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Tesla Autonomy Day April 22nd

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What Elon just said about unbarking up the high precision lane line tree is very good: he realizes that recognizing reality is right.
Wow. High precision maps aren’t used. They tried, saw it as a dead end.
I noticed when they were doing it, and it got me really scared about their potential outcome; them jettisoning that is great news that they actually understand reality. They might have started this job without great intuition, but they are learning how to actually do it in real ways, so the lack of good intuition is starting to matter less and less.

Having said that, communicating near-real time local data with other cars could improve outcome, provided actual witness data (real time sensors) is primary (as Elon said), and the security heuristics were proper.
 
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Elon said right now autopilot miles are twice as safe as the average driver. So, almost as good as me. Today, if you are a smart athletic driver who has good driver safety training courses under your belt and you drive in the top 10% or 5% of safe drivers, then you're better than Tesla's autopilot. From what Tesla is saying, its safety will eclipse even those safer drivers within a year, and those are the types of drivers who would be most particular about safety and I think that will be a mode change in society attitude about this topic at that time. I'm saying from what Tesla said today, the prediction becomes that within a dozen months (or a couple dozen months in Elon Time) this will happen; let's see!

Complete self driving is slated for this year:
Screen Shot 2019-04-22 at 14.21.09.png
 
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"Car starts to behave like a person" is what I expect; good to hear. I would like clarification if that is now or expected.

I'd say that is now. As in every time they enable the next NN it gets more human like.

added cloverleafs - more human like
later add turning from a stop into high speed traffic - more human like.

so it's now and it will become more so.
 
Elon said right now autopilot miles are twice as safe as the average driver. So, almost as good as me. Today, if you are a smart athletic driver who has good driver safety training courses under your belt and you drive in the top 10% or 5% of safe drivers, then you're better than Tesla's autopilot. From what Tesla is saying, its safety will eclipse even those safer drivers within a year, and those are the types of drivers who would be most particular about safety and I think that will be a mode change in society attitude about this topic at that time. I'm saying from what Tesla said today, the prediction becomes that within a dozen months (or a couple dozen months in Elon Time) this will happen; let's see!

Yes, as good as you, when you’re not tired, stressed, distracted, or have three kids in the car....
 
I'm going through the saved video.

The early part is pretty boring. Too much detail on chip design basics which I already know. Feels like filler to impress people who don't know the subject. It's not impressive at all, by the way. Many minutes of this stuff add up (for those who know the meaning of the details) to "Yes, we designed our own custom chip".

Looking at the investor thread, a lot of people were saying "Does anyone understand this?" Well, I do, it's not complicated, and this is really a pretty basic tutorial. (So, no, they aren't revealing any secrets.) The basic math here is not hard.

(It's math I don't *like* -- mathematicians have tastes and this isn't my flavor of choice -- but it's easy math conceptually, so I followed 100% of it. And saying that it's easy is not saying that optimizing it is easy -- optimizing it is fiendishly tricky bit-twiddling, which is why I don't like it, and that's what Bannon & company get the big money for. But it is 99% linear alegbra.)

HARDWARE:

It does seem that they're the only company with suitable hardware. ("You only have to run faster than the bear.") In addition, they should probably sell their Neural Network Chips, since apparently (according to the first speaker, Pete Bannon), they're literally the only company making one, and there are an awful lot of applications where they'll be extremely attractive. That's a potential real source of money if they bother to sell it to others.

As expected, they detect internal hardware failures by feedback from sensors.
As expected, they've attempted spacecraft-style redundancy (easy to attempt, who knows whether they succeeded).

"Advanced tone mapping" and "Advanced noise reduction" have no details (and here details would have been interesting, since you can lose data in stuff like this).
The cameras all go straight to the chip (only), and the video encoder feeds out any video which some other car component might need (like the backup camera display).

--- It appears that they have made *multiple* neural networks for specific purposes? The neural network accelerator can run one neural network and then switch to another? I don't think that's used in live driving?

All their multiply operations are 8-bit -- that's an interesting choice -- done for energy reduction apparently. They think this is enough accuracy. That's a daring decision, and they might be wrong. They might be right, though. I'd be interested to see the evidence behind this.

Got rid of most of the bookkeeping waste from the classic Von Neumann design (as they should)

Solid neural network compiler, makes sense

-- Yes, there seem to be multiple neural network programs resident in SRAM. The computer can be told "Run this neural network on this photo", and gives a result. Then switch to the next processing job with a different neural network.

They keep using the "narrow camera neural network" as an example. Apparently there's one neural network for each camera, which takes the image and converts it into some sort of abstract data result. Then some other neural network must run on those data results?

