Stray Model X Production rationale posts

[Yggdrasill]

So this website is wrong:
10 Biggest Electric Car Battery Manufacturers Are... | CleanTechnica

They say Mitsubishi and AESC are bigger than LG Chem.

Edit: Amusingly the data above comes from the dude at post #26 who wants me banned for being a meanie about Tesla.

AESC = Nissan. Nissan is going to get their cells from LG Chem going forward. LG Chem was cheaper and better than their own batteries.

And LG Chem has large existing factories that will ramp up at a moments notice. (Just look at production numbers for 2014.) Mitsubishi isn't in the same league.

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That will be the small costs they are unwilling to disclose in their financial figures?

Questions Musk Needs to Answer about the Tesla Superchargers | Market Mad House

Why should Tesla disclose every little detail? I don't need to know how much Tesla uses on toothpicks or whatever.

The total cost for the electricity for lifetime access to the supercharger network should on average be somewhere in the area of $500, or ~$50/year. With 100k Teslas sold, that works out to around 1.25 million USD per quarter. Peanuts.

 

[johnnyduval]

With 100k Teslas sold

Bonnie will get Model X #2 sometime in 2016 so will be at least 100,002

 

[PeterK]

Amusingly the data above comes from the dude at post #26 who wants me banned for being a meanie about Tesla.

Not for being a meanie about Tesla, but for in general acting like a troll (some choice words come to mind but I'll take the high road) whose goal is not to have a productive discussion about Tesla but instead to provoke any and all who dare to respond to you.

You ignore all salient points and facts that contradict your arguments, then twist words or seize on something random or out of context to offend someone else. Like the sudden introduction of the Leaf topic - no one had compared Tesla to Leaf but you decided to pick a fight on it. And you support your points such as they are with questionable articles.

Clearly productive discussion with you is impossible. Enough feeding the troll.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

That will be the small costs they are unwilling to disclose in their financial figures?

Questions Musk Needs to Answer about the Tesla Superchargers | Market Mad House

This thread really needs to be moved to the Investment section.

 

[johnnyduval]

some choice words come to mind

You sir are the one that accused me of talking "BS". I might live in Germany but am quite aware that in fact means "********" to everyone that speaks English in the known Universe. So don't take the moral high ground on polite language.

Like the sudden introduction of the Leaf topic - no one had compared Tesla to Leaf

Huh? The dude in the post ABOVE mine was the first to mention the Leaf!!! It wasn't me. I just asked for clarification that he was referring to the Nissan Leaf that is the #1 selling electric car in the world.....which just happens to be......um.....a fact.

And if you keep calling me a "Troll" I will have to start using the "Tesla Fanboy" word.

And you support your points such as they are with questionable articles.

Sorry. I assume you are referring to my link to your website? Should I edit my post?

 

[PeterK]

You sir are the one that accused me of talking "BS". I might live in Germany but am quite aware that in fact means "********" to everyone that speaks English in the known Universe. So don't take the moral high ground on polite language.



Huh? The dude in the post ABOVE mine was the first to mention the Leaf!!! It wasn't me. I just asked for clarification that he was referring to the Nissan Leaf that is the #1 selling electric car in the world.....which just happens to be......um.....a fact.

And if you keep calling me a "Troll" I will have to start using the "Tesla Fanboy" word.



Sorry. I assume you are referring to my link to your website? Should I edit my post?

Just a final clarification - I am not zachshahan and never accused you of BS nor do I have a website.

 

[johnnyduval]

OK well that is just confusing. You leapt to the defence of the guy I mentioned at post #26.......but actually you have nothing at all to do with him?

My apologies but it did make things very confusing!!!

p.s. But you do keep calling me a "troll" and you did get it wrong about the Nissan Leaf.

to provoke any and all who dare to respond to you.

Actually I think there have been some thought provoking and interesting responses here today. The debating style may not be to your more formal style of prose, but this is a "stray posts" thread according to the mods......there seem to be plenty more threads on this forum more akin to your own literary tastes.

 

[bwa]

They need to go from making 33,000 cars last year to being an actual manufacturer making 500,000 a year by 2020. Meanwhile we know that Volvo, BMW, Audi, Porsche, Aston, and especially Mercedes are all working hard on pure electric cars. God help us if Apple are really gonna enter the market.

I have no axe to grind. I have some Tesla shares and a Tesla X on order. I just thing it's about 50-50 whether things will work out as planned. Based on track record I assume the Model 3 will cost $60,000 and not $35,000 and won't be on the market before 2020.

I just now see too many things that *could* upset the masterplan. Punters will not "stay loyal" to Tesla as a brand if something sexier appears at a 20% discount from Audi/Mercedes etc.

I wasn't loyal to begin with. If I get my first EV from someplace else, I'd be happy. I want an EV that is safe, decent, looks decent, acts decent, drives well, and doesn't insult my sensibilities. Right now Tesla is the ONLY one doing that. (Leaf isn't safe, and its range is not enough. Otherwise I'd have one already.)

