SolarCity (SCTY)

[gigglehertz]

On top of all of that, this thread has been abnormally quiet for the past few months. Even today, this thread only received 10 posts (from 7 people). Interesting measure of what people are and are not paying attention to.

There isn't much really to discuss. The stock seems to drift along up or down at random on no news. At least with TSLA we can track X/3 reservations, track deliveries around the world, see the supercharger network build out progress, hear about a cool new feature or update, get an occasional tweet from Elon, etc. An informed reader of this forum can make a pretty good guess as to how the earnings call will go. With SCTY we have basically nothing to go on but pure speculation. There's nothing really on the horizon to get excited about either way. Every post is either why SCTY is doomed or why they will be a huge success. Why one expert says oil is about to plunge and another one says maybe shoot up. I tried "catching a falling knife" as you guys say and played around with options but haven't been able to make consistent returns. I'm working on my career at the moment so just going to hold onto my shares for a few years and spend less time worrying about the day to day noise.

 

[Tenable]

There isn't much really to discuss. The stock seems to drift along up or down at random on no news. At least with TSLA we can track X/3 reservations, track deliveries around the world, see the supercharger network build out progress, hear about a cool new feature or update, get an occasional tweet from Elon, etc. An informed reader of this forum can make a pretty good guess as to how the earnings call will go. With SCTY we have basically nothing to go on but pure speculation. There's nothing really on the horizon to get excited about either way. Every post is either why SCTY is doomed or why they will be a huge success. Why one expert says oil is about to plunge and another one says maybe shoot up. I tried "catching a falling knife" as you guys say and played around with options but haven't been able to make consistent returns. I'm working on my career at the moment so just going to hold onto my shares for a few years and spend less time worrying about the day to day noise.

Giggle, this is definitely the best strategy with SCTY. I'd highly recommend loaning your shares, you can often get between 20-40% in return. Makes waiting quite lucrative.

 

[gigglehertz]

I'd highly recommend loaning your shares, you can often get between 20-40% in return. Makes waiting quite lucrative.

I would absolutely do that, but my discount broker (Capital One) doesn't allow me to do that.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Maybe today's action is related to Arizona? I've heard no news, but the arbitration hearing that was announced more than a month ago should be progressing, right?

 

[dandurston]

I think today's nice move upwards is because of growing publicity and realization of the value for SCTYs new loan product. A few analysts came out saying how great it is. And it does look great. I believe it's all run by another company that's taking the default risk in exchange for the interest, so SCTY is basically able to get full money up front for their systems. If this goes to 50% of their sales (maybe 2018) their finances should look great. For consumers it looks good with shorter terms, low interest and the ability to retain tax credits. It could be the solution to 1 of the 3 big problems facing SCTY: slow cash flows (the other 2 being regulations and sales costs).

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This is precisely why you don't want to be in this line though. In the long run, anyone can approach these third party lending facilitators and provide a similar product.

I'm perfectly fine with doing profitable installs on an interim basis if the market demands it, but solar-based energy-as-a-service is where the gravy's at moving forward. Do not diminish the brand!

 

[dakh]

I'm not an industry insider but to me it looks like "rooftop installations as commodity" view is oversimplifying things. Anyone can cobble together a desktop computer or laptop from parts but there's a lot more to it when it comes to making a product that consumers want. To continue the analogy the way I see the market evolving is we're at the stage where just having a working PC cobbled together from whatever the cost effective parts are available is what folks think they want.

But as the market evolves two things will happen. First, these systems will have to become quite a bit more integrated and sophisticated in managing energy production and consumption, and second consumers would start being more sophisticated and picky about what they get. Sure yes commodity view would still be relevant for a substantial part of the market that is super price sensitive. There's also going to be an opportunity to offer value on top of that which will require scale, regulatory compliance, integration, etc. that a small installer can't offer (unless we're talking about really high end stuff, analogous of a custom built PC). There's all these super thin margin PC makers out there but there's also Apple and Lenovo that make stuff that people pay a very good premium for.

All this time I was trying to answer the question about why is it so quiet here and to me I think until SCTY can clearly demonstrate that the market allows for an "Apple" niche and that SCTY will be there to take that position it'll all be the ups and downs of short term regulatory and execution details which people are burned out from following.

