Swapping is Coming [Discuss how it will be accomplished]

[Rla]

Yes, just the demonstration will be a highly public and reported event, but will the naysayers not jump on the issue if it is just a demo and no real implementation? As CO says: the SC are not viable long term, so they will keep repeating the 'range anxiety' argument. (as fake as that really is)

For many of the past statements, these swapping stations will need to co-locate with SC, CES to be usable on a road-trip. 'throughout the country' makes no sense if the swappers are located at the Service Centers. No-one will be driving to a Service Center to swap a battery on a road-trip.

 

[JRP3]

I've been reading the comments posted by readers on all the articles in the mainstream media today on Tesla's battery swapping demonstration. They seem to confirm one of the main points of my thesis: while those of us that spend every waking moment thinking about EVs and battery degradation and business plans have reservations about battery swapping, 99% of Tesla's future customers are all for it.

If nothing else, this will bring in new customers.

This is my hope, that the "real world" that doesn't know much about EV's or Better Place will think this is simply awesome.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I think it is a terrible business strategy to try to waste a bunch of energy going after the people most resistant to your product. Plenty in the "non-green auto discussion forums" are going to remain unconvinced by anything less than magic.

I pointed out "non-green auto discussion forums" because that's really the only place that would discuss such a thing in enough detail in the absence of Tesla doing a PR push so that it reaches MSM. What I'm trying to get at is if Tesla wants to sell the Gen III, they will have to appeal to a larger audience than the superchargers allow.

As Citizen-T points out, if you look at responses in recent MSM reports of Tesla's battery swap plans, the response is largely positive. Most of the "mainstream" market is not going to be completely content with superchargers (rational or not). Charging time is still a sticking point.

And Elon has said depending on demand he's willing to spend a couple hundred million on this to make this a serious network (more than I expected; I expected at most half of the supercharger stations). This is not merely a single demo station.

 

[deonb]

I've jotted down the battery swap parts of today's Reuters interview on:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...-no-more-quot-mystery-quot-announcement/page9

Post #90.


I must also congratulate Citizen-T for being 100% correct (once again!).

There is now no way that this is anything except a swap of the main battery pack, co-located at SuperChargers, intended for road trips.

(i.e. No more Al-Air, Fast Charge, or CitySwapper scenarios.)

 

[Palpatine]

There is now no way that this is anything except a swap of the main battery pack, co-located at SuperChargers, intended for road trips.

This is really sad to see a company like Tesla Motors, that had such great potential, start the path down the tubes.

 

[deonb]

This is really sad to see a company like Tesla Motors, that had such great potential, start the path down the tubes.

Well, I assume now after the Reuters interview, in which Elon clearly states that if there is demand that Tesla will roll this out to all SuperCharger locations (at a cost of $50m to $100m), that this is now sufficient for you to short the stock, cancel and reverse your order, and close your TMC account?

 

[Miggs]

Congratulations to Citizen-T for keeping the battery-swapping flag flying!

As for naysayers like Palpatine, I think someone is about to grab you and toss you down an exhaust shaft! :tongue:

 

[JRP3]

Well, I assume now after the Reuters interview, in which Elon clearly states that if there is demand that Tesla will roll this out to all SuperCharger locations (at a cost of $50m to $100m), that this is now sufficient for you to short the stock, cancel and reverse your order, and close your TMC account?

Indeed, after repeating his plans on many threads I have no doubt he will do exactly as he said since this is obviously the end of TSLA....

 

[Palpatine]

Well, I assume now after the Reuters interview, in which Elon clearly states that if there is demand that Tesla will roll this out to all SuperCharger locations (at a cost of $50m to $100m), that this is now sufficient for you to short the stock, cancel and reverse your order, and close your TMC account?

Probably. I will likely be cancelling my Model S order on the 21st if they are announcing more than just a token Battery Swap station.

If they are creating some sort of subsidized low cost or free battery swap for owners, that sounds great for a car owner. It sounds lousy for someone who owns the stock.
At some point in the process, this turd has to pay for itself. Real estate, buildings, employees and batteries are not free. The potential profitability of Tesla Motors looks like it might be taking a big turn to the negative.

 

[JRP3]

Musk has said they will roll it out in response to customer demand, so how will you make a decision?

 

[brianman]

Musk has said they will roll it out in response to customer demand, so how will you make a decision?

Perhaps he's already been waging a campaign against swappers to dampen demand?

 

[Palpatine]

Musk has said they will roll it out in response to customer demand, so how will you make a decision?

Let's wait and see what the scam is for how they finance this turd. He said there will be details on the 20th.
We should see in the comments around here whether customers are interested in plunking down thousands of dollars on this scam.

