My guess is no. I found this written by the Congressional Research Service...
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11996
I believe that the RWD LFP battery pack is built in China from cells made in China. Not clear where the minerals come from but the LFP battery only has one critical mineral... lithium. So my guess is the Critical Mineral criteria is not met. And since the battery pack is assembled in China it probably won't count under the 2nd criteria. Then in 2024 if ANY of the battery components were built is a country of concern (yes China) then it can't qualify. So Tesla would have to shift half of the battery assemble to the US, but they only have 1 year to shift it all. And if the cells were made in China, depending on how you calculate these numbers, it just doesn't seem possible. Maybe they would redesign the RWD to have a US made NCA cells and Nevada or Auston built batteries, but then you lose the benefits of the LFP.
But don't make any decisions on what I said. Until there is official guidance we won't know and that guidance won't be out until it is too late for most of us.
"The maximum potential credit is the sum of two amounts: the critical mineral amount and the battery component amount.
Critical Minerals ($3,750):
Starting in 2023 (and after the Treasury issues guidance on this requirement), to qualify for this portion of the credit,
at least 40% of the value of the battery’s applicable critical minerals must have been extracted or processed in the United States or in a country with which the United States has a free trade agreement, or recycled in North America. The 40% amount increases to 50% in 2024, 60% in 2025, 70% in 2026, and 80% in 2027 and thereafter.
Battery Components ($3,750): Starting in 2023 (and after the Treasury issues guidance on this requirement), to qualify for this portion of the credit,
at least 50% of the value of the battery’s components must have been manufactured or assembled in North America. The 50% amount increases to 60% in 2024 and 2025, 70% in 2026, 80% in 2027, 90% in 2028, and 100% in 2029 and thereafter.
Additional restrictions apply to vehicle batteries starting in 2024 and 2025. Specifically,
starting in 2024, an EV cannot qualify for the clean vehicle tax credit if any of the vehicle’s battery components were manufactured or assembled by a foreign entity of concern. Starting in 2025, an EV cannot qualify for the clean vehicle credit if the vehicle’s battery contains critical minerals that were extracted, processed, or recycled by a foreign entity of concern."
