SolarCity (SCTY)

[doggusfluffy]

That can't work where central air conditioning is a requirement.

I'll admit I don't require AC in Seattle so I didn't account for that. Aren't batteries still the more efficient solution as the new GF1 50% stationary output projections would indicate? Maybe they could still figure out a creative way to get enough juice and stay Chile?

Chile Has So Much Solar Energy It’s Giving It Away for Free

The government is working to address this issue, with plans to build a 3,000-kilometer (1,865-mile) transmission line to link the the two grids by 2017. It’s also developing a 753-kilometer line to address congestion on the northern parts of the central grid, the region where power surpluses are driving prices to zero.

 

[jhm]

Fannie Mae’s financing for solar: a game changer for solar industry

This is the next logical step for GSEs like FammieMae. It's about time. The opportunity here is to finance 1 to 2 million residential solar installations per year. This can greatly accelerate rooftop solar in the US.

 

[hockeythug]

snip...

Minnesota utility regulators’ decision to cap the size of community solar gardens has been upheld by a state appellate court, which shot down a challenge by solar developer Sunrise Energy Ventures.

The PUC acted on Xcel Energy’s complaint that it had been flooded with proposals for large solar gardens that were bigger than intended by state law. Sunrise, which is partnering in Minnesota with solar industry heavyweight SolarCity, challenged the PUC’s ruling before the Minnesota Court of Appeals.

Xcel is also developing its own large solar farms, with one slated to pump out 100 megawatts of electricity.

Xcel couldn't handle a little bit of competition.

Size limit upheld for Xcel community solar gardens

 

[doggusfluffy]

Finally in Sight, $1-a-Watt Solar Milestone Shows Long Road Ahead

In other words, beyond a certain point, new solar installations start driving down the price of power not only from solar plants, but also from the always-on fossil-fuel plants that supplement intermittent solar power. That’s a good thing if you’re a customer buying cheap power. It’s not so good if you’re a power plant operator and need a return on your investment.

This half of the quote seems wrong, as end user demand for increasingly cheap solar will actually increase, In my opinion. I guess they are referring to utility solar perhaps?

If big solar power additions make it harder for owners of power plants to recoup their costs, that means that growth in the solar market is to some extent self-limiting. “Now that solar accounts for over 1 percent of U.S. electricity generation, that pace [of growth] will likely slow,” says Ben Ho, a professor of economics at Vassar College.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/04/b...nt/solar-power-energy-efficient-net-zero.html

Their energy bill now? About $10.

And they feel little effect, living in comfort and controlling the temperature in the different zones of their 2,800-square-foot, three-bedroom home from a smartphone.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Plenty of perfectly intelligent economist and scientists are having a very difficult time seeing what the energy dynamic will look like in 5-10 years. The idea that solar will get to 1%, come to scale nationwide and then for some vague reason SLOW is economically laughable.

About to FINALLY shake hands on my rooftop array in Philadelphia(if the installer will stop pushing the roof inspection back). Could not be more excited and am eagerly awaiting an attack on my right to power myself and have a flexible grid in the background providing services at a reasonable price.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

LEAP-watch update..... far out of money 2018's are getting down to a buy-able level. $80-90's are going for $.30-.35

Almost time to load up before the 2Q earnings report. A few more weeks perhaps.

I'm setting my sights on $80's at $.15 and hoping for a dip prior to August.

 

[tander]

LEAP-watch update..... far out of money 2018's are getting down to a buy-able level. $80-90's are going for $.30-.35

Almost time to load up before the 2Q earnings report. A few more weeks perhaps.

I'm setting my sights on $80's at $.15 and hoping for a dip prior to August.

What are you thinking for Q2 earnings? My sense was they've been lowering expectations over the last few months, to the point of major doom and gloom. And the game plan of focused growth rather than uncontrolled growth should work fine, but I don't really know how long it will take for that to become evident and make the doom and gloom seem overdone.

 

[Tenable]

I was given a call today by an old friend that knows I actively invest in renewables. I think we are about to hear of SCTYs new strategy (very new to me at least) for penetrating new markets without the massive penetration and acquisition costs. SCTY has partnered with an MLM. www.powur.com.

 

[Lessmog]

I was given a call today by an old friend that knows I actively invest in renewables. I think we are about to hear of SCTYs new strategy (very new to me at least) for penetrating new markets without the massive penetration and acquisition costs. SCTY has partnered with an MLM. www.powur.com.

Yes, someone posted that link maybe a month ago and I looked it up. Seems like a classic MLM scheme (or is that spelled scam?) so I pulled my ears in again. Doubtless it will make some people some money and a few a lot of it, but to me the whole idea is fundamentally unsound and builds on losses for masses. So, no thanks. YMMV.

Plus, it serves up a Big Bear argument on a silver platter.

 

[Tenable]

Yes, someone posted that link maybe a month ago and I looked it up. Seems like a classic MLM scheme (or is that spelled scam?) so I pulled my ears in again. Doubtless it will make some people some money and a few a lot of it, but to me the whole idea is fundamentally unsound and builds on losses for masses. So, no thanks. YMMV.

Plus, it serves up a Big Bear argument on a silver platter.

While I have never had any interest in MLMs. I think they are perceived as scammy because the majority of people who join don't succeed. While I'm certain there are bad MLM operators as with any industry, I don't think thats a fair argument to discredit MLMs as a whole. Businesses in general fail the majority of the time because people are not very competent financially.

