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Supercharging - Elon's statement that Daily Supercharging Users are Receiving Notes

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Assuming even time distribution of supercharging usage does not match current reality.

Neither, I suspect, does counting on only a 2X increase in supercharing capable cars.
Right. If you see the popular city stations like in Hong Kong, the charging times are bunched around lunch hour and there are some lesser periods. As it reaches saturation, there becomes few periods where the station is not occupied (so there is no "off peak" except at night), but there are still those extremely crowded times.

And given that total volume Tesla targets for 2020 with Model 3 added to the lineup represents a 10x increase in volume (500k annually vs 50k annually), 2x increase in supercharging capable cars is not a reasonable assumption (even with no increase in annual volume, just natural growth in the Model S/X population can easily surpass 2x, given Model S/X sales are not at saturation yet).

Also daily charging demand does not scale linearly with long distance charging demand. As repeated often, general supercharger demand hovers around 10% of total miles right now. If just 10% of the population decides to do daily charging, that increases overall demand to 19% (10%*90%+100%*10%), almost doubling the overall demand, even though only 10% of the population made a change.
 
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So we're first assuming that the number of super-chargeable Teslas in my area roughly doubles. Check.
Next we're assuming that 100% of them decide to locally supercharge. Check.
Let's be even more pessimistic and say that all 100% of them want to do this every day, not just occasionally.
capacity: ~12 reasonable charging hours / day * 8 stalls = 96 stall-hours/ day.
demand: 20 Teslas charges/day * 1 stall/Tesla * .5 hours/charge = 10 stall-hours/day
So that absurdly exaggerated worst-case scenario leads to a ~11% net occupancy of the local SC.
Is that really your worry here?

I said in an earlier post that I wouldn't locally supercharge unless there were at least two vacant stalls remaining afterward.
Given that the average occupancy I've observed at this SC is zero, and the peak is 1, I'm willing to dial back that obviously
reckless and inconsiderate threshold and promise to never use it if there are 3 or more cars there. Or are we still worried
about 8 or more Teslas randomly pulling up within the same 30 minutes window of time?


See above, but hypothetically I would give them the benefit of the doubt. That you even raise the possibility of "quiz them and ask for ID" says some disturbing things about someone in this conversation...
Nice subtle personal attack. I said unless you quiz people you have no idea who is local and who isn't. Especially if you are off shopping for groceries. I am assuming that if many owners decided to be as wonderfully nice and considerate as you it wouldn't be a problem. Nice try and excellent math skills. No my worry is if we reach a critical mass of inconsiderate owners such as some then yes, it would be a problem. The network is not designed for such a load. If the numbers are small and they are as perfectly considerate as you then it wouldn't be an issue. Where you live your behavior likely won't be an issue for awhile. I'm in LA and arrived at a Supercharger with one empty spot and no owners in or near their cars. No idea if any were locals or not so not everyone is as nice and considerate as you and would immediately and without any delay move their cars for travelers.

And how exactly would you give them the benefit of doubt if you were shopping for groceries? You wouldn't be there. And with the Model 3 hitting 200,000 reservations in 24 hours you don't think Supercharge capable cars will double at some point? Check.
 
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Sigh. There is not today, nor will there be for some years yet if ever, a problem due to those darned locals.

What there is today, and will be until it changes, is a problem with people not vacating their stalls when their charge is complete. This means returning to one's chariot a few minutes prior - a feat that seems too difficult for some.

To a lesser degree, being clueless about pairing is a problem only because it is so easily avoided (when it is avoidable). The last fellow I politely educated concerning pairing had no clue, and he was a 2-year owner.

Anyway, back to ICEing by our own. I am of course completely opposed to "pay per use for locals" or any other unnecessary and discriminatory silliness. However, I would support improvements to the app that a) fixed that silly nag 10 minutes before 80% when the charge limit is set higher (a 30% buffer is not a bad thing in numerous places), and b) that fires off a series of buzzes and horrendous noises after one's charge is complete. And while we're at it, have the car make some unpleasant and embarrassing noises too.

