johnc11050
Member
Did anyone notice whether they have given new production figures for the X in yesterday's briefing. I read about the3 but nothing new on the X. thanks.
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Starting to deliver Production P90D
- Thread starter Darryl
- Start date
My DS said to me in person (I drop by the store now and then :smilesome very nice version of "calling to bug me doesn't help."
He's right & I'm a big fan of reality
One of the delivery managers told me that there were people who come to the stores every day to ask about it, sneaking about to see if some X's have arrived, and they pretty much need to post guards to keep them from trying to sneak into back areas of the delivery center. I can only imagine the phone traffic that must take place.
I made it a point to keep it down to an e-mail every few weeks or so - it picked up as we approached the St. Louis Auto Show (we missed the date).
Some tips: When in doubt, remember that DS's "don't know". They can see the basic steps in the process -- entering production, entering QA, put on transport. They only get more details about the vehicles when they're put onto a manifest for shipping -- then they have more information. They have to escalate to someone to get more information on the vehicle if it's beyond this basic information.
jsollender
Member
700-800 X produced per week, on average in Q2. Meaning average of 3000 Model X produced per month, or 9000 Model X produced in Q2.
What is Q1 production? Did not answer, but from prior posts I think I recall a rate of 250/week or 1000/month. Someone correct me if I am wrong on this. I do not believe I saw yesterday or in past any guidance of Q1 production of Model X, but if going from 1000/month Q1 to 3000/month Q2, one does not go up 200% overnight, but on a ramp. So best estimation of 1000/month in January, 1666/month in February, 2333/month in March and then 3000/month in April and beyond. How does that ramp sound to y'all?
If accurate, and ignoring the 206 delivered in December, total X's would be 1000 at end of January, 2666 at end of February, 5000 at end of March, 8000 at end of April, 11000 at end of May and 14000 at end of June, 17000 at end of July, etc.
my original RN was 16XXX for a non-sig, non-p 90D. Delivery estimates on confirmation was "mid-2016", which spans from April 1 to September 30. Assuming a 12% order cancellation rate (from modelxtracker.com), my RN 16XXX comes down to upper 14 thousand in line. With the presumed application of ramp up based on supplied info from conference call, it still seems likely that I will see my beast delivered in the summer months. Anyone want to correct my math/logic?
I do know that TM makes many forward looking statements that it fails to deliver. I look at the half full glass, but have a full water pitcher nearby for insurance...
What is Q1 production? Did not answer, but from prior posts I think I recall a rate of 250/week or 1000/month. Someone correct me if I am wrong on this. I do not believe I saw yesterday or in past any guidance of Q1 production of Model X, but if going from 1000/month Q1 to 3000/month Q2, one does not go up 200% overnight, but on a ramp. So best estimation of 1000/month in January, 1666/month in February, 2333/month in March and then 3000/month in April and beyond. How does that ramp sound to y'all?
If accurate, and ignoring the 206 delivered in December, total X's would be 1000 at end of January, 2666 at end of February, 5000 at end of March, 8000 at end of April, 11000 at end of May and 14000 at end of June, 17000 at end of July, etc.
my original RN was 16XXX for a non-sig, non-p 90D. Delivery estimates on confirmation was "mid-2016", which spans from April 1 to September 30. Assuming a 12% order cancellation rate (from modelxtracker.com), my RN 16XXX comes down to upper 14 thousand in line. With the presumed application of ramp up based on supplied info from conference call, it still seems likely that I will see my beast delivered in the summer months. Anyone want to correct my math/logic?
I do know that TM makes many forward looking statements that it fails to deliver. I look at the half full glass, but have a full water pitcher nearby for insurance...
Relax... sit back.... The old saying is "a watched pot never boils". I am 9000 or so reservations ahead of you and have the same delivery picture.
jsollender
Member
I'm chill in Denver. If you are RN 7000, then you are in the April bucket, as my math shows 5000 vehicles by end of March. The math would tend to confirm why we are in the same pot of mid-2016, a April and September are both mid-2016! Hopefully if you see yours in April, I will be both happy for you and for me, meaning there are less cars to build before mine is built!
