Supercharger Price Increase

[diamond.g]

Mine is more like once every other month. (I have a 6 mile commute.)
Dan

I am jelly....

 

[ℬête Noire]

I am jelly....

So many years ago I would walk to work (didn't even bother with transit). Driving my car would have made no sense (parking, ug). Those were the salad days, indeed.

 

[seattlite2004]

Regarding cheap hydro power.....I got an email from Patagonia regarding Hydro Power Dams.

From the link below....it states:

The Dam Truth All Dams Are Dirty
(And so is the hydropower they create)

Hydropower is the only “renewable” energy source sending species to extinction, displacing people globally, and contributing to climate change.
​

Seem like Patagonia is joining in a campaign to:

Save the Blue Heart of Europe
Tell International Banks to Stop Investing in the Destruction of Europe’s Last Wild Rivers
​

So....looks like Hydo aint that "green"...but I guess its greener than the alternatives?

Here is the link if anyone is interested in reading about Patagonia's campaign: Blue Heart of Europe

 

[winfield100]

Once a week? Really? We bought three tanks of gas for our ELR in a year. It's was a near perfect around-town car with a fit and finish that runs circles around our top-o-the-line Model S. Cadillac just got a little too greedy on the pricing, or it would still be a contender. Road trips with gas and electric for daily commute.

and it has custom paint detailing in the wheel wells _AND_ laser etched in the plastic hte word _Cadillac_ definately worth $40,000 more than the Volt.

 

[NerdUno]

and it has custom paint detailing in the wheel wells _AND_ laser etched in the plastic hte word _Cadillac_ definately worth $40,000 more than the Volt.

You've obviously never set foot in an ELR.

 

[winfield100]

You've obviously never set foot in an ELR.

\rant on
had a '49 powder blue Caddy, (inherited, from 1957 to 1963) with the button to pop up the rear tail light to get to the gas tank. babyied it. lotsa carbon in the cylinders, very, very bad. (leaded gas days), never went over 40-45. guy who bought it wound it up to a zillion rpm and threw a piston, rods, etc thru the hood 1/2 mile down the road, totally trashed it.
It was enuf Caddy for me for the rest of my life. Caddie's were just Chevy's with an extra $1,000 bling, and a price tag of an extra few $10,000's to $30,000's for the hood ornament and the whatever's like panache or sumthin
the ELR is a "gussied up Volt, still both range and charge rate crippled"
\rant off

 

[israndy]

I really thought the ELR was going to be something, And with my Dad and my Granddad both having gotten Caddies as their final car I was sure I would do the same. Hopefully, they come out with a car that actually is intriguing in the next 40 years

-Randy

 

[dhanson865]

Regarding cheap hydro power.....I got an email from Patagonia regarding Hydro Power Dams.

For the average US electricity user it's a small percentage anyway

Actual numbers from 2017 annual production were
Nat gas (32%) 1,272,864,000 MWh
Coal (30%) 1,207,901,000 MWh
Nuclear (20%) 804,950,000 MWh
Hydro (7.5%) 300,045,000 MWh
Wind (6%) 254,254,000 MWh
All Solar (2%) 77,097,000 MWh

with Solar gaining ground on everything

2014 to 2017 increase or decline in order of most produced to least produced

• nat gas +13%
• coal -24%
• nuclear +1%
• hydro +15%
• wind +40%
• All solar +167%

Only a matter of time until Solar moves ahead of Wind and Hydro. Add a few more years and it'll pass Nuclear and Coal.

linear growth puts the 2026 numbers at

Nat gas 48% (from 32%)
All Solar 39% (from 2%)
Nuclear 22% (from 20%)
Wind 18% (from 6%)
Coal 14% (from 30%)
Hydro 12% (from 7.5%)

but those are not realistic forecast numbers, just a simple extrapolation of a 3 year trend extended out another 9 years.

Still it puts Hydro on the bottom of the list just below Coal. And those will likely be the bottom 2 at some point between now and 2030.

Of course my regional power provider isn't with that plan, National Average is 8% for wind+solar and they only have a token Wind/Solar portion of 3% now. No public plans to take advantage of dropping prices of production, planning to barely let any more solar/wind in on a 9 year plan:

So eventually I'll have to put solar on my own roof because the local power company isn't going to do it for me.

TVA’s Generating Assets Today

• 7 fossil plants (29 active units)
• 3 nuclear plants (7 units)
• 29 hydro plants (109 units)
• 1 pumped storage hydroelectric plant (4 units)
• 9 natural gas combustion turbine gas plants (85 units)
• 7 natural gas combined cycle gas plants (15 units)
• 1 diesel generator site (5 units)
• 15 solar energy sites
• 1 wind energy site

It is impressive that only 3 nuclear sites can do 40% of the electricity here.

 

[SigNC]

It's not practical for solar to make up 39% of power from a provider unless there are means to store all that power for use at night. Maybe batteries are the solution but more than likely energy storage in the form of pumped water would be more practical.

 

[dhanson865]

It's not practical for solar to make up 39% of power from a provider unless there are means to store all that power for use at night. Maybe batteries are the solution but more than likely energy storage in the form of pumped water would be more practical.

Maybe the linear extrapolation went too far. Stopping one iteration sooner gives us

Nat gas 42% (from 32%)
Nuclear 21% (from 20%)
Coal 18% (from 30%)
All Solar 14% (from 2%)
Wind 13% (from 6%)
Hydro 10% (from 7.5%)

But note "All Solar" isn't just solar PV, it includes thermal solar that generates electricity and those use molten salt as the "battery" storing heat to generate during the night.

