SolarCity (SCTY)

[Johan]

50 here we come

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Opens pretty much at $50. Lololololol

Edit: The best part of all this is the rational stock valuation for the last 3-6 months was really about $60-80. The shorts held it down with disinformation and now there's room to run.

 

[Rarity]

It's a gusher!

 

[SBenson]

Here is something to chew on

TSLA Short Interest

3/15/2013 - 32.3 Mln shares - stock price $35.29
5/31/2013 - 18.6 Mln shares - stock price $97.76

SCTY Short Interest

11/30/2015 - 32.1 Mln shares - stock price $28.76
1/15/2016 - ?? ??

I hope I am not too crazy expecting a $90+ print in early Jan

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Grab your coat and get your hat
Leave your worry on the doorstep
Just direct your feet
To the sunny side of the street
Can't you hear a pitter pat
And that happy tune is your step
Life can be so sweet
On the sunny side of the street

Looks like SCTY up a bit today

 

[SBenson]

Personally I am not going to sell a single share until I see Short Interest drop below 19 Mln shares.

Don't miss out on the rally people. Hold long and strong!!

 

[JRP3]

Hold long and strong!!

Funny, I thought this company was fundamentally flawed and management was incompetent and deceitful a few days ago....

 

[esk8mw]

A moment of silence for Chanos' portfolio....

Nah, j/k. Burn, Chanos!

 

[Johan]

Funny, I thought this company was fundamentally flawed and management was incompetent and deceitful a few days ago....

It's the ITC. It's always the ITC...

"Don't blame it on the sunshine, don't blame it on the moonlight, blame it on the ITC"

 

[doggusfluffy]

Any predictions for a high today?

 

[Johan]

Any predictions for a high today?

I'll definitely smoke a nice Cohiba tonight after having closed out my Jan16 calls for a 350% profit. Or did you mean some other kind of high?

 

[SBenson]

Funny, I thought this company was fundamentally flawed and management was incompetent and deceitful a few days ago....

I answered that just a few days ago.

Weren't you saying that management was misleading in the financials just a couple weeks ago?

They are. They will continue to do so.

With a very rich 30% ITC it doesn't matter. SCTY will be profitable even if you account everything properly.

Without ITC I am not sure the firm has a workable model if you look at the financials correctly. But with ITC, hell yeah, they have an absolutely workable model.

- - - Updated - - -

Just yesterday I posted this while holding 1000s of shares

As I always complain, all of their costs and cash flows are: aggregated project level cash flows. They are NOT all-inclusive enterprise costs over the installs.

In any case, directionally, lower costs is a good thing. So that is some good news to cheer for.

The other big positive from today's show is that they are talking about RV in installed terms, backing away from bookings. That is a positive move. Using bookings is atrociously deceptive. The gap between cumulative bookings vs installs is more than 40% !! This is while they are saying they can go from booking to install in a matter of days. So all of that gap is BS. They are all dummy bookings. Again, I commend them for trying to come out clean.

- - - Updated - - -

For those who care

The cumulative total of installs is: 1.7 GW
From Q3 Shareholder letter. The very first line from the top.

The cumulative total of bookings is: 2.5 GW
From the Q3 slidedeck, page 7. Divide GRV of 4,373 with $1.78/W figure from bottom

So RV is exaggerated by 47%

If you only use installs, and of Q3 NRV is $22/share (instead of the $33 they mentioned).

So don't be surprised in the Q4 report if you see a dramatic drop in RV/Share as they adjust the methodology.

I am not interested in cheerleading and echo-chambers. I like to say things as I see them.

Given a very rich ITC none of these issues matter. The economics work great. Give 30% guaranteed return on capital to *any* business, it will grow like a weed. SolarCity being a Solar company is on the right side of the history.

Nevertheless, I am NOT backing out from the claim that management has been deceptive.

 

[ggies07]

woohooo! This is what I like to see.

 

[Perfectlogic]

Details on the ITC extension:

2016 - 2019: 30%
2020: 26%
2021: 22%
2022 onwards: 10%

This is insane, I did not expect it to be extended for that long, and a whole 4 more years with 30%. I do not think that is necessary even though I do welcome it as I too am invested in solars (albeit not SCTY). I think the US solar market will be bigger than China in a few years. I guess the understimation of the LCOE reduction curve in solar did end up doing us some good after all.

 

[Grendal]

I hope someone had some ENPH. It's up 85% as of this moment. 25% for SCTY is worth a big party though.

 

[Beckler]

25% gap up today, wth? Wishing I'd bought more 36 Dec 18 calls about now. But I'll take the profit tyvm, about to sell!

 

[jhm]

Let's all show Benson some respect. He was smart to know when to jump back in and stress testing SolarCity's finacials is an unglamorous, but quite worthwhile task. He is an independent investor who does his own homework, and that is exactly what this market needs. Cheers.

 

[Hogfighter]

I smell a short squeeze.

 

[Johan]

I hope someone had some ENPH. It's up 85% as of this moment. 25% for SCTY is worth a big party though.

Yeah but the YTD of ENPH is anything but beautiful:

 

[Hogfighter]

Let's all show Benson some respect. He was smart to know when to jump back in and stress testing SolarCity's finacials is an unglamorous, but quite worthwhile task. He is an independent investor who does his own homework, and that is exactly what this market needs. Cheers.

+1.