Everyone views life from their own perspective. I have been waiting for announced superchargers to begin construction in three locations--Hesperia, Kramer Junction, and Downtown Bakersfield (Near 99 & 58). All three of these locations were announced to be opening in 2017. Then in January they changed it to 2018, It is now late September 2018 and no sign of anything happening. I am subscribed to the you tube channel, NOW YOU KNOW, and they give an update of all new SCs that open worldwide. It is interesting that the number of New SC opening has slowed to a trickle (1-2 per week compared to 5-10 six months ago). And this is when the Tesla Supercharger map shows tons of proposed/announced sites. So it appears that there has been a sequestering of capital outlay in building out the SC network. This would seem to dovetail with the effort to show profitable Q3 and Q4 that is a BHAG (big, hairy, audacious, goal) for Elon. Any of you out there notice this as well? Going east/west in So Cal while avoiding the LA megalopolis is difficult. Those of us north of the LA basin have few E/W options.
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Supercharger Buildout Slowing Down?
- Thread starter Big John
- Start date
It wouldn't surprise me if Tesla has chosen to temporarily back off on Supercharger network expansion. I agree that Tesla seems to be doing everything possible to become profitable. While having to slow its growth in some areas is unfortunate, I tend to think that Tesla will benefit overall from this exercise of fiscal discipline.
For the trips we take up and down US 395, we are also looking forward to having Superchargers in Hesperia and Kramer Junction, plus Bishop. Facilitating east/west travel through the western Mojave Desert will also benefit many. That being said, there are enough Superchargers today for us to drive just about anywhere in the region. Having more Supercharger locations just means more flexibility and convenience.
For the trips we take up and down US 395, we are also looking forward to having Superchargers in Hesperia and Kramer Junction, plus Bishop. Facilitating east/west travel through the western Mojave Desert will also benefit many. That being said, there are enough Superchargers today for us to drive just about anywhere in the region. Having more Supercharger locations just means more flexibility and convenience.
Not sure about California supercharger build out, but I've seen the thread in Texas about the Ft Stockton supercharger - it's finally under construction and in only 15 days since construction was reported to have started, they already have the pedestals set- It's gone very quickly- hopefully it will come on line just a quickly and then we'll finally have the cross country almost all weather supercharged path --- Fingers crossed
cpa
Active Member
Big John, your lament is nothing new. A lot of us have been wringing our hands the past four years over the planned Supercharging locations and the actual openings of them. Tesla seems to operate in sporadic bursts of activity (like earlier this year), and then new construction slows to a crawl. I think that part of the budget went towards the 40-stall sites at Kettleman City and Baker and to expand existing locations like Tejon Ranch and Manteca instead of opening up about 12-15 new sites with 10-12 stalls each.
Fortunately for most of us, Hesperia, Kramer's Jct., and Bakersfield 99/58 are more convenient than essential, since Barstow, Mojave, Inyokern, and the proximity of Buttonwillow/Bakersfield I-5 serve our needs.
I have no knowledge of the timing of Kramer's Junction. But since CalTrans has started to reroute SR58 due east of Boron north of its current alignment and the traffic signal at the junction with US395, Tesla may very well wait until the construction is complete and have the SC located right off the grade separation and off ramps if there will be businesses at the exit, instead of the current mess at the traffic lights.
http://www.dot.ca.gov/dist8/Project-SR-58-Kramer-Junction-Expressway.html
Fortunately for most of us, Hesperia, Kramer's Jct., and Bakersfield 99/58 are more convenient than essential, since Barstow, Mojave, Inyokern, and the proximity of Buttonwillow/Bakersfield I-5 serve our needs.
I have no knowledge of the timing of Kramer's Junction. But since CalTrans has started to reroute SR58 due east of Boron north of its current alignment and the traffic signal at the junction with US395, Tesla may very well wait until the construction is complete and have the SC located right off the grade separation and off ramps if there will be businesses at the exit, instead of the current mess at the traffic lights.
http://www.dot.ca.gov/dist8/Project-SR-58-Kramer-Junction-Expressway.html
I ran into a Tesla technician back in early July certifying a Tesla Supercharger site and he mention there would be a slowdown in activity in Q3 but things would pick up again in Q4.
