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Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements
- Thread starter Jonathan Hewitt
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- TSLA
You don't have to skim through 148 pages:
Tesla Motors Announces Date for Fourth Quarter Full Year 2013 Financial Results | Press Releases | Tesla Motors
Definitely not as brave as you with the options. I'm licking my wounds from Q3, but I am fully invested. Life savings and all...
Haha. Love it!
I'm actually pretty relaxed. Just one month ago my portfolio was 50% of what it is today. If I go back to that level it won't change a thing. I'm actually more worried about missing a big move up
Minimax regret theory? I operate the same way. I never realized this was a real theory until I took a risk analysis class.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regret_(decision_theory)
GasDoc
Member
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
GasDoc
Member
I'm unhedged in the sense I just have TSLA stock. Q3's ER burned me so bad, I'm not paying the IV on any particular bet. I'll take the IV though and did sell a weekly ATM put a few minutes ago. If things go well, it's free money. Even if things drop $10, it's free money. I think I'm relatively capped on losses as it's hard to see the stock dropping back below $180ish point since that's where it went to over the week after Tesla announced the 6900 deliveries.
I am in the same boat unwilling to pay for IV. I thought about selling a put but no margin on my account so I would have to come up with cash to secure it.
I'd sell calls too, but while I think the downside is capped, I didn't see a call I was willing to sell because god knows what sort of market frenzy can happen, even if it's short lived I could be forced to sell (the stock is LONG and I don't want to reset that clock).
Johann Koeber
Happy Owner
Nice to see I'm not the only one going all in unhedged.... TMC Investors discussions is the first site I open on the comp every morning, that's how awesome you all are
Same here, brother.
pz1975
Active Member
I am 50% unhedged calls ranging from this week to March22, 45% LEAPS and 5% bull call spreads, one bull out spread and a few weekly 170 puts I bought after the recent f***. Pretty much all bullish! Picked up another 15% today on the dip. I am not as stressed as Q3 for some reason. Not sure if it is my gut telling me TSLA will beat or because of the cushion I created with the Jan 14 pop.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
I'm going to be in a meeting during today's call. Will someone be posting highlights as they occur? I'll just keep refreshing my screen. (Pleeeease?)
I too was struck by how expensive options were, so that led me to cash in all my option holdings (and a covered call) and hope to buy back in after the dust settles and premiums drop. I'm still nominally long with TSLA common stock.
My feeling is more or less in line with DaveT and his spreadsheet: non-GAAP earnings of 0.29 per share or so and GAAP loss of a few cents. Tesla has a history of being minimalist with its reports and I don't expect that to change. I think they'll guide for 35,000 deliveries in 2014 with demand exceeding supply. The promised announcement of the gigafactory will include the location and partners, but no details. The market's response is unpredictable, but based on the above my median expectation is as close to "meh" as possible: 5-10 points up followed by 10-15 points down then life goes on.
Good luck to all, especially those with more courage than I to go all in on a bullish outcome. I hope your risk is rewarded and you are able to buy many Model S and Model X with your winnings!
I think what your looking for is this
Fourth Quarter 2013 Financial Results QA Conference Call - LIVE BLOG
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