SolarCity (SCTY)

[TheTalkingMule]

OK, so I have now spent (wasted?) a fair amount of time following SolarCity. So here's my current assessment for what it's worth. This is not investment advice.

I think SolarCity is throwing business models at the wall and seeing what sticks. I don't think they've found a sustainable business model yet, but they seem to have tried dozens of business models already. I think they're trying "agile development" on business models. This might actually work; if they can iterate business models faster than their competitors, they might stumble across the best business model first. On the other hand, they might not.

If you think this is the case then you haven't done enough time following SCTY. The PPA model is the logical way to integrate a new type of energy provider into the equation, the market has just not absorbed it yet. Purchasing outright is perfectly fine, but I still don't see the wider population wanting to handle the in's and out's of power generation. Keep in mind we're still working primarily with early adopters here, people like me WANT to be involved in this every day. I believe most folks do not.

Keep an eye on sales cost and when it starts to drift back toward $.50/W with a clear believable plan for $.25/W......BUY!

 

[electracity]

@electracity You posted in the past links to various local installer pricing levels. Could you re-post please?

What Does a 5 kW Solar System Cost? | EnergySage

 

[SBenson]

What Does a 5 kW Solar System Cost? | EnergySage

That's pretty informative. Thanks

 

[doggusfluffy]

Back to the Future: What Role Will Electric Utilities Play in 2030?

“Just as the independent power producer opened electricity generation to competition, so are new distributed energy resources opening the provision of local electric service to competition,” they wrote. “And as the natural monopoly rationale erodes, new regulatory paradigms are needed.”

 

[SBenson]

I heard back from SCTY, apparently they do not webcast their shareholder meetings. :-/

Because who knows what happens there

 

[doggusfluffy]

SolarCity CEO Lyndon Rive’s Salary Is $77 Million. Mark Zuckerberg’s Is $5 Million

SolarCity has new global sales head

SolarCity has previously announced ambitions to expand into the Mexican market and could be planning to target Australia with self-consumption energy packages that include storage with partner Tesla.

 

[kenliles]

Another interesting step
Apple establishes Apple Energy LLC subsidiary

Apple establishes 'Apple Energy' to resell green energy back to providers

"Apple has meanwhile told the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission it should meet the criteria for selling power at market rates rather than wholesale, since it doesn't have major influence in the energy industry and can't impact prices. Should it get permission, it could start reselling power within 60 days of June 6."

 

[neroden]

If you think this is the case then you haven't done enough time following SCTY. The PPA model is the logical way to integrate a new type of energy provider into the equation, the market has just not absorbed it yet.

I'm actually quite sure personally that the PPA model is no good, because rooftop solar PPAs routinely have worse TCO compared to buying outright, buying with a bank loan, or even leasing, *and* they actually lower the value of your house. If you have a different opinion on PPAs, I won't argue with you any further.

 

[Krugerrand]

Because who knows what happens there

Probably stripping down titanium bikes and selling the parts on the black market. Just a guess.

 

[dalalsid]

I'm actually quite sure personally that the PPA model is no good, because rooftop solar PPAs routinely have worse TCO compared to buying outright, buying with a bank loan, or even leasing, *and* they actually lower the value of your house. If you have a different opinion on PPAs, I won't argue with you any further.

PPA = utility with price of power known in advance for 20 years. So however bad a PPA is, it is still ahead of the utility, right?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Saying some form of managed non-ownership model has much greater cost of ownership is as silly as the folks pointing to $1.70/W "utility scale" installs vs. $3.30/W residential installs as if it's going to last forever. The vast majority of the cost difference is due to market immaturity in the residential world and will level out very quickly once solar is mainstream in most markets.

"Utility scale" projects don't have to pay for sales effort, period. That's a 1/3 savings right off the top. The only true advantage is efficiency due to scale, which is obviously not insignificant.

But how long can this insane dynamic possibly last? Is the internet going to stop working?