He did not state a reason but presume this has to do with managing expenses to show profitability in Q3. It didn’t quite make sense to me because won’t they have the same issue in Q4 if they are to show a profit in that’s quarter too?
This was in NJ, btw.
He did not state a reason but presume this has to do with managing expenses to show profitability in Q3. It didn’t quite make sense to me because won’t they have the same issue in Q4 if they are to show a profit in that’s quarter too?
This was in NJ, btw.
I doubt it's deliberate. So many steps involved in putting a Supercharger in. Plans have been in place for a long time and then it's out of Tesla's control when they are finished. It's all contractors and utilities and cities. I highly doubt Tesla is putting a hold on Supercharger construction to save a few $. Compared to the entire operation, the cost for Superchagers are really small.
But yes, in California, they are behind the demand. almost half of all US Teslas are sold in California. It seems Tesla has also decided to deliver Model 3 car to Californians first. So there is an avalanche of Teslas here in California. 4 years ago I watched one of busiest freeways here to see how many Teslas are on the roads. It was 3 in 10 minutes. The same experiment last week showed 90 Teslas in 10 min. That's a 30 fold increase. Superchargers increased from 90 to a little over 600 in the same time frame.
But yes, in California, they are behind the demand. almost half of all US Teslas are sold in California. It seems Tesla has also decided to deliver Model 3 car to Californians first. So there is an avalanche of Teslas here in California. 4 years ago I watched one of busiest freeways here to see how many Teslas are on the roads. It was 3 in 10 minutes. The same experiment last week showed 90 Teslas in 10 min. That's a 30 fold increase. Superchargers increased from 90 to a little over 600 in the same time frame.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
While I have no doubt that’s true, also consider they’re extremely concentrated in a few urban areas where people are doing 90+% of their charging at home (as they should be).
Get outside of the CA population centers and I’m one of 168 registered EVs in my entire county, and maybe one of a couple dozen Teslas.
That said, I drive all over the state and it’s been over a year since I’ve had to wait for a supercharger stall *anywhere* that I needed to facilitate my travel (Fresno, Manteca, Tejon Ranch, Mojave, Kettleman City, Atascadero, Buellton, Fish Camp, Groveland, Casa de Fruta, Corning, Mt. Shasta, etc etc) . The long distance routes are currently well covered and appropriately sized. Yes, there is congestion in the urban cores, perhaps from opportunistic “free” charging, but the primary purpose of the supercharger network in California is healthy and functioning well.
I have to agree with this. I've been a Tesla driver for 3 years. While most of my driving is local within the city with the most famously overcrowded supercharger, I charge at home so this isn't a problem for me.
I've also taken road trips to LA, Palm Springs, San Luis Obispo, Silicon Valley, Monterey, Reno, Phoenix, Albuquerque and Las Vegas. LA is my only "en route" area with significant supercharger congestion, but I still spend much more time navigating its famously awful traffic than waiting to charge. Everywhere else along my routes -- even on the I-5 corridor between LA and SF -- it's not at all unusual for me to be the only user of a supercharger site.
The problem with Tesla road trips is not in getting there; the intercity supercharger network takes care of that. The problem is that you don't always get to pick where you'll stay. After a few days you really start to miss that level 2 charger back at your house.
I've been telling people that an EV you can charge at home is a big convenience, but an EV that you can't charge at home can be a real pain in the ass...
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I agree trips are well served--especially I-5 & west. Areas relatively sparse are 99 Bako to South of Sacramento and 395, north of Mammoth . It is especially tough to go from the eastern Sierras to Central Oregon (Bend)--really nice drive but lack of SC push you to the Central Valley. Not as stunning. East/west travel is challenging--(Bako to Santa Maria).
In my opinion, Q3 was clearly slower, but it has picked up again in Q4. This lends credence to the "must be profitable in the 3rd quarter!" theory.
There may not have been many openings yet in Q4, but there has been a lot of activity on these forums finding permits and sites under construction. Also, keep in mind that Q3 should be the easiest time of year to open superchargers, while Q4 is one of the more difficult times of year to start construction.
