, they could get the California Rebate back. If there is one thing the Cal Legislature will spread their legs for quicker than Toyota money is Union money.

 

[Big-T]

Heck I'm no Tesla bear and I'm concerned about the following (in order)

1) Tesla will not ramp up as fast as they say (I'm guessing most cars have a ton of manual hand holding right now)
2) Once Tesla DOES start ramping up they make some mistake on the production line because they're skipping the soft tooling phase
3) Professional reviewers (Consumer Reports, Car and Driver, etc) will harp on this being a "weird mobile" for lack of Instrument cluster of some sort.
4) Related to #3 The intentional neutering of the Model 3 to protect model S/X sales will also lead to mediocre write ups as they inevitably compare it to the S/X
5) Because of #3&4 once they burn thru their pre-orders they won't actually have the demand from the general public to fill a factory cranking out 500,000 cars per year.(A public that could care less if it's an EV they want creature comforts and refinement and read reviews before buying a car)
6) Once federal EV credits go away, putting a car at an average price of $40-50k is going to put even the model 3 out of reach of many.
7) Service centers and superchargers will not be up fast enough to deal with even 500,000 new Tesla's on the road, much less 500,000 per year.

 

[Krugerrand]

I agree that everything depends on scaling now.

I'm sure the Model 3 is great, but the supporting infrastructure has to be great too, in order for Tesla to succeed in the long run.

Do you doubt that Tesla will do what it has to to succeed in the long run? Yeah, me neither. So all this caution/negativity/etc... is white noise.

 

[dchuck]

Do you have a reference for this? As far as I can remember Tesla has only said that supercharging is for long distance travel.

Here you go:

Tesla’s new Supercharger strategy is a major shift that will enable urban EV ownership

 

[McRat]

Here you go:

Tesla’s new Supercharger strategy is a major shift that will enable urban EV ownership

Here's the problem.

Let's say you want to travel distances in an EV. Cities are often places you drive through. If the city chargers are always full with local owners, you cannot effectively use an EV for long range travel unless time is something you have no have interest in at all.

If you want a useful EV charging grid, you either need to disallow local owners from charging, or increase the number of urban chargers. This does NOT improve the coverage of the grid, only it's usefulness.

The problem started by not looking far enough forward. If you build free chargers, but people have to pay to charge at home, local people will always grab some free power when possible. Like seeing a $5 bill on the ground. $5 ain't much money. So do you ignore it?

The model should have ALWAYS been, from day one, a fair price for charging to help expand the SC grid where it's really needed, not just mostly cities. You'd already have far more expansion with monies from the SC usage.

Free is good for the short term only. It is not a benefit to EV buyers in the long run. There are about 140,000 locations in the US to refuel your ICE. But that only takes 5-10 minutes. You would need 3-5 times that number to achieve parity for EVs.

 

[Foxhound199]

The only naysaying I'll do is say that if it gets over 250 miles of range, then many that would have bought a MS will opt for the M3. The M3 looks bigger and nicer than I expected it to.

This might be an unpopular opinion here, but once the 3 scales, I don't think Tesla needs to worry about S sales. That's not to say they don't need the S--the idea that one of the fastest production cars in existence is electric is a huge feather in their cap, and is easily still the most inspirational EV in existence. But car companies like Chevy aren't going to fret too much about corvette sales--the main purpose of the corvette is brand identity, not margins. Just like if you ogle a corvette but settle on a more practical Chevy instead, Tesla will be more than happy to have its flagship S lag in sales if its very existence leads people to buy a 3.

 

[zenmaster]

This might be an unpopular opinion here, but once the 3 scales, I don't think Tesla needs to worry about S sales.

This is the model for all car manufacturers that sell a car in the average car price range. And with Elon thinking 25% gross margin on the 3, I don't see how it would be an unpopular opinion unless people can't do math.

 

[3Victoria]

Here you go:

Tesla’s new Supercharger strategy is a major shift that will enable urban EV ownership

And Charging Is Our Priority

" .... In addition, many sites will be built further off the highway to allow local Tesla drivers to charge quickly when needed, with the goal of making charging ubiquitous in urban centers. ..."