Behavioral modification can be fun.

Anyway, the worst way to turn a 12-stall SC into a 2-stall
SC is when people don't move their cars in a timely manner. It's the epitome of taking resources for granted and it matters not whether the offenders are distance- or density-centric.

Which brings me to people parking in SC stalls overnight. Really? Yes. Seen it in Oregon. Not impressed. Have the stones to park in an adjacent (to the SC) space. Harrumph!

/goml
 
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In most cases, Tesla does not purchase any power. It is provided by by the site owner.


The wind vs coal isn't likely to be possible. This is because for a sufficiently close location, the power mix will be similar. The only situation that might happen is solar (as in panels on the canopy at the supercharger station) vs local grid mix.

However, the math was done before and the solar panels at the station is not enough to cover even the long distance travel part, much less daily charging added on top.
Solar power complemented Superchargers

In the case of renewable power purchase plans, if Tesla is able to purchase such an option from a local utility, that renewable option likely will be available to you also. I know my local utility has that option, and doing some Googling, Indiana's utility has it too:
Duke Energy's GoGreen Indiana - Indiana Residential-Duke Energy

Also, nothing is stopping anyone from installing their own solar panels.
 
Sigh. There is not today, nor will there be for some years yet if ever, a problem due to those darned locals.

/goml

When a high volume of Tesla Model 3's are delivered, the locals that feel that they have a right to constantly charge at SCs will feel the pain of having to wait a long time because the Model 3 owners are doing local charging. For those that can install a charger at home, or get your work or apartment to install chargers, you should consider doing that no later than mid-2018.

My Model S85D was delivered June 2, 2015. I have 12.445 miles on it and have never done a local charge. I also have never paid any money for charging my Model S. My home charger configuration is as follows:
  • Tesla wall charger with 100 amp circuit
  • Nema 14-50 plug in case the Tesla wall charger fails will provide a backup solution for charging
  • 47 solar panels providing all of the power needed to handle my home and car charging. I have not had an electric bill in two years and I currently have a $680 credit with my utility company.
It will be interesting to see how Tesla handles local charging in the future. They have changed the languager on their website regarding Superchargers. It says "Free long distance travel on the Supercharger network".
 
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Wondered if a light on each SC station that turns on (not obnoxious, one hopes) saying 'fully charged'
would be a good thing or a bad thing.
Interesting idea! I haven't heard this one before. I think it would make some people more self-conscious and much more likely to move their car promptly when done. At the same time, there will always be those people that don't care. They, may however, feel the wrath from others. It is then that we may start hearing about supercharger rage. That would be fun to talk about at least.
 
No, that is incorrect. Where did you get such misinformation? Tesla pays for the power at the superchargers. I remember reading about one exception, I forgot where it was, but that was so unusual that someone wrote about it.
I think it was this one:
Tesla Sells 60 kW Superchargers To Swedish Business Owner

For superchargers, AFAIK, Tesla pays for the electricity unless the owner reaches some sort of special agreement. Keep in mind, an 8 stall station might be pulling 480kW from the grid. That means ridiculously high demand charges that I'm pretty sure most location owners will not be wanting to pay.

This is an old article, but it discusses what goes into being a supercharger location partner:
Tech Crunch: What It Takes To Be A Tesla Supercharger Partner - Inside EVs

Basically Tesla pays for everything and the location owner only needs to provide the space.
 
With a "Dymo" labeler, I posted my cell phone number next to the (old) VIN location inside the lower left corner of the windshield. If I'm inconsiderate enough to leave my Model S unattended after it's charged, I'd want another owner to call me on it, even if only to tell me he's waiting for my spot.
 
What if the iPhone/Android apps were made so that notifications must always be turned on in order to use any feature whatsoever? Then, when a car has reached its full charge, the app sends continuous notifications that do not stop until the car is unplugged. An owner can always turn off notifications at that time, and not be able to use the app until they turn them back on, but the message would be abundantly clear.
 
I don't believe this to be true for supercharging,
Destination charging, yes. Supercharging, no.

