Starting to deliver Production P90D

[LeonardD]

I am thinking now, that there is no reason for Tesla not to start producing 90Ds in April. Q1 will be done and the ramp will be such that not focusing on P90D will not impact margin negatively, and from a fairness perspective, they should begin producing 90D and P90D concurrently in the order of confirmed order date while taking into account reservation sequence.

 

[dwebb66]

I am thinking now, that there is no reason for Tesla not to start producing 90Ds in April. Q1 will be done and the ramp will be such that not focusing on P90D will not impact margin negatively, and from a fairness perspective, they should begin producing 90D and P90D concurrently in the order of confirmed order date while taking into account reservation sequence.

using that logic, shouldn't the 70D's be starting in April also?

 

[ohmman]

I am thinking now, that there is no reason for Tesla not to start producing 90Ds in April. Q1 will be done and the ramp will be such that not focusing on P90D will not impact margin negatively, and from a fairness perspective, they should begin producing 90D and P90D concurrently in the order of confirmed order date while taking into account reservation sequence.

I like the idea, but after running a thorough analysis of the TMC forums* I was able to classify users' guesses to delivery dates for any Tesla product to date. Here are the results.

*No real analysis performed. Chart for entertainment purposes only. YMMV. Ask your doctor before taking this seriously.

 

[aesculus]

Even if it is a P90D (I highly doubt that there are any 90Ds with a VIN at this point), I'm still a bit disappointed that a P90D confirmed in late February 2016 would get a VIN. I was hoping that mid-January (when they stopped inviting more people to configure) was a bit of a cut-off so they could work through the backlog. That means somebody configuring a P90D in May or June would still be able to get their car ahead of people who ordered a 90D in January, which will push the production of 90Ds even further back.

//Rant ON
This reminds me of driving on I5, especially Southbound for some reason. For those that don't know I5 is the main Interstate in Calif that runs between the North and the South. Its mostly two lanes each way and heavy populated during weekends and holidays. Its also heavily used by trucks. The speed limit is 70 mph for cars (most seem to do at least 75 or 80 mph) and trucks are forced to drive at 55 mph. So right there you have an issue unless the road is empty.

What happens is that truck are supposed to stay in the right lane until they need to pass. When they pass they are probably only going 2-3 mph faster than the vehicle they are passing so it can take 3 minutes or more per vehicle, depending on how many trucks they need to pass. You can see 5 or more trucks clustered at one time so it can take quite a while for a truck to pass all of the vehicles in one group.

So how does this relate to the comment above? What happens is cars in the fast or passing (left) lane stack up behind the passing truck. Sometimes 10 or 20 cars. There are cars who see this jam and move over to the right to pass this group. Then right when they get to the truck(s) in the right lane that are being passed they jam left into the queue that was following the lead truck. This causes everyone to get pushed back in line. This happens over and over again. You actually can find yourself further behind the line the more time passes, even though you were being safe and patient waiting in the left lane for the queue to move on in an orderly fashion.

This whole sequencing for the P90D's just reminds me of that.:cursing:

//Rant OFF

 

[robertmoss]

I have the same issues as your mother in-law (but only as far as getting in and out of the S).
Enjoy the car. I still stare wistfully every time I drive past the Tesla store in Highland Park.

 

[ssiegler]

Random data point and possible glimmer of hope: I was told by my DS over the weekend that I should have a purchase order this week. Next Monday at the latest. Make of it what you will.
VIN: Prod 18X | P90D (everything but L and towing, no Onyx wheels)

 

[Blastphemy]

I am thinking now, that there is no reason for Tesla not to start producing 90Ds in April. Q1 will be done and the ramp will be such that not focusing on P90D will not impact margin negatively

There's a big reason for Tesla to not start producing 90Ds in April - it can't even figure out how to produce P90Ds reliably and in quick order! You should refer to ohmman's excellent chart above; while many on this forum may be overly optimistic, it doesn't change the reality that Tesla is struggling to get Model Xs out the door due to numerous production issues, weeks spent in "final inspections," and even more weeks spend at the service centers prior to delivery. Our own Model X was originally promised the first week of February, and the latest report from my DS is that the car might arrive by April 4th.