The cost of battery swapping really depends on whether Tesla sees this as something they HAVE to waste money on and they know going in that there is 0% chance of it ever making enough money to pay for itself.
If they price battery swaps at the actual cost to the company, then the price will likely be so high that nobody would ever pay for it and they will get a tiny fraction of owners using it.

If Tesla sees it as a loss leader and they need to just do it and subsidize it, and thus eat the loss to cater to the stupid public. Tesla may see this $100 million in capital costs as part of the advertising budget, and thus they are not viewing this as something that actually needs to make sense financially. So then it is ultimately being built into the price of the car and we are all being forced to pay for it, sort of like a tax.

I am hopeful that it is a totally separate option and it is priced at it's true cost. Screwing over the rest of us to cater to the "low information" consumer is really lousy. Tesla needs to figure out how to make EVs more affordable, not load up the system with crazy costs that are not financially viable.

 

[brianman]

Let's wait and see what the scam is for how they finance this turd. He said there will be details on the 20th.
We should see in the comments around here whether customers are interested in plunking down thousands of dollars on this scam.

Unnecessary and counterproductive. Frankly it shows a weakness in your position to go this direction.

 

[Palpatine]

It is what it is. The only way to slide this scheme past customers is to hide the real cost.
You may not like the words used to describe it, but we are all entitled to our opinions.
I consider it a scam that is equivalent to the typical useless upselling that shady car dealers try to trick buyers into paying for.

 

[brianman]

It is what it is. The only way to slide this scheme past customers is to hide the real cost.

You definitely picked an appropriate forum handle. Negative and distrustful outlook.

 

[Discoducky]

It is what it is. The only way to slide this scheme past customers is to hide the real cost.
You may not like the words used to describe it, but we are all entitled to our opinions.
I consider it a scam that is equivalent to the typical useless upselling that shady car dealers try to trick buyers into paying for.

I'm assuming that you have proof to believe that Elon is actually not-providing value to the company or consumers with this announcement? If you do, please share. So far Elon has introduced/announced some pretty amazing things so I wonder why you would think different about this occurrence.

 

[NigelM]

I don't think you can call it a scheme/scam until we hear some details; there's less than 48hrs to wait but in the meantime lets all make sure we stay civil.

 

[Rla]

Let's wait and see what the scam is for how they finance this turd. He said there will be details on the 20th.
We should see in the comments around here whether customers are interested in plunking down thousands of dollars on this scam.

The cost of battery swapping really depends on whether Tesla sees this as something they HAVE to waste money on and they know going in that there is 0% chance of it ever making enough money to pay for itself.
If they price battery swaps at the actual cost to the company, then the price will likely be so high that nobody would ever pay for it and they will get a tiny fraction of owners using it.

If Tesla sees it as a loss leader and they need to just do it and subsidize it, and thus eat the loss to cater to the stupid public. Tesla may see this $100 million in capital costs as part of the advertising budget, and thus they are not viewing this as something that actually needs to make sense financially. So then it is ultimately being built into the price of the car and we are all being forced to pay for it, sort of like a tax.

I am hopeful that it is a totally separate option and it is priced at it's true cost. Screwing over the rest of us to cater to the "low information" consumer is really lousy. Tesla needs to figure out how to make EVs more affordable, not load up the system with crazy costs that are not financially viable.

I believe CapitalistOppressor made a model using the Superchargers, Grid-Storage and the SuperSwappers (as he calls them), which actually turns out to be quite a good case. I have no insight in how fast the US energy market would adopt that model, but here in the EU, with energy prices higher than the US, and higher dependency on foreign energy sources, and thus the higher 'want' for grid storage, the model obviously makes sense.

 

[DonPedro]

To put it this way: There are two people with differing opinions - Palpatine on TMC thinks that this is bad, and Elon Musk in Tesla think it is a great idea. Now, whom should I trust...

Joking aside: The consumer value proposition of the battery swap concept was never going to be a success on the Tesla fan forums. Why? Because those who are already fans became so on the basis of the current charging-based value proposition. This group - maybe 0,1% of the total car-buying population - did not need battery swap to get hooked on the TMS. Therefore, it is inconceivable to us that others would not be happy with mandatory 20-40 minute stops during a road trip. So we don't see the point. I think we may be lousy at predicting the importance of battery swapping to the other 99,9%...

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I suddenly get it. Forget consumers, for whom this might have too limited an appeal.

Electric sports car racing!

Willing to spend way too much money. Check.
Really need super-fast recharge. Check.
Awesome PR. Check.
Total misdirection of media and blogosphere. Check.
Ability to pay to refine and use for consumers later. Check.