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Still worth getting a Model 3 if Electricity costs more than Gas?

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Here in San Diego, residential, single family home. It looks like the cost of electricity will cost more than my gas car which currently gets 34mpg average citi / highway.

TOU plan for EV vehciles: https://www.sdge.com/sites/default/files/regulatory/1-1-18 Schedule EV-TOU & EV-TOU-2 Total Rates Tables.pdf

Here is the tiered plan I have now (We have solar so typically we stay in tier 1 but osmetimes lapse into tier 2 when running the AC in the summer (we get triple digits).
https://www.sdge.com/sites/default/files/regulatory/1-1-18 Schedule DR Total Rates Table.pdf
We have a small 1400sqft house, but we do not have natural gas, so electric water heater etc.

Best calculator I found is this one which does not have the 3, so I used the S instead... Hopefully you guys have a better calculator that will account for the model 3.
Electric Car Calculator

if I switch to SDG&E TOU plan for electric vehicles owners in the summer the average cost of electricity will be $.38 per kWh. Comes out to
$2,273.91 for the model S with my commute and $2,117.65 for my current ford focus that gets 34 mpg with gas at $3.20 a gallon.

I almost think a hybrid might be a better idea in terms of costs but I don't really want a hybrid I don't think I want either full gas / diesel or all electric. I really wanted a plugin so I can use the carpool lane at work. But you can get the sticker if you get a volt, but then I have a battery and gas engine maintenance... I guess now I know why I see so many Pri-i's (plural for pruis?)...

Power costs, drop closer to $.23.5 in the winter so maybe I should average that in? cost would be $.29 then bring the numbers to $1,712.81 for the model 3 which means it would still be slightly cheaper than gas.

Also what are the real tesla maintenance costs? I heard they are quite high for an electric vehicle. The bolt is essentially no maintenance until 100k miles then a coolant flush. Telsa model 3 is like $500 per year?

Not trying to pinch pennies here, but part of the idea of paying more for an electric vehicle is that your supposed to save on fueling it to compensate for your higher monthly payment which does not sound like that will be the case for most owners in San Diego, unless they are not charging at a single family home.
Either you're trolling or you're renting. Otherwise you would just get solar panels. You better be renting.
 
At equal cost for gas or electricity there are still big benefits for electric:

No trips to the gas station, fully charged each morning at home.
No waiting in gas lines if a pipeline breaks or something else interrupts the supply.
Instant acceleration, no waiting for a downshift, turbo lag, engine response.
No gas smell.
No engine noise. You can floor it and no one will know.

Tesla does recommend a pricey service schedule. I think only a couple of the first four recommended services have anything unique to Tesla, although they also have ICE parallels. The rest is mostly check the brakes, suspension, and tires, change cabin air filters, and similar stuff that any car requires. For example, brake fluid is supposed to be changed every two years. That should apply to a Bolt or an ICE as well. But you don't have to do it. The brakes will just get a little spongy and may lose performance if used heavily. Up to you.
 
He's not on a TOU plan now. He's considering switching to a TOU plan if he gets an EV and balking at the costs. I suspect if he remained on a tiered plan and drove the hypothetical EV the same amount, he'd be even more hosed in costs.

I'm saying that when looking at TOU plans, looking purely at the cheapest night time rates for charging an EV is foolish and making proclamations like "yay! My charging is only ___ cents. My cost is only ___/mile" is just as foolish. In the process, you've probably hosed yourself in all the other hours and likely increased your average cost of electricity.
That's how I see it too. It's just hard to calculate. SDGE's website when you log does tell you how much you would save, but it does not break down any amount of data at all so you have no idea what the numbers are based on. And as a company I don't trust SDG&E at all. Some years ago they (their parent company Sempra) built the sunrise power lines right through the brush for 100's of miles (real fire hazard in a county that already has sever fire issues. it transported power from mexico to LA through our county. Eventually they did build some large wind power grid stuff, but it almost seemed like it was just built to cover up the fact they were importing dirty power from mexico. I need a real calculator not just a dollar figure in green or red based on some strange women lyin' in ponds distributin swords!