You actually can find yourself further behind the line the more time passes, even though you were being safe and patient waiting in the left lane for the queue to move on in an orderly fashion.
This whole sequencing for the P90Ds just reminds me of that.:cursing:

Even those of us who benefited from this "pay more get sooner" order hierarchy at Telsa aren't actually seeing any benefit as our early builds are now just sitting in quality control while people who configured months after us are getting their cars sooner. There are even Signature reservation holders who configured as far back as October who have cars supposedly built but just sitting around waiting for some unknown repair for months.

 

[highedu]

Tesla is not prepared to build 90Ds yet. I think this is less about putting high margin orders first and more about simplifying production until they are able to mass produce a reliable product. By only building P90D with premium upgrades, they are able to focus on getting this specific configuration perfected to the point where they can deliver them directly off the line to customers without having to go through extensive rework. Adding additional motor and interior trim configurations at this point would only slow the ramp and make it harder to pinpoint issues. The time for 90D will come, but we aren't there yet.

I don't understand this. Aside from the battery size, caliper color, and motorized wing, what options and configurations are being added with 90D production?

Not much.

Driver is revenue and margin

 

[timf]

I don't understand this. Aside from the battery size, caliper color, and motorized wing, what options and configurations are being added with 90D production?

Not much.

Driver is revenue and margin

The entire rear motor assembly is different on the 90D. It may be similar to the one used on Model S but there are likely packaging differences. They will surely want to run it on internal test vehicles and no one outside the company would know where they stand with that. For the non-premium package, there are numerous small differences throughout including seat coverings and lighting assemblies. All in all, it's far more complicated than just cosmetic details.

The differences between the 70D and 90D should be much smaller (essentially just the battery pack) so that will be more of an issue of revenue and margin dictating when to add the smaller pack to the mix.

 

[NoVIN4Me]

The whole production sequence really suck and Tesla needs to do better at both communication and policy, because the current one is clearly confusing/not fair. Forget about 70 or 90D, Tesla can't even produce P90Ds that have no premium package! I have a P90D without Premium, reserved since early 2014 and guess what, people with P90D + premium who ordered late 2015 are skipping the line.

/Rant on
Imagine if you go to a restaurant and wait in line. There are certain expectations that for the most part, the tables will be available based on the sequence of waiting line. Occasionally, depending on your table preference, your wait maybe faster (i.e., people who are willing to sit at the bar maybe faster than party of 10 at a large table), which is analogous to the battery size delivery schedule...e.g., P90D>90D>70D, that's fair enough when you communicate this up front during the order process.

Now imagine if the restaurant start changing this expectation, and on top of table size/preference, people with seafood orders will be served faster than non-seafood, even if they just arrived at the restaurant. All of this without communicating to people who have waited for a long time.... Not very cool.

/Rant off

 

[LeonardD]

The difference between the 70D and the 90D is greater than you think. First off, the 70D does not include the Smart Air Suspension. Second, many people who order the 70D will order as close to the base model as possible, so they will not get the upgrades package. Thirdly, if you look at the range, output and top speed of the 70D it is very likely that both motors are smaller than on the 90D.

My car comes in at over 110k before the destination fee or the taxes. The things I did not order are the ultra HD Audio, the towing, and the Performance option. I got everything else, and the only real difference would be the inverter for the rear motor, and the rear motor assembly itself. As far as trim goes, it has exactly what many of the P90Ds have. Therefore, I think as far as Q1 is concerned it has more to do with money than manufacturing efficiencies. For Q2 margin differences should be less important, because they will be producing a lot of 90Ds by then anyway. The only question is when will they start.

 

[Whocares]

Picked up our wall charger at SC and spotted 7 Model X on lot, according to receptionist, more due tomorrow. Our vin is production mid 900's. Our DS wasn't in but emailed this afternoon to say we are on target for late March early April delivery. Very accommodating staff who were more than happy to give FWD and air suspension demo. Fantastic experience, can't wait to go back to pick up my Pearly White Jewel!

 

[timf]

The difference between the 70D and the 90D is greater than you think. First off, the 70D does not include the Smart Air Suspension. Second, many people who order the 70D will order as close to the base model as possible, so they will not get the upgrades package. Thirdly, if you look at the range, output and top speed of the 70D it is very likely that both motors are smaller than on the 90D.

