MikeDog77
Member
The only date that's going to matter at this point is 3/31/2018 and 30-35K Model 3 deliveries. If Tesla can't make 30K Model 3 deliveries in the next 6 months, then that's going cast doubt on scaling and/or supply chain capabilities.
I don't think Tesla is planning on international delivery until late 2018, so it's not like they can offset sales internationally.
Agreed 100%. With S's and X's selling consistently Tesla will be right around 150k in USA at the end of 2017. they will sell another 15k S's and X's in 1Q 2018. So the only question is can they make 30-35k M3 in the next 6 months. I would think/hope they reach this pretty comfortably around mid February, 2018. And as Troy shows the 2 options perfectly, that would put it end the full tax credit on June 30th, 2018.
@Troy the only thing I would disagree with is your 50/50 chance. I would personally put the over/under on 35k M3 around February 15th.(based on being 1 month behind but still most likely to hit close to 5,000 cars per week the last week of December.)