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And LG Chem has large existing factories that will ramp up at a moments notice.

That's why I think property, fixture, equipment, inventory, etc., taxes in USA are created by foreign interests controlling our government, because it reduces our manufacturing capabilities in this country. I think it's awesome when factories are underutilized. I think I'm the only one. I've always hated the movement towards pop-up exact-size temporary factories as a way to deplete US manufacturing assets. Let the marketplace clean up cruft, and tell the government to go to hell.

 

[goneskiian]

Nothing to add here. Just enjoying the back and forth.

 

[mikeash]

Why do you assume the Model 3 will cost $60,000 based on Tesla's track record? Both the Model S and X came in at the promised price. I can totally see thinking the 3 will be *late*, because everything has been late. But blowing out the promised price by that much? I just see no basis for saying that.

 

[CarlK]

Why do you assume the Model 3 will cost $60,000 based on Tesla's track record? Both the Model S and X came in at the promised price. I can totally see thinking the 3 will be *late*, because everything has been late. But blowing out the promised price by that much? I just see no basis for saying that.

No it won't be $60K. Many people seem to forget you could actually buy a large luxury sedan from Tesla at $60K even 3 years ago when 40kWh model was still offered. Tesla should be able to do much better than that in five years time frame with gigafactory and all that.

I believe the stripped down bare minimum base model will be $35K. Elon has made that promise many times I'm sure he will keep that promise just like he kept the pricing promise of the MX. Can't say how stripped down that would be but you should be able to buy a Model 3 at $35K if youw want to. A reasonably equiped one would probably be costing $40~50K and that will probably be what most people buy. The performance model can certainly cost much higher just like what S and X is.

 

[S'toon]

That will be the small costs they are unwilling to disclose in their financial figures?

Questions Musk Needs to Answer about the Tesla Superchargers | Market Mad House

First of all, they're a private corporation. They don't have to reveal everything. Secondly, Seeking Alpha doesn't have a good reputation around. Third:

Tesla: cost of providing Supercharging “immaterial”

<snip>

Many in the mainstream media don’t understand that a public charging station is not comparable to a gas station. EV owners plug in overnight, and start every day with a full charge, so Superchargers are only needed for long-distance travel (at least, that’s how it’s supposed to work – Tesla has been coming down on drivers who use Superchargers for daily charging).

The Fool found some insights about Supercharging costs in Tesla’s most recent 10-Q filing. The company says that it plans to expand the Supercharger network by about 50% over the next year, which will cost about 5% of its planned $1.5 billion in total capital spending. Small beer compared to the massive sums it’s investing in Model X and the Gigafactory.

What about the cost of maintaining the network? According to Tesla’s 10-Q filing, “these costs were immaterial for all periods presented.”

Full article at:
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/tesla-cost-of-providing-supercharging-immaterial/

Also:
http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...providing-free-charging-cost-tesla-motor.aspx

 

[mikeash]

No it won't be $60K. Many people seem to forget you could actually buy a large luxury sedan from Tesla at $60K even 3 years ago when 40kWh model was still offered. Tesla should be able to do much better than that in five years time frame with gigafactory and all that.

Yep, I've had that conversation before. "Whine whine whine, Tesla promised us a $60k Model S!" Yeah, and they had it, it was the 40. It disappeared because almost nobody bought it, but they delivered on their promise.

More fun is "Whine whine whine, Tesla promised us a $50k Model S!" Which is true, but that number was counting Federal and California tax credits, so they hit that too.

Model X was promised at $5k above the Model S for the same options, and they've hit that too.

If the S and X are any guide, the 3 will actually start at $35k, the minimum 3 most people would want to buy will probably start at more like $40-45k, and a maxed-out one will be around $70-80k.

 

[johnnyduval]

First of all, they're a private corporation.

Tesla Motors is a public company that trades on the NASDAQ stock exchange under the symbol TSLA.

I need to adjust my writing style as everyone on this forum seems to take every word literally?

No, I don't think the Model X is vaporware....just teasing.

No, I am not gonna teach my kids to crawl through the boot to avoid using the gullwing doors.

No, I am aware they are actually called Falcon doors really.

No, I don't think the 3 Series will really cost $60,000 in its cheapest form.....but I do think you will end up paying nearer $50,000 to get something without
grants, tax rebates and with a decent battery etc.

I am just trying to show my frustration as I think there is a little too much "bait and switch" going on. For example the Model X. Sure there is a hypothetical $80,000 Model X you can buy - but actually you can't, because stocks for 2016 are sold out and when they say "late 2016" everybody on this forum knows you ain't gonna see one of those $80,000 babies anytime before 2017.

Model X was promised at $5k above the Model S for the same options, and they've hit that too.

