Supercharger V3 and Model Y unveil

[VT_EE]

Sorry. I forgot we’re not allowed to talk about reality here if it’s neutral or negative for Tesla.

Of course, if you’d like to provide any sort of reasoned and intelligible counterpoint, we could discuss your point of view.

I'll bite:
- The Model Y reveal has been planned for March since at least early last fall.
- The Supercharger V3 has also been planned for what seems like forever. A reveal this week is actually slightly behind the advertised schedule.
- This talk of possible bankruptcy is crazy. Elon is doing everything humanly possible to not raise money using stock, which would dilute his shares and power. If $hit hits the fan, he has many friends who would throw money at the company. The product is simply too good for it to not sell in volume especially at the new price. They will sell every Model 3 they can pump out (the US isn't the only market).
- The S and X were always overpriced compared to like ICE vehicles. I assume the cost to build them is dropping so Tesla has reduced the price to entice more buyers. Prices are now more in line with the BMW 7 series. No surprise here.
- This company has almost no real competition. No other manufacturer has a comparable product that comes close especially at the lower price points. Yes other companies (Jaguar, Audi, and Mercedes) have fancier interiors and better service departments, but everything under the "hood" is far superior in a Tesla and will be for quite a while. Add in the lack of a real CSS charging network, and there is no other option.
- There are a lot of planned activities that are all coming together at the moment. I don't smell any desperation although I can see how the sudden price cuts might give that impression. It was necessary to reduce prices in my option to capture a far larger market.
On the other hand:
- Tesla service is a disaster compared to most other brands. I personally have had only had good experiences, but there is some serious work to be done based on what I've read on this forum. This could turn many buyers off.
- I'm not sure how this online-only sales thing will work. I do know a few people though who ordered online and ended up with home delivery. They loved it. Delivery at a service center is sketchy at best.
- Elon needs to get out of the day-to-day operation and hand it to someone who knows how to institute some business processes. A company that doesn't cash checks and can't figure out delivery needs a change. The problem is, he can't seem to let go of some of the reins. He should concentrate on the things he's good at, and pass off the things he sucks at. That is what makes a good leader; knowing your strengths and weaknesses and addressing them appropriately.
- Advertising. I know Elon must think it's a waste of money, but there are a lot of people that need to be educated on the value of these vehicles. At some point they will need to advertise.

 

[halfricanguy]

I'm hoping any 100 kWh car since the end of 2016 will have an increased charge rate, maybe to 150 or 180 kW. The Model 3 should definitely be able to charge faster than 120 kW too.

It's possible true v3 Supercharging will be even faster than 180 kW but even if it's only 180 kW, that will still help to get (some) cars charged faster and open the clogged Superchargers up a bit faster.

Plus I’m thinking at the very least, it’ll improve charge rate/speeds of both charging cars that are sharing a single stall, regardless if their battery is compatible.

 

[zmarty]

More Supercharger V3 info from NetBrown in Reddit thread:

"I asked some more details since there was more interest about the details.

• The liquid cables will actually be much thinner than the current SC cables, the coolant pump is located in the base of the SC (v3 can retrofit into existing v2 chargers), and while the cabinets can support 250kW max (so I suppose it would be possible to upgrade to 250kW in the future), the individual chargers will be max 200kW.
• PV and Power Pack integration is a part of the design spec, but no required.
• 40% better throughput performance compared to v2 per site
• Thermal Foldback improvements over v2
• v3 cabinets get 5 power stages at 70kW output per power stage for 350kW AC -> DC per v3 cabinet
• v3 cabinet also houses 2x DC-DC modules per post yielding 100kWx2 for the 200kW deliverer per post
• Any extra power (assuming the extra 50kW the cabinets can produce versus what the chargers are delivering if the cabinet is maxed, or if only partially maxed, any extra power) can be shared across cabinets. Since multiple cabinets will be at each site, this lessens if not removes the v2 "shared" power with linked chargers
• Site master controller is 4G LTE for communication of all diagnostics (as well as the verify car and billing of power consumed) so better knowledge when a site has a problem - leading to more proactive fixing of sites with broken/mafunctioning chargers
• Site master controller is 4G LTE for communication of all diagnostics (as well as the verify car and billing of power consumed) so better knowledge when a site has a problem - leading to more proactive fixing of sites with broken/malfunctioning chargers
• The cost reduction will come from higher power conversion efficiency (96% for v3 versus 92% for v2), less harmonics, and no overvoltage sensitivity (though the cabinets are larger and heavier than v2), ultimately leading to an approximate 20% more customers served per dollar spent on power
• Overall AC input is 438kVA, 526A
  • Can link up to 7 v3 cabinets per bus (or a block), which can also link to one Power Pack
  • Cabinets are on a shared DC radial configured bus of 880-1000
  • This is then pushed out to the chargers (posts) and DC 180-500v, 250kW max"

 

[18_Mdl_P3D]

Another question is V3 going to have a constant charge rate beyond ~50% SoC? Would like to see constant charge rate up to at least 80% SoC If not sharing charger, this will shorten charging time significantly, especially when charging beyond 80% or greater SoC.

 

[VT_EE]

Another question is V3 going to have a constant charge rate beyond ~50% SoC? Would like to see constant charge rate up to at least 80% SoC If not sharing charger, this will shorten charging time significantly, especially when charging beyond 80% or greater SoC.

This is dependent on the battery, not the Supercharger. We'll see if Tesla has a newfound confidence in the M3 battery to allow high charging rates at over 50%.