Silicon cost is 80% lower than other chips. Speed is 21x NVIDIA. (They should sell these chips and boards.) Power requirements are at most slightly higher.

-----

Yes, this is the best neural network computer in the world, by far. It will be quite hard for anyone to duplicate this quickly. It's potentially a cash cow if they decide to sell the chips, but they are apparently not doing so.

Musk says "All you need to do is improve the software", which is like saying "All you need to do is the hard part" or "We did everything except self-driving". Funny. I'll have a separate comment when they switch to the next presenter.

First question was good, and the answer was good -- the NN accelerators can be used for a different type of problem.

Musk later says that it's just specialized for self-driving -- explaining that NVIDIA has to be more "general purpose" which supposedly forces their chips to be less efficient. I don't really believe that. The 8-bit restriction may be serious in some applications, but it sounds like the system is actually quite general-purpose. I don't see any reason why it couldn't handle a different NN application as long as it was heavy on convolution/deconvolution and didn't require longer-than-8-bit multiplication.

(IMO, a two-year serious NN chip program could definitely make a similar or better chip, but NVIDIA or Intel or someone would have to actually do it. Musk says three years, but Musk will have a better system in three years. IMO, and this is my guess, the chip companies don't have the sales volume for it to be worth doing the development -- the "million cars a year" is what makes it commercially sound to finance it.)

Musk points out that power reduction matters for car range. Says most of the robotaxi market will be in cities (well, that's right).

Fabbed in Austin Texas by Samsung.

Question about whether the weights could be encrypted/protected from just being lifted out of the car. Basically, not possible. But it should be hard to crack. Anyway, Tesla can constantly replace its weight numbers because it has the fleet, everyone else would have to steal it repeatedly :)

Musk points out that simulated driving is ridiculous because the goal is to identify edge cases. "The real world is weird and messy". Good.
 
SOFTWARE:

Karpathy is discussing image recognition. (Because that's his thing, computer vision.) I practically don't care; I mean, yeah, they have to get vision working, but that's not what I'm interested in. I may not make many comments.

He says he worked on natural language recognition as well. (A problem which is not anywhere near solved. Maybe the new hardware should be tried on that problem.)

Neural networks plural is always the phrase being used. There are a whole bunch of them.

-- They have a "driveable space" concept in their system. Oy. Waaaaaaay too simplistic. Waaaaaaaay too simplistic. They're going to have to restart their entire software process before they approach level 5. I've literally been directed off the road by a flagger. TODAY. "Driveable space" my ass.

"The core problems these networks are solving in the car is image recognition." OK, so the neural networks are just doing image recognition. This is confirming my belief that they have NOT STARTED WORKING ON SELF DRIVING.
 
--- It appears that they have made *multiple* neural networks for specific purposes? The neural network accelerator can run one neural network and then switch to another? I don't think that's used in live driving?

Each clock cycle is only 96x96, it loads the next coefficient/ data set and continues processing. The NN is multiple layers of 4 or 5 types.

All their multiply operations are 8-bit -- that's an interesting choice -- done for energy reduction apparently. They think this is enough accuracy. That's a daring decision, and they might be wrong. They might be right, though. I'd be interested to see the evidence behind this.

The NN training and validation steps use the same precision (for the NN, floats or doubles for the back propagation and intermediate coefficient storage), so the NN is shown to work before putting it in the car.

Silicon cost is 80% lower than other chips.
80% of the cost (20% less)

- They have a "driveable space" concept in their system. Oy. Waaaaaaay too simplistic. Waaaaaaaay too simplistic. They're going to have to restart their entire software process before they approach level 5. I've literally been directed off the road by a flagger. TODAY. "Driveable space" my ass.
Watch the videos, horizontal surfaces up to the edge of a vertical one are labeled as driveable. AP works on dirt roads.

"The core problems these networks are solving in the car is image recognition." OK, so the neural networks are just doing image recognition. This is confirming my belief that they have NOT STARTED WORKING ON SELF DRIVING.

Yes they have,
NN does image and pattern and prediction. Above that is currently using a heuristic logic approach and they are slowing using SW2.0 NN to replace that.Some things make more sense to code vs NN training (rocket launcher vs flyswatter).
 
Silicon cost is 80% lower than other chips. Speed is 21x NVIDIA. (They should sell these chips and boards.) Power requirements are at most slightly higher.

I'm pretty sure they said it cost 80% of the current NVidia solution. So 20% less.

(IMO, a two-year serious NN chip program could definitely make a similar or better chip, but NVIDIA or Intel or someone would have to actually do it. Musk says three years, but Musk will have a better system in three years. IMO, and this is my guess, the chip companies don't have the sales volume for it to be worth doing the development -- the "million cars a year" is what makes it commercially sound to finance it.)