 

[doggusfluffy]

http://azdailysun.com/news/local/me...cle_9ffe022d-c6a2-5740-86b6-1d77740070b2.html

Officials with SolarCity and Arizona Public Service Co. met just once with a mediator to try to work out a deal before suspending the negotiations.

SolarCity adamant about Buffalo job creation

The company expects to finish construction on the plant later this year. When production ramps up in 2017, the company will first focus on hiring the minimum of 500 people for manufacturing jobs. Then, the company will begin addressing the other 960 or so jobs remaining outside of the manufacturing sector.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

SCTY needs to scrap this mediation if it's clear that the utility has no intention of following through. They're just trying to stall their way through election season so the voter initiative doesn't make the ballot.

 

[doggusfluffy]

SCTY needs to scrap this mediation if it's clear that the utility has no intention of following through. They're just trying to stall their way through election season so the voter initiative doesn't make the ballot.

Yep, looks like the stalling worked unless they have a boatload of signatures already...

Solar Settlement Talks Brokered by Governor Ducey Have Been 'Suspended'

It's too late for the group to resurrect its plan for a pro-solar ballot measure, because the deadline for submitting signed petitions is July 7. In any case, whatever hope there once was for the talks seems to have been overshadowed by protests and criticism of a planned Arizona Public Service rate hike that stands to devastate the state's rooftop-solar industry.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Well the *sugar* has hit the fan in AZ. Everyone from the AG down to the utility regulators got a little visit from the FBI yesterday.

 

[ggr]

Well the *sugar* has hit the fan in AZ. Everyone from the AG down to the utility regulators got a little visit from the FBI yesterday.

Wow. More detail, or a link, or something please! Solar stocks in general took a real hit yesterday, and I have no idea why.

 

[gigglehertz]

Wow. More detail, or a link, or something please! Solar stocks in general took a real hit yesterday, and I have no idea why.

FBI questions former utility regulator, APS, Corporation Commission

FBI interviews former Arizona utility regulator over election issues

They seem to trying to "follow the money." If they don't get shut down by a Trump win this could get interesting.

 

[neroden]

"Utility scale" projects don't have to pay for sales effort, period.

Not actually true. It's a different sort of sales, but they have to prepare a huge flurry of paperwork to make an auction bid to get their electricity attached to the grid and bought by the wholesale markets. And they have to prepare presentations to secure financing. This is pretty much what the residential sales people are doing, if you think about it... trying to get a homeowner to finance a solar system by convincing them that the electricity is cheaper than the alternatives.

The utility scale guys have the advantage that they're pitching to a much shorter list of customers, but it's still basically sales costs!

That's a 1/3 savings right off the top. The only true advantage is efficiency due to scale, which is obviously not insignificant.

But how long can this insane dynamic possibly last? Is the internet going to stop working?

I'd love to know the answer to that. I'm waiting until the elevated sales & overhead costs of US rooftop solar drop to German / Australian levels before buying a solar system.

 

[Jack6591]

FBI questions former utility regulator, APS, Corporation Commission

FBI interviews former Arizona utility regulator over election issues

They seem to trying to "follow the money." If they don't get shut down by a Trump win this could get interesting.

Tesla, SolarCity and SpaceX are pulling "regulatory capture" into the light of public scrutiny. The widespread corruption that exists within these industries will wither under the spotlight.................probably not.

 

[renim]

PPA = utility with price of power known in advance for 20 years. So however bad a PPA is, it is still ahead of the utility, right?

No, a PPA is not ahead of the utility, it may be ahead of the utility.
Or alternatively, why go PPA when a owned system is 30% more solar PV for the same price.

then there is the whole home resale issue.
leased items are not assets, they belong to the lessor
owned items are assets, they are part of house

so when buying or selling a house, unencumbered PV panels add to the value of the house and easily go into the mortage.

but buying or selling a house with leased panels, is difficult, they generally cannot go into the mortage, and are another deduction that the financier must take into consideration.

so perhaps owned panels add to the house what a percentage of what a new replacement cost would be. But leased panels subtract from the house what the outstanding purchase price is.
Solar can raise home values — if you own the system