 

[gaswalla]

Damn someone either has an incredible imagination or someone is squealing like a pig

 

[VT_EE]

Damn someone either has an incredible imagination or someone is squealing like a pig

I was thinking the same thing. It sounds legit though with that kind of detail. Hopefully the employee isn't found and executed.

 

[copyhacker]

You don’t drop the price of your flagship models by tens of thousands of dollars if you have buyers lined up for every one at current prices.

But you might if they were “long in the tooth” and you had a refresh in the pipeline.

 

[tomas]

But you might if they were “long in the tooth” and you had a refresh in the pipeline.

Sounds like me...

 

[Kuhz]

I’m guessing my 75D won’t be seeing anything over 95kw it maxes out at now. I’ll show myself out

 

[ucmndd]

But you might if they were “long in the tooth” and you had a refresh in the pipeline.

You’d voluntarily reduce the price of your flagship product by double-digit percentages overnight, sending your entire owner base into a tizzy, just to position yourself for an eventual refresh that hasn’t been announced? Even if demand for the current product was robust?

Yeah, I don’t think so.

 

[Krash]

Any existing car capable of supercharging since they should be backwards compatible. But Model 3s and 100 kWh S/X will probably see the most improvement in charging speed

I believe the car internal wiring is thicker in the 3. That may be the differentiator between 3 and S/X v3 supercharging speed.

 

[sjg98]

Will be interesting to see what the charging curve looks like.
Logically you'd think you'd only get the new speed up to about 50% SoC before it drops below 120kW again anyway.

However, I have noticed that Urban Superchargers (USC) which are 72kW definitely have a different charge curve than the 120kW Superchargers. It is not simply capped @ 72kW, it seems to ramp up and taper differently as well.
My experience has been that SCs seem to have a higher charge rate at most points of the SoC curve than USC, whereas I would have expected that USCs would be slower until that 67% SoC mark (when SCs hit 70kW or so) and then match.

 

[tomas]

You’d voluntarily reduce the price of your flagship product by double-digit percentages overnight, sending your entire owner base into a tizzy, just to position yourself for an eventual refresh that hasn’t been announced? Even if demand for the current product was robust?

Yeah, I don’t think so.

The entire ownership base is not in a tizzy. I have an S and 2 3s and not in tizzy. I suspect tizzy describes 1/3 on this forum and about 5% of all owners.

 

[ucmndd]

The entire ownership base is not in a tizzy. I have an S and 2 3s and not in tizzy. I suspect tizzy describes 1/3 on this forum and about 5% of all owners.

Color it however you want, there’s no good reason to do it if you’re selling every car you can make at current prices. That’s my point, whether you’re willing to acknowledge it or not.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Demand is tanking. Not just for Tesla, the entire global auto industry - but Tesla can’t ride out a downturn like GM or Toyota can.

S and X are long in the tooth and a refresh will cost tons at current volume. Enter massive price cut to stimulate demand, even at the risk of alienating entire current customer base.

Model 3 demand at higher prices far from infinite. Enter massive price cut, alienating current customers and arguably selling at an unsustainable price point to keep volume high. Time will tell if it was actually a price issue with Model 3, or if demand was softening for other reasons.

Y could be a game changer in crossover-hungry US but is 2 years out best case.

Lots of headwinds, probably requiring drastic change, which is exactly what they’re doing. Not saying I disagree with the tactics, but this is reactive - not proactive.

I know not everyone is fond of the Bloomberg M3 production estimates, but JHC, does this look like anything resembling "tanking demand"? If so, there must be a mountain of unsold Teslas that could be seem from space.

 

[Jays200]

Would have loved a Powerwall 3, 3 phase version to accompany the Supercharger V3 announcement. Would pair perfectly with the Model 3 when it gets to Australia. Might need to upgrade the new Gateway 2 to GW3 just to keep nomenclature consistent

 

[tomas]

Color it however you want, there’s no good reason to do it if you’re selling every car you can make at current prices. That’s my point, whether you’re willing to acknowledge it or not.

And... that’s the problem. The word acknowledge indicates you view your “point” as fact vs opinion. I’ll acknowledge it is your view and respect your right to have it. But when you say it is everyone’s view or that I should acknowledge as fact, then you are headed towards hyperbole or generalization.

My view re S and X: sales down partly due to 3 cannibalization, competition nearing, current version S aging, new version sooner than we think. Drop a little too dramatic, but logic makes sense. Totally understand how recent buyers could be upset.

 

[18_Mdl_P3D]

This is dependent on the battery, not the Supercharger. We'll see if Tesla has a newfound confidence in the M3 battery to allow high charging rates at over 50%.

VT_EE, most Li batteries have a charging profile of max voltage / max current up to 80% SoC. After that it's Max Voltage. This allows the BMS to level off the batteries. The current flow will drop from as high as 3C to .1C. Tesla seems to use a more conservative charging profile that starts reducing the current flow after 50% SoC. My hope is they ramp down this early because of being conservative and not because of physics.

I have seen Li batteries have 3C charging provided there's ample cooling. Assuming it can support 3C current flow, and max charging voltage of 4.2V per cell. The mdl 3 pack configuration seems to be 46P96S. Each cell is rated at 6Ah. This gives us 276A for 1C current and max voltage of 403 V. So if my assumption is correct the Mdl 3 pack can support a 3C charge rate that would mean the max charging rate could go as high as 334 kW. I don't think Tesla will push the pack that hard, but they could go 2C or 2.25C, which will result in a 222-250 kW.

It sure would be sweet to have 250kW charging from 5-80% SoC. This would mean ~18 min charging times. Maybe it's wishful thinking on my part.

 

[ggnykk]

Probably a stupid move to announce the Model Y now, coz it will pull away some sales for the Model 3.