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The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Yeah but the YTD of ENPH is anything but beautiful:
I've been watching ENPH almost as long as TSLA and SCTY. It's not been a happy stock this year. Good to see some bounce back. I have a friend invested in the company.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Indeed, SolarEdge has been taking market share from Enphase. SEDG has the technological lead, while ENPH has scale and incumbency. In a rising demand scenario, scale has a big advantage. So it is right for ENPH to jump up like this. SEDG, too, is up 16%.
FTR, I'm invested in SEDG, but not ENPH.
gigglehertz
Member
+1 also
Although his gloominess was starting to affect me recently, and I was having a bit of a crisis of faith. I was thinking about cashing out and buying a used Leaf instead of holding out for my Model 3. I feel a lot better today. Still I feel a need to be cautious since I cannot refute anything he says. I just got approved for options trading so I might dip my toe in with a protective put around earnings.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Irrational negativity is just as detrimental to forming a clear value picture as irrational exuberance. I'm glad everyone is making money here, but buying high and selling low based on emotion should not be encouraged.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
In all fairness I believe SBenson sold based on negativity stemming not from "emotion" but rather from his analysis of the financials. And the fact that he was not counting on such a generous extension of the tax credit.
We shouldn't turn a blind eye to the things he's been pointing to: changes in accounting and moving away from the Retained Value metric to the new concepts for reasons that are a bit unclear.
JASO briefly exceed the $9.69 buy-out offer price, reaching a high of $9.75! I took the opportunity to cash out of my stock, but it'll be interesting to see what happens to the offer now.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I certainly agree that free analytics are always welcome. Especially(as Elon would say) pessimistic anlaytics from a party interested in the success of the object organization. However, the rapid swing to highly irrational simply isn't helpful. When we start talking about fair market cap being based on current conservative retained value of a market leader growing at 89% annnually, I have a tough time seeing that as helpful to creating a clear picture of value.
I'll now shut my mouth so as not to put a damper on the Chanos roast!
jhm
Well-Known Member
BTW, I am seeing no joy among oil investors today. They are finally getting a lift of a 40 year old ban on oil export, and yet the market says "meh" to oil E&P. XOP is flat, and TAN is up 7.3%. I think the market knows who got the better deal last night.
Moreover, I am hopeful that the market may continue to decouple solar and oil. No doubt solar shorts thought that low oil prices were bad solar, but they will pay dearly for that mistake. Natural gas has fallen to $1.81/MMBTU from about $2.08 a week ago. Solar will continue to squeeze natural gas, and gas will continue to squeeze oil. There is no joy in Mudville tonight.
Moreover, I am hopeful that the market may continue to decouple solar and oil. No doubt solar shorts thought that low oil prices were bad solar, but they will pay dearly for that mistake. Natural gas has fallen to $1.81/MMBTU from about $2.08 a week ago. Solar will continue to squeeze natural gas, and gas will continue to squeeze oil. There is no joy in Mudville tonight.
On a separate topic, in anticipation of Wind PTC extension, for lack of knowing anything better, I bought NextEra (NEE) about two weeks ago. It is sort of a blue chip type stock but still has a small bump up today. Anyone know anything about NEE? I am debating how long I want to hold this for.
gigglehertz
Member
To clarify my protective puts at earnings statement, if SB is right and retained earnings get revised down, that would obviously be very bad in the short term. My simplistic assessment of the stock value is based entirely on that plus growth rate. I'm not saying it will happen, but it could. I haven't had a chance to view the investor presentation yet (can't stream at work, was busy last night, kicking myself) so not sure what their current guidance is. But like he himself is saying, at this point it almost doesn't matter.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Apologies for asking this for the 20th time, but how do we track short interest day to day? We know it hit 32M a while back and there's an update coming at Christmas, but what's the best way to see how much short interest might be cleared off? Just guess based on a percentage of total daily volume?
Speaking of volume.....9.3M thus far today!
Speaking of volume.....9.3M thus far today!
Gerasimental
Member
Trying to gauge how much fuel is left in this rocket. At present we have 7mil shares traded, while short interest has risen from the last time the stock was at 50 by about the same amount. My intuition tells me that this suggests the panic covering has mostly been done, and we wont see a continuation of this vertical lift-off. Is there any sense in that?
I suppose many of the shares traded this morning may have been new longs entering on the ITC news, so perhaps there are still quite a few underwater shorts out there that have held on, so there may be a little more fuel left, but I think the next big move will be when there is a catalyst (probably a few analyst notes, which I expect to be very positive) or a catalytic move by some larger shorts.
I suppose many of the shares traded this morning may have been new longs entering on the ITC news, so perhaps there are still quite a few underwater shorts out there that have held on, so there may be a little more fuel left, but I think the next big move will be when there is a catalyst (probably a few analyst notes, which I expect to be very positive) or a catalytic move by some larger shorts.
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