Given that the bears in SCTY and TSLA turn everything into a negative it wouldn't surprise me. But as a practical matter, how would this be a negative for us? We get a free workforce that that feeds us leads. Should some of those leads convert we pay them a nominal fee and very likely a marginal residual which (hopefully) our already thin margins can handle. Just seems like a low cost way to penetrate new markets.

 

[Johan]

While I have never had any interest in MLMs. I think they are perceived as scammy because the majority of people who join don't succeed. While I'm certain there are bad MLM operators as with any industry, I don't think thats a fair argument to discredit MLMs as a whole. Businesses in general fail the majority of the time because people are not very competent financially.

You're right that if you identify a MLM operation early on that is going to be successful and get in early in the scheme you will experience success. But it's based on an immoral business idea: taking money from the suckers who got in last.

 

[Lessmog]

While I have never had any interest in MLMs. I think they are perceived as scammy because the majority of people who join don't succeed. While I'm certain there are bad MLM operators as with any industry, I don't think thats a fair argument to discredit MLMs as a whole. Businesses in general fail the majority of the time because people are not very competent financially.

Given that the bears in SCTY and TSLA turn everything into a negative it wouldn't surprise me. But as a practical matter, how would this be a negative for us? We get a free workforce that that feeds us leads. Should some of those leads convert we pay them a nominal fee and very likely a marginal residual which (hopefully) our already thin margins can handle. Just seems like a low cost way to penetrate new markets.

Admittedly, I was suspicious from the start and not very interested, but I think the plan went something like this:
To participate, you pay the guy who gave you the link say $100 for material etc. When/if you score a sale (the buyer says you recommended the product) you get a cut from the company, the guy who recruited you gets a cut and his boss too, so on. So the more people under you, the more you make. That's the multilevel idea of geometric growth.

As long as business rolls along and sales get made, fine. A low-cost sales force, spreading like wildfire.

But then there's the part where you pay to get in. OK, everyone needs a ticket to ride, and I guess we need incentives too. I'm just a little paranoid when prospects of unbounded wealth are waved around.

And how many sob stories will it take to soil a company's good image? In my youth the big craze was Holiday Magic, a series of cleaning products sold via MLM -- where the real product was the marketing itself. People would buy heaps of the stuff hoping to sell it on to the next hopeful for much more, rising in rank and being able to treat themselves to that Magic Holiday. Only, maybe someone had already sold five years' worth on everybody you pitched it to? Well, then you were out the cash and the next level took the holiday.

Sorry about the long rant. Johan's shorter one is more effective. Plus, he got in before me so I lose.

 

[rypalmer]

If Solar City goes the MLM route, I'll be first in line to sell my shares. I find MLM repulsive and predatory.

 

[Tenable]

You're right that if you identify a MLM operation early on that is going to be successful and get in early in the scheme you will experience success. But it's based on an immoral business idea: taking money from the suckers who got in last.

I certainly see how it can be perceived this way. In MLMs selling snake oil where the primary product is monetizing recruitment I would agree. However, with a quality product such as Solar I believe its a business you could be successful in by just selling the product should you be so inclined. Anyway, I just thought this was interesting, I don't mean to derail the SCTY thread with a long debate on MLMs. For the sake of our holdings, I hope the MLM does well and compensates its members accordingly.

 

[Johan]

If Solar City goes the MLM route, I'll be first in line to sell my shares. I find MLM repulsive and predatory.

Why are you being so subtle? Say what you really feel!

 

[Sm4llz]

Fannie Mae’s financing for solar: a game changer for solar industry

This is the next logical step for GSEs like FammieMae. It's about time. The opportunity here is to finance 1 to 2 million residential solar installations per year. This can greatly accelerate rooftop solar in the US.

I've been looking to refinance and also add solar. This seems like a good match. Would I just ask my lender if they know about this program?

 

[dakh]

Yes, someone posted that link maybe a month ago and I looked it up. Seems like a classic MLM scheme (or is that spelled scam?) so I pulled my ears in again. Doubtless it will make some people some money and a few a lot of it, but to me the whole idea is fundamentally unsound and builds on losses for masses. So, no thanks. YMMV.

Plus, it serves up a Big Bear argument on a silver platter.

MLM is a valid marketing strategy where a lot of education is required to sell the product. For example selling water filters that are common in Japan to US customers required MLM to educate people on the benefits of having one. Of course this usually deteriorates into extremely pushy repulsive strategies and obscene markups due to greed. Essentially MLM can be a way to educate and sell a product or a way to exploit greed and sell a product.

 

[Jack6591]

An MLM organization direct selling a product with demonstrated environmental and financial value, and the brand association of Elon Musk is a tremendous opportunity,

How many Model 3s have been reserved without a dime of advertising? If I were a salesman, I jump at the opportunity to pitch an Elon Musk backed product,

 

[Johan]

I just realized that whenever the Tesla referral program is in effect then Tesla are basically using MLM to some extent. And that doesn't feel wrong to me.

So it's all about the product I suppose. We've just come to conflate MLM methods with sub par products. But MLM selling solar or EVs isn't about the sucker who got in last, but that in all situations with huge growth potential the ones who get in early are going to profit, more so if the growth can be accelerated, even if that means sharing profits with others in the layers below you.

 

[Yonki]

I just realized that whenever the Tesla referral program is in effect then Tesla are basically using MLM to some extent. And that doesn't feel wrong to me.

It doesn't feel like MLM to me, since when it ends there's no one (or thousands) who put money in and can't make any money left holding the (empty) bag. I'd consider the Tesla referral program "peer-to-peer" marketing.