 

[Jack6591]

Carter to meet privately with Elon Musk

The military has expressed tremendous interest in renewable energy technology. Could it be that this meeting covers more than rocket science?

 

[angstrom]

My hunch is they want to roll out the solar loans together with storage. With both receiving the tax credit it makes sense to bundle a 10 year solar loan with a battery lease. Own the panels, but solarcity controls the arbitrage. The electron production is still just a commodity as it has been.

 

[Tenable]

I would absolutely do that, but my discount broker (Capital One) doesn't allow me to do that.

Giggle, if you don't mind spending a few minutes, try switching to Interactive Brokers. They are among the cheapest, .70 a contract for options and $1 for stock trades. They also allow you to loan your shares. Hope this helps!

 

[SBenson]

@electracity You posted in the past links to various local installer pricing levels. Could you re-post please?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Truly amazing. The shareholder conference was 1 hour ago and not a single comment about it. Not even a single person asking why the link on Solar City's website for the webcast isn't working. Elon, Lyndon, or anyone with the ability to fix the webcast link - If you can see this message please ask someone to fix the link to the webcast.

 

[tander]

Carter to meet privately with Elon Musk

The military has expressed tremendous interest in renewable energy technology. Could it be that this meeting covers more than rocket science?

I hope so, it makes so much sense. Not sure how true this is but I recall hearing that many of the deaths/injuries in Afghanistan were not actually from combat, but rather from fuel supply convoys being attacked.

 

[tander]

Truly amazing. The shareholder conference was 1 hour ago and not a single comment about it. Not even a single person asking why the link on Solar City's website for the webcast isn't working. Elon, Lyndon, or anyone with the ability to fix the webcast link - If you can see this message please ask someone to fix the link to the webcast.

I was going to ask. I was looking for SolarCity stuff and ended up here by default. Utilities are not exactly front page material but it would be cool if they had a webcast at least.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Is this like another "Investor's Day"?

 

[Tenable]

Truly amazing. The shareholder conference was 1 hour ago and not a single comment about it. Not even a single person asking why the link on Solar City's website for the webcast isn't working. Elon, Lyndon, or anyone with the ability to fix the webcast link - If you can see this message please ask someone to fix the link to the webcast.

Have you found a working link yet? I'm having trouble, currently on hold with Solar City.

 

[neroden]

OK, so I have now spent (wasted?) a fair amount of time following SolarCity. So here's my current assessment for what it's worth. This is not investment advice.

I think SolarCity is throwing business models at the wall and seeing what sticks. I don't think they've found a sustainable business model yet, but they seem to have tried dozens of business models already. I think they're trying "agile development" on business models. This might actually work; if they can iterate business models faster than their competitors, they might stumble across the best business model first. On the other hand, they might not.

 

[tander]

OK, so I have now spent (wasted?) a fair amount of time following SolarCity. So here's my current assessment for what it's worth. This is not investment advice.

I think SolarCity is throwing business models at the wall and seeing what sticks. I don't think they've found a sustainable business model yet, but they seem to have tried dozens of business models already. I think they're trying "agile development" on business models. This might actually work; if they can iterate business models faster than their competitors, they might stumble across the best business model first. On the other hand, they might not.

This term is pretty overused, but solarcity is a "disruptor". That basically means that their whole thing is to find a better business model than the existing status quo. So basically they just pick a plan that get's them to the next plan until they are the 800lb gorilla. My understanding is the plan for now is to start picking their markets more carefully rather than just all out growth, and then probably go back to all out growth when they are making their own panels and pairing them with storage. In the short-term that might not look pretty, but in the long-term it sounds pretty smart.

 

[tander]

Have you found a working link yet? I'm having trouble, currently on hold with Solar City.

Did they have a webcast last year?

 

[Tenable]

Truly amazing. The shareholder conference was 1 hour ago and not a single comment about it. Not even a single person asking why the link on Solar City's website for the webcast isn't working. Elon, Lyndon, or anyone with the ability to fix the webcast link - If you can see this message please ask someone to fix the link to the webcast.

I heard back from SCTY, apparently they do not webcast their shareholder meetings. :-/