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I couldn't agree more. One point on one of the Democratic debates Bernie was asked to defend his position about climate change being the most important foreign problem we have, he missed a response like this: "the Syrian problem started because of a six year long drought which wiped out many in the agricultural sector. Also, there are news reports the Middle East as a whole is experiencing the worst drought in 900 years." Politics in the Middle East are bad enough as it is; how much more they are because of climate change is just a warning of more to come.
jhm
Well-Known Member
'A battery in every basement': How the lowly water heater could power the smart grid | Utility Dive
This is a good source on smart water heaters and other smart energy devices.
The opportunity with water heaters is much bigger than I thought. It is the only common appliance that actually stores energy. A single heater stores 12 to 14 kWh of energy. That is actually quite alot compared to a 7 kWh Powerwall. Of course, storing electical energy in a battery is much more useful than storing thermal energy, but still 12 kWh can soak up a lot of surplus solar. So it totally makes sense that SolarCity would pair this with solar panels. The cost is also cheap enough that some utilities are paying for them straight up. So this seems a real opportunity for SolarCity anywhere NEM or flat rates are compromised.
This is a good source on smart water heaters and other smart energy devices.
The opportunity with water heaters is much bigger than I thought. It is the only common appliance that actually stores energy. A single heater stores 12 to 14 kWh of energy. That is actually quite alot compared to a 7 kWh Powerwall. Of course, storing electical energy in a battery is much more useful than storing thermal energy, but still 12 kWh can soak up a lot of surplus solar. So it totally makes sense that SolarCity would pair this with solar panels. The cost is also cheap enough that some utilities are paying for them straight up. So this seems a real opportunity for SolarCity anywhere NEM or flat rates are compromised.
Great thinking. I may have stumbled into that when I got the Connect Plus gateway for my Geospring heat pump water heater. Previously I controlled it by a relay that ran it during the super off peak rate. Now I can set schedules based on temperature. There is an opportunity for energy management with these devices and Solar City would be wise to integrate all of this in a system.
I've been watching the Arizona corporate commission hearings on UNS utility net metering and proposed three part rate design and have to admit, the future is clearly in Solarcity's favor nationwide in future rate cases on net metering.
First, the utility wants to put solar customers in a separate customer class. However, they haven't done a cost of service study on what it costs to serve solar customers. This is standard procedure to put anyone in a separate rate class, but I guess not for solar. They say there is a cost, but don't have a single data point to prove it. I have to say the same situation is also in Nevada. Nevada just put solar customers in a separate rate class with no cost of service study on rooftop only customers. This will be a significant problem for a commission to dismiss, since if they allow it, it shows a discrimination toward specific utility customers since they are treated differently when evaluating rates. Across the nation, the same discrimination situation will happen if a cost of study is not conducted on rooftop solar customers by themselves. This then leads to actual analysis on costs associated with rooftop solar in public hearings and put on the record for all to see. Those numbers will reveal a different story then the "assumed" cost model utilities are using and will be in Solarcity's favor.
Second, they are saying all rooftop solar customers are being "subsidized" by other non-solar ratepayers and this is the most pressing issue to stop this subsidization now. However, even if everyone of UNS customers are causing a cost on other customers, UNS actually has 92% subsidization happening from other causation points. Wow, if the goal is to reduce subsidization then how come 92% of the problem is ignored to focus on rooftop solar? Oh by the way, UNS doesn't even know what the cost to serve solar customers, but they know it does and it's the cause of rising rates on other customers. This argument fails even basic scrutiny and is very relevant to all utilities across the nation in their net metering arguments.
Third, and I'm just going to stop here since there are many many other points to shoot down, the utility sees any cost saving by a customer as a problem. In order to justify "revenue requirements" they have to identify the costs. The utility sees costs(with guaranteed rate of return imbedded) should equal revenue. If revenue does not cover cost, then they need to raise rates on rate classes. It was shocking that the utility representative said that if customers save money, then that is cost that does not provide the "revenue requirement" needed to cover the cost, so they will need to either redesign the rate or charge more on the rate classe(s). He said the goal in rate design is to be "perfect" and he sees himself well retired before that will ever happen if ever(and he laughed at this too). By this logic, no matter how much customers save, they will ultimately have to pay whatever the utility needs to recover those savings either through "proper rate design" or increasing rates under current rate design. This is the fatal flaw under the monopoly utility model as it is and will be clearly exposed as customer sided energy efficiency and energy production products proliferate. As it stands, as DG proliferates and reaches scale, the monopoly utility model will have to be dismantled and a new utility model develop nationwide. It is inevitable since there is no way utilities can justify cost-revenue requirement business model under a commission. As such, more cases that go through the current "rate case" process, the more and more evidence to demonstrate this becomes accumulated. Solarcity and other DG will benefit wildly as they will build even more negotiating power to move to a utility as service model.