Correct me if I am wrong,
does the TOU plan have net metering and/or rate arbitrage built-in for PV+EV owners who generate during the day and charge at night ?

If so, then the first detail to sort out is the retail value of a generated and delivered kWh in the different time zones. Then it just becomes a question of how much PV to buy ;-)

The calculator OP linked to does not include home PV so it it is probably way, way off.
With SDG&E you don't produce much power during peak hours, which are 4:00 -9:00. They set it up that way because it allows them to charge the highest possible rates and pay you the least amount possible from your solar return while you are not home or in my case where only the wife is home.

Depending on your driving habits, most Volts require little maintenance. IIRC, you change the oil every 2 years? Put some gas in it 4 times a year? The battery doesn't require maintenance. Volts are very low maintenance, and wildly quicker than the Priuses, any year or style.
Our work delivery vehicle is a 2017 Volt. 58.4 mile roundtrip today, 12.3 kWh. Not a drop of gas again, like the last 100+ deliveries. Never needs remote charging, seldom needs gas. Last stop for gas was about Halloween.

Maintenance: https://my.chevrolet.com/content/dam/gmownercenter/gmna/dynamic/manuals/2017/Chevrolet/Volt/Maintenance Schedule.pdf
I would be using the gas engine on the volt for the commute home from work every day.

I agree with some other posters that there's probably a way to get your electricity cheaper than gas, but I'll defer to suggestions from CA folks who know more about the details.

To answer the question in the spirit it was asked, though - I think it will be worth it even if electricity does end up costing somewhat more than gas.....
Good stuff and I agree the car would still be a blast. I'm probably not going to be able to get the larger battery, premium package, and EA though. I'll probably skip EA for now.

It is very interesting to note that peak rates in SDG&E land run from 4pm to 9pm.
Anybody putting up PV now is well advised to choose a SW or even SWW orientation if possible.

Aside from 'NBC' charges, it appears that a 5 cent/kWh arbitrage exists for daytime generation and super-off peak consumption.
Non peak generation and consumption is about a wash
None peak generation covers about half peak grid consumption

So...
If possible, size the PV array equal to the non peak consumption + 2 * net peak consumption
Yep peak is 4:00 - 9:00 and of course that can change if they find a way to make mor emoney with different times.
Good advise for people getting solar now. We have had ours for a while and SDG&E has changed the game with new rates and regulations. We have 8kw (3kw and 5kw inverters) of inverters but only 6 kw of panels. It might be possible to add another 1KW of panels if we put them out in the yard or something though. We get partial shading no matter where they go. There's more room on the roof but they will get shaded by neighbors giant eucalyptus trees. Also I still owe allot on my solar loan (we bought them with a home loan). So at least the monthly solar bill has interest deductible on it I guess. Probably don't want another loan to add more panels though, house has other things it needs much more than more panels!

That's why I did my own install.
But you also get a Free Bonus!!!
That's great for you, nice work! I'm however not a licensed electrician, so I cannot do my own install as I do not have the licenses required. I think there is some room for doing your own install, but mine was a bit extensive. We also had the 1960's electric panel upgraded (didn't even have a master breaker), new line run to to the house, panel grounds put in, everything was grounded to water pipes before.

With an EV on the way, the best advice then is put up some more

:)

He may be limited to an extra 1 kW by the utility if he wants to stay grandfathered into his current NEM arrangement, but that will cover some ~ 6500 miles a year. Any remaining miles are at most covered by a SuperCharger at ~ 5 cents a mile
This might be worth inquiring about. Or maybe a power wall? Next big purchase will probably be a new very long driveway.
 
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Man I feel badly for California people. I pay 0.13 Kw/h here and I think that is way too high so I'm getting solar put in which will work out to 0.06 Kw/h over 25 years. That will make my Model S get essentially 150 mpg/e!

edit: fixed kw vs Kw

It's San Diego. Here in Orange County I pay $0.15 at night where I charge my Model S. Not the lowest but OK.
 