You don't have to use pumped storage or electrical storage if it is thermal based.

Still I'd think PV and distributed power generation will take over for the non commercial generation and it'll have to be figured in to the totals in some form or fashion when home solar PV generates enough to show up on reports of this scale.

 

[ℬête Noire]

It's not practical for solar to make up 39% of power from a provider unless there are means to store all that power for use at night. Maybe batteries are the solution but more than likely energy storage in the form of pumped water would be more practical.

Last year Tucson Electric Power was able to get solar with 4 hr storage window at $45/MWh (4.5c/kWh) with delivery starting end of next year. The bids Xcel in CO got in December, for delivery in 2021, blow that out of the water (although length of storage window isn't clear from what I've seen released so far). In Colorado, a glimpse of renewable energy’s insanely cheap future

As well there already a couple years back was a grid in the Great Plains whose hour-by-hour grid supply was peaking at over 50% renewables w/no stability issues.

In the prime climates for it I expect that sort of level of solar composition to start approaching that within years, not decades. Outside the US and already heavily developed industrial countries it'll be happening quite soon.

 

[SigNC]

Will be pretty impressive if it can actually store enough to be able to power the grid at night especially as in theory more and more EVs mean more demand at night vs currently.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Will be pretty impressive if it can actually store enough to be able to power the grid at night especially as in theory more and more EVs mean more demand at night vs currently.

That's what wind is for. When the sun goes down, wind comes on for the night shift. Local climate wind patterns apply but it's a general rule of thumb wind production is better at night. That (along with some wind power incentives) is why TX, with all it's West TX wind, will occasionally see grid spot prices go negative overnight. There has been a lot of wind generation brought online, to the point it's now at 17% of total generation exceeding the 10% share of total generation of nuclear.

On the other hand solar is an good fit for the "duck", consisting of A/C and people working and cooking supper.

 

[SageBrush]

On the other hand solar is an good fit for the "duck", consisting of A/C and people working and cooking supper.

PV is ebbing at this time. It will be filled (geography prevails here) by a mixture of CSP, hydo, NG, wind and battery.

 

[ℬête Noire]

CSP

....is currently double the cost of PV diurnal. It has potential, and can overnight & even 24hr so good chance it has a future is some regions, but it's still working on the goal of breaking through $60/MWh.

PV can be built out relatively small scale locally, avoiding increased transmission line development....and the price is still dropping. It just passed wind as the cheapest raw power on the planet. It's not "ebbing at this time" and unlikely to go away anytime soon.

P.S. NG has about 20 years of runway, still. It gets really fogging nearing and past that. Nuclear isn't out of the picture yet, either, though likely to remain relatively niche unless someone figures out how to replace the turbine hall side of the plant of current in use nuclear designs with something more economical.

 

[SageBrush]

It's not "ebbing at this time"

I meant that the sun is setting at supper time

As for CSP, I personally think it is a fantastic storage choice in certain geographical areas.

I like to think of it somewhat like this:
PV for 8 hours of the day: 3 cents a kWh
Wind for 16 hours of the day at 3 cents a kWh
CSP for any 4 hours each day at 8 cents a kWh

Works out to a weighted cost of ~ 4 cents a kWh (wholesale)

EVs can be the glue that brings it all together through demand charging, soaking up the otherwise unused generation throughout the day.

 

[winfield100]

For the average US electricity user it's a small percentage anyway

Actual numbers from 2017 annual production were
Nat gas (32%) 1,272,864,000 MWh
Coal (30%) 1,207,901,000 MWh
Nuclear (20%) 804,950,000 MWh
Hydro (7.5%) 300,045,000 MWh
Wind (6%) 254,254,000 MWh
All Solar (2%) 77,097,000 MWh

with Solar gaining ground on everything

2014 to 2017 increase or decline in order of most produced to least produced

• nat gas +13%
• coal -24%
• nuclear +1%
• hydro +15%
• wind +40%
• All solar +167%

Only a matter of time until Solar moves ahead of Wind and Hydro. Add a few more years and it'll pass Nuclear and Coal.

linear growth puts the 2026 numbers at

Nat gas 48% (from 32%)
All Solar 39% (from 2%)
Nuclear 22% (from 20%)
Wind 18% (from 6%)
Coal 14% (from 30%)
Hydro 12% (from 7.5%)

but those are not realistic forecast numbers, just a simple extrapolation of a 3 year trend extended out another 9 years.

Still it puts Hydro on the bottom of the list just below Coal. And those will likely be the bottom 2 at some point between now and 2030.

Of course my regional power provider isn't with that plan, National Average is 8% for wind+solar and they only have a token Wind/Solar portion of 3% now. No public plans to take advantage of dropping prices of production, planning to barely let any more solar/wind in on a 9 year plan:

So eventually I'll have to put solar on my own roof because the local power company isn't going to do it for me.



It is impressive that only 3 nuclear sites can do 40% of the electricity here.

another graphic for 2016
the part i find significant, at least for petro, is 79% of energy for transportation is wasted energy

https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/assets/images/charts/Energy/Energy_2016_United-States.png

 

[NerdUno]

I really thought the ELR was going to be something, And with my Dad and my Granddad both having gotten Caddies as their final car I was sure I would do the same. Hopefully, they come out with a car that actually is intriguing in the next 40 years

-Randy

If the Cadillac ELR had been $20K less expensive, had had two more doors and even a slightly bigger battery, it would have been a near perfect vehicle.