The question is how long will this take? Will the national net metering law be the massive catalyst that will get us there sooner then later?
Wild times of change...
First, the utility wants to put solar customers in a separate customer class. However, they haven't done a cost of service study on what it costs to serve solar customers. This is standard procedure to put anyone in a separate rate class, but I guess not for solar. They say there is a cost, but don't have a single data point to prove it. I have to say the same situation is also in Nevada. Nevada just put solar customers in a separate rate class with no cost of service study on rooftop only customers. This will be a significant problem for a commission to dismiss, since if they allow it, it shows a discrimination toward specific utility customers since they are treated differently when evaluating rates. Across the nation, the same discrimination situation will happen if a cost of study is not conducted on rooftop solar customers by themselves. This then leads to actual analysis on costs associated with rooftop solar in public hearings and put on the record for all to see. Those numbers will reveal a different story then the "assumed" cost model utilities are using and will be in Solarcity's favor.
Second, they are saying all rooftop solar customers are being "subsidized" by other non-solar ratepayers and this is the most pressing issue to stop this subsidization now. However, even if everyone of UNS customers are causing a cost on other customers, UNS actually has 92% subsidization happening from other causation points. Wow, if the goal is to reduce subsidization then how come 92% of the problem is ignored to focus on rooftop solar? Oh by the way, UNS doesn't even know what the cost to serve solar customers, but they know it does and it's the cause of rising rates on other customers. This argument fails even basic scrutiny and is very relevant to all utilities across the nation in their net metering arguments.
Third, and I'm just going to stop here since there are many many other points to shoot down, the utility sees any cost saving by a customer as a problem. In order to justify "revenue requirements" they have to identify the costs. The utility sees costs(with guaranteed rate of return imbedded) should equal revenue. If revenue does not cover cost, then they need to raise rates on rate classes. It was shocking that the utility representative said that if customers save money, then that is cost that does not provide the "revenue requirement" needed to cover the cost, so they will need to either redesign the rate or charge more on the rate classe(s). He said the goal in rate design is to be "perfect" and he sees himself well retired before that will ever happen if ever(and he laughed at this too). By this logic, no matter how much customers save, they will ultimately have to pay whatever the utility needs to recover those savings either through "proper rate design" or increasing rates under current rate design. This is the fatal flaw under the monopoly utility model as it is and will be clearly exposed as customer sided energy efficiency and energy production products proliferate. As it stands, as DG proliferates and reaches scale, the monopoly utility model will have to be dismantled and a new utility model develop nationwide. It is inevitable since there is no way utilities can justify cost-revenue requirement business model under a commission. As such, more cases that go through the current "rate case" process, the more and more evidence to demonstrate this becomes accumulated. Solarcity and other DG will benefit wildly as they will build even more negotiating power to move to a utility as service model.
The question is how long will this take? Will the national net metering law be the massive catalyst that will get us there sooner then later?
Wild times of change...
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I agree. Privately owned utilities are incumbent monopolies, with regulated profit margins. Muncipal utilities amplify this by providing civil service job guarantees to their employees. This creates a wide spread corruption that is incapable of competing without regulatory capture.
Distributed generation will empower the "Democratization" of energy.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Up nicely today along with TSLA on a very bad oil day.
Can someone decipher this SEC filing for me?
SolarCity - Statement of Changes of Beneficial Ownership
Can someone decipher this SEC filing for me?
SolarCity - Statement of Changes of Beneficial Ownership
Looks like Fisher Draper and Jurvetson redistributed a lot of shares of SCTY from and between their funds and personal trusts. The distributions are not all evenly disposed of and acquired by other funds so entities outside of their organization may have received about 75,000 shares.