Now I am NOT an expert on following this stuff, but pretty sure someone here mentioned that Tesla promised 7 seats as standard but it is now a $4,000 option. By going back on that and offering a 5 seat option they can hit the "like-for-like-but-only-5k-more" promise compared to an S.

 

[MrBoylan]

Now I am NOT an expert on following this stuff, but pretty sure someone here mentioned that Tesla promised 7 seats as standard but it is now a $4,000 option. By going back on that and offering a 5 seat option they can hit the "like-for-like-but-only-5k-more" promise compared to an S.

There have been many unofficial communications about the seating on the X over time. First it was standard, then it was going to be optional. Then when the Sigs got access to the design studio, 7 seats was the only option and it was listed as "standard" which many of us assumed meant that it would be a standard feature on production as well. The 6-seat option was added a few days later (for Sigs). But it wasn't until the first production reservation holders got access to the design studio a couple of weeks ago that we saw that the 6-seat and 7-seat options would cost more. Musk hinted at this in the Q3 results call. "5K over a comparably equipped Model S, same number of seats..." It sucks for those of us who were hoping that they would be included in the base price, but it wasn't a complete surprise.

The only real surprise (for me at least) was that the 90D would have air suspension included (instead of an optional feature), so the base price was higher than expected from that respect. But if you were planning on getting the air suspension anyway, then it wasn't a big shock (no pun intended).

-CB

 

[johnnyduval]

From an old post

Model X Update email from Tesla

dleidy | 16. Juni 2014

Received this in my email at 7:30am this morning:
Dear Model X reservation holders,

blah blah blah

You’ll also be able to fold down the second and third rows to create a flat platform for storage.

Ooops. But they did indicate at that time the extra seats were an "option" so I don't have an issue with that.

Fortunately due to my obviously abrasive nature 5 seats is approx 4 seats more than I will ever need.

 

[mikeash]

I need to adjust my writing style as everyone on this forum seems to take every word literally?
...
No, I don't think the 3 Series will really cost $60,000 in its cheapest form.....but I do think you will end up paying nearer $50,000 to get something without
grants, tax rebates and with a decent battery etc.

Initially you said, "Based on track record I assume the Model 3 will cost $60,000 and not $35,000...." How the F are we supposed to take that besides literally?

Now I am NOT an expert on following this stuff, but pretty sure someone here mentioned that Tesla promised 7 seats as standard but it is now a $4,000 option. By going back on that and offering a 5 seat option they can hit the "like-for-like-but-only-5k-more" promise compared to an S.

Why is this wrong? The Model S has 5 seats. Like for like would naturally match that. I assumed the like-for-like would include third-row seats in the S and pano roof, so the $80,000 base price is actually better than expected. There is some wiggle room as to exactly which S options would be included when comparing prices to an X, and they've hit the lowest point on that.

 

[CarlK]

The optional seats in X are way better than those in the S. $3000-4000 is a pretty reasonable price to pay. One can always choose the 5 seat configuration which would be more or less the same as in the S and pay no extra. The $5000 difference covers falcon wing door, pano-windshield, both S do not have, and the bigger body. No one can accuse pricing of the X is not appropriate. All Tesla didn't do is to give you something for nothing which as a business it should not need to do anyway.

 

[johnnyduval]

Initially you said, "Based on track record I assume the Model 3 will cost $60,000 and not $35,000...." How the F are we supposed to take that besides literally?

Because it is a sarcastically higher figure. Maybe I should have said $6,000,000 and then it would have been more obvious? Clearly its not gonna be $60,000.

 

[S'toon]

Tesla Motors is a public company that trades on the NASDAQ stock exchange under the symbol TSLA.

I need to adjust my writing style as everyone on this forum seems to take every word literally?

No, I don't think the Model X is vaporware....just teasing.

No, I am not gonna teach my kids to crawl through the boot to avoid using the gullwing doors.

No, I am aware they are actually called Falcon doors really.

No, I don't think the 3 Series will really cost $60,000 in its cheapest form.....but I do think you will end up paying nearer $50,000 to get something without
grants, tax rebates and with a decent battery etc.

I am just trying to show my frustration as I think there is a little too much "bait and switch" going on. For example the Model X. Sure there is a hypothetical $80,000 Model X you can buy - but actually you can't, because stocks for 2016 are sold out and when they say "late 2016" everybody on this forum knows you ain't gonna see one of those $80,000 babies anytime before 2017.



Now I am NOT an expert on following this stuff, but pretty sure someone here mentioned that Tesla promised 7 seats as standard but it is now a $4,000 option. By going back on that and offering a 5 seat option they can hit the "like-for-like-but-only-5k-more" promise compared to an S.

Nope. Tesla always talked about 7 seats being an option, not standard. I can post stories going back years that said that. Some people saw that the maxed out Founders and Signature editions came with 7 seats and assumed they were standard.