K3Man
Member
I wouldn't draw any conclusions from just one supercharger site. There is probably something else going on there. If it was just about Q3, they could have turned it on at the beginning of October. So frustrating to you, but not really indicative of anything on a global scale.
Adapted from a comment I made in another thread in mid-October:
Based on the the charts and data available from Supercharge.info--worldwide, over the year from 2017-07-01 to 2018-06-30 (i.e. the prior 12 months ending before the start of '18Q3), Tesla averaged opening/installing ~12.5 SC stalls/day and, on the basis of entire Superchargers, 36 locations/month (for US-only it averaged 17.4 locations/month). In each of the 4 quarters of that 12 month they averaged opening/installing over 10.5 stalls/day [11.6, 15.8, 10.7, 13.0]. In Q3 of this year, worldwide Tesla averaged ~7.5 stalls/day and 21 locations/month (US-only averaged 10 locations/month). That means that, on average, Tesla was finishing 15 fewer new Supercharger sites and ~150 fewer stalls each month. Some of the drop in new sites may be related to Tesla transitioning to building larger sites with more stalls/site or building more expansions of existing sites as opposed to only building new ones. But, I didn't look at the data to see if that was actually supported by examining when each expansion really took place. Also note that even with the apparent drop in activity during '18Q3, that quarter did still average more stalls/day than the 2 quarters preceding the prior year I looked at above. '17Q2 came in at 6.8 stalls/day and '17Q1 a piddly 2.8 stalls/day. So, all things are relative.
To me the available data looks like either there was a true, temporary slowdown during Q3 or a big regression toward the mean if the future build rate remains slower and doesn't pick back up. From a "gut feel", I think it has picked back up during Q4 so far, but we'll have to wait until the end of this quarter (and maybe the next one, too) for full results.
Based on the the charts and data available from Supercharge.info--worldwide, over the year from 2017-07-01 to 2018-06-30 (i.e. the prior 12 months ending before the start of '18Q3), Tesla averaged opening/installing ~12.5 SC stalls/day and, on the basis of entire Superchargers, 36 locations/month (for US-only it averaged 17.4 locations/month). In each of the 4 quarters of that 12 month they averaged opening/installing over 10.5 stalls/day [11.6, 15.8, 10.7, 13.0]. In Q3 of this year, worldwide Tesla averaged ~7.5 stalls/day and 21 locations/month (US-only averaged 10 locations/month). That means that, on average, Tesla was finishing 15 fewer new Supercharger sites and ~150 fewer stalls each month. Some of the drop in new sites may be related to Tesla transitioning to building larger sites with more stalls/site or building more expansions of existing sites as opposed to only building new ones. But, I didn't look at the data to see if that was actually supported by examining when each expansion really took place. Also note that even with the apparent drop in activity during '18Q3, that quarter did still average more stalls/day than the 2 quarters preceding the prior year I looked at above. '17Q2 came in at 6.8 stalls/day and '17Q1 a piddly 2.8 stalls/day. So, all things are relative.
To me the available data looks like either there was a true, temporary slowdown during Q3 or a big regression toward the mean if the future build rate remains slower and doesn't pick back up. From a "gut feel", I think it has picked back up during Q4 so far, but we'll have to wait until the end of this quarter (and maybe the next one, too) for full results.
From the Changes tab on Supercharge.info, global data.
| . | Permit | Construction | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017Q3 | 37 | 87 | 120 |
| 2017Q4 | 41 | 94 | 138 |
| 2018Q1 | 30 | 46 | 88 |
| 2018Q2 | 37 | 61 | 99 |
| 2018Q3 | 13 | 18 | 65 |
| 2018Q4 | 30 | 40 | 25 |
USA:
| . | Permit | Construction | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017Q3 | 24 | 52 | 44 |
| 2017Q4 | 28 | 46 | 52 |
| 2018Q1 | 25 | 32 | 38 |
| 2018Q2 | 25 | 39 | 51 |
| 2018Q3 | 6 | 11 | 30 |
| 2018Q4 | 15 | 30 | 12 |
Either people were too busy this summer to report changes, or they cut back on Supercharger activity.
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