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gigglehertz
Member
doggusfluffy
Closed
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Will we get another tank when 1Q earnings are announced May the 3rd? Logic dictates that we will since guidance was already revised lower for that quarter and the algos should sound the alarm again, but sentiment could flip at any moment and trigger the climb. Thoughts on this?
My thought is that we follow the normal path of drifting upward through Mar/Apr perhaps with a min-squeeze up to $50+, but will still tank again on earnings day. Is that possible? Now that I type it out it seems unlikely. The East Coast is getting more an more saturated with solar, investors will get the picture just like they did when they could actually test drive a Model S in 2012.
Looking to advise my homies for final 2017/2018 LEAP purchases before the Big Squeeze that should happen between now and Inauguration Day. First week of May sounds like the time to buy Jan2017's.
My thought is that we follow the normal path of drifting upward through Mar/Apr perhaps with a min-squeeze up to $50+, but will still tank again on earnings day. Is that possible? Now that I type it out it seems unlikely. The East Coast is getting more an more saturated with solar, investors will get the picture just like they did when they could actually test drive a Model S in 2012.
Looking to advise my homies for final 2017/2018 LEAP purchases before the Big Squeeze that should happen between now and Inauguration Day. First week of May sounds like the time to buy Jan2017's.
My expectation is that there will be yet another big drop with Q1 ER.
Revenues will be relatively low due to seasonality and there are one-time charges associated with NV pullout. These things will put pressure on cash-flows. I'm sure Management will do all sorts of number magic in trying to isolate these things but I don't know if investors will have enough patience/tolerance to understand all that, given that the model is already very complex. My suspicion is that the bots will puke as all the one-time stuff is hard to code.
Ultimately in my view, it's all about cash-flows. We should see "bigger and more frequent" deals like Brad Buss envisioned in Q3 ER CC. The latest ABS deal was for a mere 35.6MWs filed on Feb 5th. For 1.25GWs of installs, we should see twice as much on a monthly basis! This is something we should keep an eye on.
Short rebate rate is hovering at around 90%!! This is both exciting and scary at the same time. Remember, generally speaking shorts are very smart, that mostly get things right. Yeah, occasionally they get it wrong like they did will Tesla (but to be fair even the shrewdest longs get things wrong occasionally too). Overall as a group they get things right in general. Here is an anecdote - link. To my cautionary sentiment, the very high short interest is a negative.
I don't know whats all brewing in the legal/regulatory landscape which is causing the current up-trend. It's become way too complicated for me to follow closely.
Revenues will be relatively low due to seasonality and there are one-time charges associated with NV pullout. These things will put pressure on cash-flows. I'm sure Management will do all sorts of number magic in trying to isolate these things but I don't know if investors will have enough patience/tolerance to understand all that, given that the model is already very complex. My suspicion is that the bots will puke as all the one-time stuff is hard to code.
Ultimately in my view, it's all about cash-flows. We should see "bigger and more frequent" deals like Brad Buss envisioned in Q3 ER CC. The latest ABS deal was for a mere 35.6MWs filed on Feb 5th. For 1.25GWs of installs, we should see twice as much on a monthly basis! This is something we should keep an eye on.
Short rebate rate is hovering at around 90%!! This is both exciting and scary at the same time. Remember, generally speaking shorts are very smart, that mostly get things right. Yeah, occasionally they get it wrong like they did will Tesla (but to be fair even the shrewdest longs get things wrong occasionally too). Overall as a group they get things right in general. Here is an anecdote - link. To my cautionary sentiment, the very high short interest is a negative.
I don't know whats all brewing in the legal/regulatory landscape which is causing the current up-trend. It's become way too complicated for me to follow closely.
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I don't know the in's and out's of the corporate bond world, but it seemed like Jan/Feb were insane across the board so reason dictates a frontier operation like SCTY would have trouble. Looks to me as though that whole mess has passed and ABS demand remains high even at 100+% of install costs.
As for short interest being so high......that is a gift from the gods. If you're looking for massive upswing, I'm not sure how you could see it as anything else. This stock is artificially low to the tune of at least 200% due to shorting and FUD. The squeeze will be insane, just like TSLA. Unless of course you don't think solar has a future in the US.