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Feels like a California thing (aka blood from a turnip). January 1st appears that SCE increased my late night EV juice by 30% overnight. I need to verify this as I just noticed, but even in California we don't usually see gas prices go up 30% overnight! I really wonder if California won't be happy until they have driven every last tax paying citizen out!
 
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I'm however not a licensed electrician, so I cannot do my own install as I do not have the licenses required.
Unless Escondido has some weird rules about doing your own install, there are no licenses required to do your own electrical work - you just need to know what you're doing.

Here's some questions for you:

What rate plan are you using right now? DR? DR-SES?

With an EV and solar, it's typically a no-brainer to go with the DR-SES or EV-TOU-2 plan (they have the same rates now). In the "winter" months, Nov - May, you can charge basically any time you want as the cost of electricity is < 10% different between super-off-peak and on-peak ~$0.23 / $0.25 / kWh. In the "summer" months, Jun - Oct, you need to avoid on-peak electricity (4pm-9pm) at all costs - $0.54 / kWh. Escondido is pretty warm in the summer, so I suspect you will run the AC a good deal - but you can minimize AC usage past 4pm with some pre-cooling before that time. Then just make sure you charge the car during super-off-peak periods.

The SDG&E website has tools to estimate your annual bill - log in to their website, go to "My Energy" and then "Select a New Pricing Plan". Once there, it will calculate your bill based on your last 12 months of energy usage. I suspect the DR-SES plan will come out cheapest. It will remain the cheapest once you get your Tesla as long as you can avoid charging between 4-9 PM during the summer months.

A Powerwall would go a long ways towards avoiding on-peak energy usage. With solar still producing a bit of power after 4PM, a single Powerwall should allow one to avoid drawing from the grid any significant amount during on-peak saving you $0.25 / kWh. Unfortunately, you can only get that kind of rate arbitrage 5 months of the year, so it's still not enough to be able to get a Powerwall to make economic sense. But if you value having backup power, you could talk yourself into it.
 
Unless Escondido has some weird rules about doing your own install, there are no licenses required to do your own electrical work - you just need to know what you're doing.

Best way is to install it yourself and then have an electrician make all the connections.

IE: You mount everything, run all the wires, and he makes all the connections. Electrician is there for 2-3 hours max.


Be sure to run the correct size wiring.
 
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I would be using the gas engine on the volt for the commute home from work every day.
Yeah, I gave up on 'driving my life away' in the 1980's, now I'm 2 miles from home to work. But if you have to, might as well have AutoPilot. Might add years to your life. Just relax in traffic. While the Volt doesn't have autosteering, it does have pretty solid ACC and AEB so I turn that on when going to customer sites. But the Model 3 would be the better choice. Note: Most EVs and EREVs get significantly better range in heavy traffic. I won't buy a Prius. A Volt is slow, but as my daughter put it after driving her friend's Prius (daughter has her own Volt), "OMG! That thing is a SLUG." My #1 complaint with the Volt is the lack of power, but I'm very jaded.
That's great for you, nice work! I'm however not a licensed electrician, so I cannot do my own install as I do not have the licenses required.
Not only am not a licensed electrician and hate doing construction, years ago I spent $175k at the UCI Burn Center when a 208vac 3ph device failed I was working on, gave me a jolt and burns so bad, that my wife helped me update my last will and testament right before surgery.

So I have a healthy respect for electricity. Our solar is 1000 vdc nominal (797v at MPP, 988v no load). Kill you like a lightning strike. Plugs into a 480vac 600amp service, which can do pretty much the same thing.

And to make it even more entertaining, I have severe acrophobia. The kind that cripples your hands when it kicks in. My assistants could use ladders, I had to use a power lift.

