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Tesla Battery Investor Day
- Thread starter Buckminster
- Start date
Slightly updated list of rumours:
Cathode
Novonix DPMG granules
Dry electrode from Maxwell - allows thicker cathode
Single crystal cathode (Dahn)
Cobalt free
Sila Transition metal free
SilLion nickel rich NMC
Anode
Novonix DPMG graphite granules
Dry electrode from Maxwell
SilLion high loading Silicon
Dahn's Anode free (not coated) and Lithium metal cathode
Silicon nanowires
Manufacture
Hibar
Cell to pack
4070 size (or bigger)
Tesla mining
Tabless electrode
Plate cooling
Transformation of core structural design of the vehicle (giga casting? heat sink? cell to chassis?)
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Could someone explain how Tesla could implement these wonderful innovations and still work with Panasonic or CATL? All this excitement seems a waste if they can't have their suppliers use them and not lose control. I know it's a non issue if they start their own battery line but that seems like a wish and still a long way off. Perhaps Tesla producing their own batteries is closer than I understand?
This is not a sarcastic post, I'm a long term bull and see the vision for the future. Just seems like everyone is banking on all this affecting battery production now.
This is not a sarcastic post, I'm a long term bull and see the vision for the future. Just seems like everyone is banking on all this affecting battery production now.
The biggest issue is getting hold of enough batteries. Tesla will continue to purchase from Pana, CATL and others without transferring roadrunner IP. Different applications could continue to use outdated batteries for 10 years.
TLF mention metal air batteries several times here:
Low probability but Tesla have a number of patents for it.
Low probability but Tesla have a number of patents for it.
Still all this hoopla regarding new tech seems like extreme vaporware. I guess Battery Day will outline timeline predictions. Didn't think we could be that dependent on outsourced batteries for that long. That would be a good thing! Not the dependency, but the demand implications.
uujjj2
Member
The Model S/X still use 18650s from Japan, even though 2170s from Nevada are cheaper and better. The cost of a battery is mostly the up-front cost of equipping the factory plus the materials. The cost of the Pana 18650 factory in Japan is a sunk cost; the marginal cost of adding capacity to Nevada to cover the S/X needs is larger than the marginal cost of just continuing to run the Japan factory.
The same thing will likely play out with the Roadrunner based cells and Panasonic Nevada.
On top of that, Roadrunner may be years away from the sort of manufacturing volume that could supply all of Tesla's voracious appetite for cells. The new plant in Fremont, in a building which once belonged to Solyndra, likely isn't large enough to supply even the demand from the Fremont assembly plant.
The same thing will likely play out with the Roadrunner based cells and Panasonic Nevada.
On top of that, Roadrunner may be years away from the sort of manufacturing volume that could supply all of Tesla's voracious appetite for cells. The new plant in Fremont, in a building which once belonged to Solyndra, likely isn't large enough to supply even the demand from the Fremont assembly plant.
We should have predicted that Elon would state that they are making the cells larger by an order of magnitude.
At the risk of beating a dead horse, I still don't get why all this great new Tesla tech should affect things (stock prices) now. It sure seems like regardless of what he says, it will be years before anything announced today will have a meaningful effect on production.
Am I still missing something? To be honest it sounds a lot like Fisker, Lucid, Rivian etc. Ok Fisker is a low blow but you see the point. Show me something actually going into production...now. I do love my share appreciation though. Again Sept 22 better have substance, e.g. actual working production line, timelines etc.
On the other hand Tesla never predicted how fast Giga Shanghai would be built and have a meaningful impact on overall production. It just worked. Perhaps this will be the same scenario.
Am I still missing something? To be honest it sounds a lot like Fisker, Lucid, Rivian etc. Ok Fisker is a low blow but you see the point. Show me something actually going into production...now. I do love my share appreciation though. Again Sept 22 better have substance, e.g. actual working production line, timelines etc.
On the other hand Tesla never predicted how fast Giga Shanghai would be built and have a meaningful impact on overall production. It just worked. Perhaps this will be the same scenario.
El joe
Active Member
As much as they're building this up, I almost think they'll have to have something big that'll impact everyone sooner to avoid a pretty major letdown. Cybertruck, anyone?
The Kato roadrunner tacitly is a real production line, it is producing cells now. The announcements at battery day next week will highly likely go into at least some products that will be shipping next quarter.