If I had to bet, I'd say another major tank after 1Q earnings. Hell, these guys are smart enough to play the movements both ways. It'll run up to $50 and they'll run it all the way back to $30 or lower, taking a slice in both directions I'm sure. Missing the boat is always a concern though.........
As for short interest being so high......that is a gift from the gods. If you're looking for massive upswing, I'm not sure how you could see it as anything else. This stock is artificially low to the tune of at least 200% due to shorting and FUD. The squeeze will be insane, just like TSLA. Unless of course you don't think solar has a future in the US.
If I had to bet, I'd say another major tank after 1Q earnings. Hell, these guys are smart enough to play the movements both ways. It'll run up to $50 and they'll run it all the way back to $30 or lower, taking a slice in both directions I'm sure. Missing the boat is always a concern though.........
jhm
Well-Known Member
It may be smart to wait to accumulate shares until just after the earnings release. Ignore the rumor, buy the news.
The Federal ITC passed, the stock spiked. Guess what happened? The short-interest went UP!
Then subsequently the stock slid down dramatically. Guess what happened? Short-interest went DOWN.
Shorts have been quite correct lately with respect to SCTY. I don't know if they have ears on the ground or what. But they do seem to sense the price action better.
Then subsequently the stock slid down dramatically. Guess what happened? Short-interest went DOWN.
Shorts have been quite correct lately with respect to SCTY. I don't know if they have ears on the ground or what. But they do seem to sense the price action better.
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
People here are mostly investors, not traders. At this point folks should have bought in at $18, but knowing how long we'll be in this range is crucial to LEAP purchasing. Timing this upswing(should it happen) is another in a very limited number of opportunities to ride the Musk wave. It's not like he has his hand in an unending string of ventures for the market can undervalue, this may be it.
Short players know that a company with this much potential and uncertainty can be manipulated with great ease, so they do it and make tons of money. However, like all gamblers they will at some point make one too many bets and get burned just like TSLA. The smart ones have been making a killing and jump out when the writing is on the wall, the majority will get sucked into yet another Musk squeeze.
Starting to look like there's a TSLA squeeze coming too if the Model 3 reveal goes well. Interesting times.
Short players know that a company with this much potential and uncertainty can be manipulated with great ease, so they do it and make tons of money. However, like all gamblers they will at some point make one too many bets and get burned just like TSLA. The smart ones have been making a killing and jump out when the writing is on the wall, the majority will get sucked into yet another Musk squeeze.
Starting to look like there's a TSLA squeeze coming too if the Model 3 reveal goes well. Interesting times.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Looks like this Flint water/ energy bill won't be voted on this week. I'm assuming this is the bill Foghat was talking about that would lock in the grandfathering of net metering nationwide. Need this to pass ASAP.
It looks like New Jersey just passed a law to buy 80% of their juice from renewable sources by 2050, but will likely get vetoed by Christie who is somehow still the governor of that state.
It looks like New Jersey just passed a law to buy 80% of their juice from renewable sources by 2050, but will likely get vetoed by Christie who is somehow still the governor of that state.
doggusfluffy
Closed
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/16/b...inancial-alchemy-thats-choking-sunedison.html
I detest following the political antics, but this blurb in Politico had a summary of the holdup in energy bill.
I detest following the political antics, but this blurb in Politico had a summary of the holdup in energy bill.
Sweet revenge against coal: North America's largest coal power plant to become 44-MW solar farm
Ontario completed a phase out of coal power in 2014, which included the shutdown of the Nanticoke plant.
The site's redevelopment into a solar farm will be led by Sun Edison Canadian Construction LP, which will partner with Six Nations Development Corp. and Ontario Power Generation.
Ontario completed a phase out of coal power in 2014, which included the shutdown of the Nanticoke plant.
The site's redevelopment into a solar farm will be led by Sun Edison Canadian Construction LP, which will partner with Six Nations Development Corp. and Ontario Power Generation.
Utah Passes a Major Clean Energy Bill That Elicits ‘Mixed Feelings’
So this article backs up what you are saying, just in a different location. I can't believe this:
So they say solar puts a cost on ratepayers who don't have it, but are now making ratepayers in general cover their own costs?
Then there is this: Wasted money towards coal plants
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