That being said, I had to have PEs sign off my project for submittal, and have a licensed electrician as part of the subcontractors to do the grid connect before the city would accept my plans. But this is commercial, not residential, different restrictions, several times the paperwork. You even need plans for your bathrooms and parking lot to get a solar permit.

Legally, if you wanted to fight city hall, you could skip the licensed electrician fee for the interconnect. But you are best off just grabbing your ankles and gritting your teeth when the city tries to tell you need something that is not required. Like I had to have 3 inside AC disconnects in 48" according to them, because they do not understand how to read a spec sheet. Solar Edge inverters have a AC disconnect integrated as a separate module with lockable switch right under the inverter itself. They would not believe it, so 2' away is another AC disconnect, then 2 feet away is 480v panel marked on the inside and outside as being a solar shutoff. So there are 7 ways to Rapid Shutdown my solar in a 6' foot radius (4 inside within 4', and 3 outside within 4'), and all are marked. All are 'required' by my AHJ. Comedy.
 
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Here in thrifty Chandler AZ, my rough calculations are an electric “fill” at home of my S costs me about a buck for every 50 miles of range. My gas sipping 46-47 mpg hybrid Civic costs about double that amount for gasoline. If those numbers were reversed, I wouldn’t be happy but I would still prefer the electric car.

I realize within 5-10 years many more electric cars will appear and that should drive down gas prices and drive up electric rates. Does that worry me and my pocketbook? Not a bit. Cleaner air will be worth it.

In a month we should have our 3 and I hope to never again visit a gas station, other than when we need a rental car.

PS Our typical off-peak rates when we charge are between 7.5 and 8.5 cents, which would be about a third of what was quoted here for San Diego. But our gasoline is also cheaper. We usually pay about $1.80-$1.90 a gallon after Fry’s grocery store discounts.
 
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But then you pay for the panels. Which is a decent amount


But is still better

Actually, I believe that IS the cost of the panels.
If he calculated like I did, and I believe I got the idea from him in another forum, this is how that number is arrived at.

  1. Take total cost of panels.
  2. Subtract any rebates.
  3. Subtract any production incentives if they exist.
  4. Subtract any benefit from net metering, if any.
  5. Add expected repair/replacement of inverters.
Take the result and divide it by the expected kWh production over 35 years (estimate lifetime of panels). To account for the degradation I multiplied the annual production by 30, which is a close estimate to 35 years of production with degradation.

This gives you the kWh cost. Our cost for all the electricity we will use for the next 35 years is about 1.4 cents/kWh, house and cars.

The big negative is the upfront cost. The benefits are the low cost that does not increase over the next 35 years.
 
Actually, I believe that IS the cost of the panels.
If he calculated like I did, and I believe I got the idea from him in another forum, this is how that number is arrived at.
Exactly so

The big negative is the upfront cost. The benefits are the low cost that does not increase over the next 35 years.
Although not exact, for my purposes I presume
loan costs = opportunity cost = utility price increases

So I don't see any big difference between using my own money or somebody else
 
Once you get your PTO, expansion gets cheap here if you are will to ignore fine print.

For all the materials for 20kw of panels, mounts, ballast , inverter, optimizers, wire, switches, breaker, stickers, etc, it was about $25,000.
But by the time I was finished, redundant PE stamps, taxes (permit fees), mandatory electrician for interconnect, etc, (counting only stuff that was either unnecessary by law or just plain wrong by the AHJ) bumped that to $40,000. Rentals and unskilled labor added $5,000.
However the next 4.2 kW worth of expansion will be just under $5,570 including shipping and taxes since I was permitted and PTO at 20kW AC I can add panels without exceeding the interconnect engineering specs. These panels are 350w so they cost a touch more per watt.
 
Not only am I not a licensed electrician and hate doing construction, years ago I spent $175k at the UCI Burn Center when a 208vac 3ph device failed I was working on, gave me a jolt and burns so bad, that my wife helped me update my last will and testament right before surgery.
We're you supposed to be licensed to work on this equipment? What kind of equipment was it?