In many cases (not necessarily all), the site owner provides the land, access to utilities and pays the power bill to facilitate a collection of $100K+ cars parking for up to an hour, with nothing to do. At least that is the model that plays out here in the eastern half. I suspect Tesla has to pay to build where THEY want in some cases. But many retail locations also pay (or absorb/share costs) for the privilege of attracting Tesla owners.
 
It'd be an improvement if Tesla sent a text message or even recorded telephone message to the phone that the owner's app resides on, when a supercharger site is crowded and the owner's car is done charging. "Charging is complete for your vehicle as of HH:MM. Supercharger demand is currently high. Please move your vehicle so other waiting Tesla owners may charge their vehicles. Thank you." Keep sending it every 10 minutes until the car moves.
 
In many cases (not necessarily all), the site owner provides the land, access to utilities and pays the power bill to facilitate a collection of $100K+ cars parking for up to an hour, with nothing to do. At least that is the model that plays out here in the eastern half. I suspect Tesla has to pay to build where THEY want in some cases. But many retail locations also pay (or absorb/share costs) for the privilege of attracting Tesla owners.

Do you have a source for the owner footing the electrical bill?

Elon and/or JB have specifically spoken to the issue of the ongoing supercharger costs, including electricity, and it's impact to their bottom line. They also have spoken to offsetting that cost to them via eventual solar installations, local battery storage for peak shaving, etc...

This is the first time I've heard it asserted that site owners are paying for supercharger electrical costs... and I think it's contrary to the accepted wisdom.It would be interesting to have an authoritative source, if true.

Thanks.
 
...On the other hand, Tesla doesn't OWE us X number of supercharger stations. They could stop building them today and say that's it.

Says the Californian.

I know - you are referring to the separate situation of misuse. But there are far vaster swaths of the world that are absolutely unserved by SpCs than there are of ones that are even somewhat covered. I refer not only of my thinly populated region, although it is of course nearest and dearest to my heart.

Even to consider, to lay out as a possibility, the idea of the SpC network as now being mature constitutes not just a step toward an inequitable have/have not virtually Manichean dichotomy, but it would represent the capitulation of Tesla's primal goal of creating an EV world. So, while I empathize with the cold hard logic of your choice of words, I'm using your post to stand up for the masses and remind all that there are far more potential Tesla owners who don't have the problem of a SpC slot being held up for thirty minutes....some of us have the nearest slot thousands of miles - and in many cases oceans - away.
 
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Charging frequently at your nearby supercharger will negatively affect the battery. Charging at distant superchargers is fine. (If only we could convince new owners of this!). Seriously, you couldn't have a 14-50 installed while your car was on order?
I had mine (HPWC) installed a month before taking delivery but in retrospect, If I had waited, it would have been placed in a slightly different location. So, I understand why new owners may want to wait.
Wondered if a light on each SC station that turns on (not obnoxious, one hopes) saying 'fully charged'
would be a good thing or a bad thing.
Best idea of the year, IMO. Along with this:
It'd be an improvement if Tesla sent a text message or even recorded telephone message to the phone that the owner's app resides on, when a supercharger site is crowded and the owner's car is done charging. "Charging is complete for your vehicle as of HH:MM. Supercharger demand is currently high. Please move your vehicle so other waiting Tesla owners may charge their vehicles. Thank you." Keep sending it every 10 minutes until the car moves.
The initial light should start flashing when they have to send the message twice so that those waiting are aware that Tesla is not pleased. o_O
 
In many cases (not necessarily all), the site owner provides the land, access to utilities and pays the power bill to facilitate a collection of $100K+ cars parking for up to an hour, with nothing to do. At least that is the model that plays out here in the eastern half. I suspect Tesla has to pay to build where THEY want in some cases. But many retail locations also pay (or absorb/share costs) for the privilege of attracting Tesla owners.
Please give an example of supercharger where the site owner pays the power bill. Do you have any documentation to support this claim? It's contrary to everything that Tesla and others have said about superchargers.
 
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