My car comes in at over 110k before the destination fee or the taxes. The things I did not order are the ultra HD Audio, the towing, and the Performance option. I got everything else, and the only real difference would be the inverter for the rear motor, and the rear motor assembly itself. As far as trim goes, it has exactly what many of the P90Ds have. Therefore, I think as far as Q1 is concerned it has more to do with money than manufacturing efficiencies. For Q2 margin differences should be less important, because they will be producing a lot of 90Ds by then anyway. The only question is when will they start.

I completely forgot about the suspension. That will certainly factor into the delay in 70D production. The motors are definitely the same though, as Tesla only makes two types of motors - the smaller dual motor design, and the original large motor used in RWD and Performance rear. Their maximum output is limited as a result of the smaller battery.

 

[highedu]

The entire rear motor assembly is different on the 90D. It may be similar to the one used on Model S but there are likely packaging differences. They will surely want to run it on internal test vehicles and no one outside the company would know where they stand with that. For the non-premium package, there are numerous small differences throughout including seat coverings and lighting assemblies. All in all, it's far more complicated than just cosmetic details.

The differences between the 70D and 90D should be much smaller (essentially just the battery pack) so that will be more of an issue of revenue and margin dictating when to add the smaller pack to the mix.

why would there be differences in seat coverings and light assemblies between 90D and P90D if they will prioritize premium package/leather 90D vehicles over non

 

[timf]

why would there be differences in seat coverings and light assemblies between 90D and P90D if they will prioritize premium package/leather 90D vehicles over non

I was pointing out how they are limiting the configurations they are building in order to get production right. Those differences will not impact 90D production as I expect they will build the non-premium P90D before they start building 90D. Once non-premium is in production, there is no reason it should cause premium 90Ds to be prioritized over non-premium since all the parts will already be available.

Essentially, I would look at production sequence as follows. (This is just a guess, some critical items may be out of order or not shown)

P90D w/ 6+ Seats & Premium Upgrades
+ no Premium Upgrades
+ 90D
+ 5 seats
+ 70D w/ Smart Air Suspension
+ standard suspension

As each level is reached, everything above it will continue to be buildable. Orders will only be delayed if they contain features on a lower level not yet added to the build mix.

 

[Darryl]

I was pointing out how they are limiting the configurations they are building in order to get production right. Those differences will not impact 90D production as I expect they will build the non-premium P90D before they start building 90D. Once non-premium is in production, there is no reason it should cause premium 90Ds to be prioritized over non-premium since all the parts will already be available.

Essentially, I would look at production sequence as follows. (This is just a guess, some critical items may be out of order or not shown)

P90D w/ 6+ Seats & Premium Upgrades
+ no Premium Upgrades
+ 90D
+ 5 seats
+ 70D w/ Smart Air Suspension
+ standard suspension

As each level is reached, everything above it will continue to be buildable. Orders will only be delayed if they contain features on a lower level not yet added to the build mix.

The information above is a little off:

There is a hold on any car with the 5 seat option as they are have to address ventilation.
There is a hold on any car with Black Onyx wheels as there a sourcing issue. Last word was not to expect delivery until September. Even though they have assigned a few VINs for these cars no cars have moved into production as of yet.

1. P90D & P90DL with premium and autopilot option
2. P90D & P90DL without premium and autopilot option
3. 90D with premium and autopilot option
4. 90D without premium and autopilot option
5. 70D with premium and autopilot option
6. 70D without premium and autopilot option

You can order a P90D or P90DL with premium and autopilot option today and within a few weeks have a VIN and move to the top of the list. Life isn't fair.

 

[K-MTG]

I just checked the design studio, my 70D changed to a loaded 90D (my initial order before I changed it) but the total price is still the same as the 70D. I'm fine with this error

- - - Updated - - -

And my only document left under "All Documents" is release notes 7.1

 

[dwebb66]

There is a hold on any car with Black Onyx wheels as there a sourcing issue. Last word was not to expect delivery until September. Even though they have assigned a few VINs for these cars no cars have moved into production as of yet.

What is your source on the September date? Today a number of people have received VINs for configurations with the Black Onyx Wheels.

I do not think that they would be assigning VINs six months in advance of the cars going into production. It looks like they have enough of these wheels to produce a batch of X's with Black Onyx Wheels.

 

[Zesty]

I confirmed my order on 12/8/2015 and picked up my X90DL on 2/18.

Took some photos with the sun setting, so the blue doesn't really pop. The white interior does though.

 

[ohmman]

Great photos and a beautiful car. Thanks for sharing.