Cheers to all-
Cheers to all-
jsollender
Member
where did you get 450/week produced in February and 650/week in March? Are we both speculating the Q1 ramp or is there data out there? agree that our ramps to our deliveries are about equal. Here's to hope and (pocket) change!
All good points. It's also worth noting that some are more organized than others and many have over 100 S and X orders they're working on at any given time (I believe). So even if they say they will call you at a certain point in the process, they've got a TON going on and are working with lots and lots of buyers. Never hurts to follow-up if you want. Unless you're insanely rude, I don't think the DSs mind.
Yes, you are probably right, hopefully! Seems like I'm more than 1 month behind our buddy VIN 21x whose car went into production 1/16 and is getting delivery 2/15. Im VIN 3XX and haven't even been told my car is being produced. So either I have a crappy DS or from the 200-300 rage its over a one month difference in wait time. Assuming we are talking about apples to apples vehicle builds (which I think we are - mine is P90D fully loaded no luda., 7 seats, black rims)
Number we had yesterday match the previous numbers we had from December. My graph is still potentially good
View attachment 110997
those figures look a little optimistic but I hope they are close...(digs in for a very long wait)
That's correct - no sound upgrade.
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Basically, my DS said the same thing to me. They get swamped with calls. He has been very good about sharing info when he had it, so I didn't bug him unnecessarily and I think he appreciated it. Hopefully, my delivery goes well Monday. It appears that the recent arrivals are coming in with fewer issues. Mine was just "tweaks and adjustments" - no parts needed. So....fingers crossed.
I think they want to do better, it's just not really easy for them at the moment I guess. The ETA approximation in the MyTesla was definitively a major improvement, way better than having DS aware of all possible ETA for their customers. I hope they get this functionality back soon, maybe with a warning that it's always possible to have extra delays (life is hard !).
Please Tesla, bring back this functionality ?
Please Tesla, bring back this functionality ?
I think the issue with that info is/was it can literally take 1 week to produce one X and 3 weeks or more to produce another, depending on what issues arise during production. My understanding is a) it takes longer to produce an X than an S and b) they still don't have a good feel for how long it takes to produce an X, and they won't have a feel for it until they get to the 700-800/week number Elon mentioned in the call. So the estimate is meaningless and probably caused more issues/confusion with customers.
bobbykansara
Member
I have it on pretty good authority that "it only takes a few days to make the car". I also know that it took exactly four days for my X from start of production to finish (entering QC phase). Not sure where my car is now, and I haven't asked. Take that info FWIW. It's not the manufacturing time that is the hold up. It's like software development; it's the debugging that takes the huge majority of the time.
Sorry for the amateur question, but are you VIN #1071? And already in QC phase?? Have you been given a rough delivery estimate?
It's actually still on the page, but they make it invisible in the browser. i posted in the FB Tesla Model X Owners group how to view it. Essentially you view source (depending on the web browser) and then amongst all the HTML, search for Estimated Delivery.
Also need to factor in the P90's being moved up over the 90's if you want to get to a better estimate of your delivery date. You could assume 30% of net orders (post cancellation) are P90.
You could get your X as soon as June if all goes according to your estimate
An interesting tidbit - looking at the page source, here is what Tesla is calling "early", "mid", and "late" as far as months go:
Code:
Early: [0, 1, 2, 3],
Mid: [4, 5, 6, 7],
Late: [8, 9, 10, 11, 12]Not sure why they have 13 months (month 0), but that leaves it open to interpretation. If month 0 is January, then mid-2016 is May, June, July, August. That makes more sense than having 5 months bundled into the "late" category, and only three months bundled into the "early" category. Interesting regardless.
Amazing, great info. Just checked and mine said Jan - early Feb. Well that ship has sailed but nice to know know/see it.
Nice ! I don't see it. Do I need to have a VIN first ? I'm confirmed only since 48h
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