I thought Musk said that FSD V2 would be ready in 2 years, not 3.
 
I'm going through the saved video.

The early part is pretty boring. Too much detail on chip design basics which I already know. Feels like filler to impress people who don't know the subject. It's not impressive at all, by the way. Many minutes of this stuff add up (for those who know the meaning of the details) to "Yes, we designed our own custom chip".

Looking at the investor thread, a lot of people were saying "Does anyone understand this?" Well, I do, it's not complicated, and this is really a pretty basic tutorial. (So, no, they aren't revealing any secrets.) The basic math here is not hard.

(It's math I don't *like* -- mathematicians have tastes and this isn't my flavor of choice -- but it's easy math conceptually, so I followed 100% of it. And saying that it's easy is not saying that optimizing it is easy -- optimizing it is fiendishly tricky bit-twiddling, which is why I don't like it, and that's what Bannon & company get the big money for. But it is 99% linear alegbra.)

HARDWARE:

It does seem that they're the only company with suitable hardware. ("You only have to run faster than the bear.") In addition, they should probably sell their Neural Network Chips, since apparently (according to the first speaker, Pete Bannon), they're literally the only company making one, and there are an awful lot of applications where they'll be extremely attractive. That's a potential real source of money if they bother to sell it to others.

As expected, they detect internal hardware failures by feedback from sensors.
As expected, they've attempted spacecraft-style redundancy (easy to attempt, who knows whether they succeeded).

"Advanced tone mapping" and "Advanced noise reduction" have no details (and here details would have been interesting, since you can lose data in stuff like this).
The cameras all go straight to the chip (only), and the video encoder feeds out any video which some other car component might need (like the backup camera display).

--- It appears that they have made *multiple* neural networks for specific purposes? The neural network accelerator can run one neural network and then switch to another? I don't think that's used in live driving?

All their multiply operations are 8-bit -- that's an interesting choice -- done for energy reduction apparently. They think this is enough accuracy. That's a daring decision, and they might be wrong. They might be right, though. I'd be interested to see the evidence behind this.

Got rid of most of the bookkeeping waste from the classic Von Neumann design (as they should)

Solid neural network compiler, makes sense

-- Yes, there seem to be multiple neural network programs resident in SRAM. The computer can be told "Run this neural network on this photo", and gives a result. Then switch to the next processing job with a different neural network.

They keep using the "narrow camera neural network" as an example. Apparently there's one neural network for each camera, which takes the image and converts it into some sort of abstract data result. Then some other neural network must run on those data results?

Silicon cost is 80% lower than other chips. Speed is 21x NVIDIA. (They should sell these chips and boards.) Power requirements are at most slightly higher.

-----

Yes, this is the best neural network computer in the world, by far. It will be quite hard for anyone to duplicate this quickly. It's potentially a cash cow if they decide to sell the chips, but they are apparently not doing so.

Musk says "All you need to do is improve the software", which is like saying "All you need to do is the hard part" or "We did everything except self-driving". Funny. I'll have a separate comment when they switch to the next presenter.

First question was good, and the answer was good -- the NN accelerators can be used for a different type of problem.

Musk later says that it's just specialized for self-driving -- explaining that NVIDIA has to be more "general purpose" which supposedly forces their chips to be less efficient. I don't really believe that. The 8-bit restriction may be serious in some applications, but it sounds like the system is actually quite general-purpose. I don't see any reason why it couldn't handle a different NN application as long as it was heavy on convolution/deconvolution and didn't require longer-than-8-bit multiplication.

(IMO, a two-year serious NN chip program could definitely make a similar or better chip, but NVIDIA or Intel or someone would have to actually do it. Musk says three years, but Musk will have a better system in three years. IMO, and this is my guess, the chip companies don't have the sales volume for it to be worth doing the development -- the "million cars a year" is what makes it commercially sound to finance it.)

Musk points out that power reduction matters for car range. Says most of the robotaxi market will be in cities (well, that's right).

Fabbed in Austin Texas by Samsung.

Question about whether the weights could be encrypted/protected from just being lifted out of the car. Basically, not possible. But it should be hard to crack. Anyway, Tesla can constantly replace its weight numbers because it has the fleet, everyone else would have to steal it repeatedly :)

Musk points out that simulated driving is ridiculous because the goal is to identify edge cases. "The real world is weird and messy". Good.

As far as no one else having a NN chip for self driving, has everyone forgotten Mobileye, now part of Intel? Tesla V1 AP uses this chip, and it is indeed a NN accelerator. They too have progressed and are a generation or two beyond what Tesla was using for V1 AP. They are also very energy efficient. This is Tesla’s AP competition right now, Intel.
 
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