Also remember that Panasonic & Tesla are NOT expanding the Nevada GF by anywhere near what is needed to supply batteries for vehicle production beyond this year, making it highly likely we will see factories currently under construction (Berlin, Austin & maybe Shanghai stage 2) include the new battery cell & cell production tech unveiled next week.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Battery production in germany was already confirmed some time ago... no real specifics on type of battery but it'd obviously make sense for it to be the advanced tesla-made stuff.
I don't think battery production is "confirmed" for Austin, but given how insanely large the site is I can't imagine they won't be doing that there too.
I think we will see all vehicles (except perhaps the semi) move to Roadrunner style packs over the next 1-2 years.
2170 cells can be used for the Semi and Energy Storage.
My rationale is that the Semi program will need a lot of cells, I think of each Semi as 12 Model 3s...
So cells for 6,000 Model 3s per day only build 500 Semi trucks per day. That is a good target for a peak production rate 182,000 per year which is close to the global market. So probably the maximum number Tesla could ever sell. With energy storage and the Semi, the cells can be used one way or another.
Using them for some time in Model 3/Y is also an option, but if Berlin and Austin are moving to Roadrunner eventually using the same (in house) packs for all Model 3/Y makes sense.
Berlin will be making a Roadrunner pack that fits in a Model Y, fair chance it also fits in a Model 3.
Model 3/Y will also use some LFP packs made in China for Tesla by CATL.
And Tesla needs to make packs for the Cybertruck, cell production in Austin is a practical certainty.
My only question is whether Tesla will make cells in China, or simply use Chinese suppliers...
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LiveLong&Profit
Member
Battery Day speculation
Guess
Emphasis on maintaining good relationships with PANA, CATL, LG and other providers, for 4 (obvious) reasons:
Hope/*wild* guesses:
1) Leaked 'beer-can' cell and pack architecture around 50 percent more energy-dense as a pack due to:
Perhaps not only fixtures/paths but the cooling pipelines themselves can be cast into the battery pack? That would be very cool! [pun intended ... 
]The more i think about this, the more sense it makes: instead of placing batteries into an empty module/pack, why not cast the pack with with built-in piping?This off-course requires very detailed casting at a fine-grained level, which may stretch the limits of what is possible to cast, but still...: "The best part is no part, the best process is no process"
(Changes in chemistry may also play a huge role, but these gains and optimizations are not restricted to the new beer-can form factor as far as i can tell)
2) 'beer-can' cells vastly cheaper to produce (low unit cost relative to ~9x more energy than current cells, Maxwell DBE, Tabless design)
Also much faster to produce, which is large part of why it is cheaper, but increased speed is important in itself for extreme scaling. How fast? My guess is twice as fast. Since battery production is an established manufacturing technique, this would, I guess, be mind-blowing.
3) 'Beer-can' cell production already ramping in small volumes with good yield rates and a clear path leading towards futher ramping and mass production.Beer-can pack production is ramping slowly, but steadily (roadrunner casting structures in Freemont ...?)
## 1) to 3) leading to 4) to 6) ##
4) Semi production start, target: 200 semis produced in Q2 2021. In-house use.
Site: Giga Austin. Factory partially ready in 2021-Q1 or tent/sprung structure. (Elon rents or buys property near Austin soon)
5) Extreme Energy ramp up, targeting ~30 Hornsdale-sized peaker installations per year from late 2021 - and then further ramping from there. Stand-alone installations, Virtual Power Plants - or both. Energy delivery agreements already formed in Germany and GB is off course integral part of this strategy.
6) New Ultra-long-range models S and X and/or plaid(ultra fast) version of same. Also cosmetic model changes aligning with 3 and Y interior. Exterior changes? Maybe Franz has done some clever changes which gives a new look, but still preserves a lot of commonalities, allowing fast ramp and stamping/casting re-use. In classic auto-speak they will count as new 2020 models.
Perhaps 600 miles range. Delivery: 1-3 months after BD.
BD tech will be impressive.
This will create the classic Osbourne-problem: "Don't want old tech, wait for new tech" => not enough demand => crisis.
However 4) to 6) will somewhat address this. This also means that the 'beer-can' cannot be the only improvement. There needs to be improvement to current 2170 cells also. Which is highly likely, given that many of the patents and production methods are form-factor independent. If so, the 3/Y demand will remain high.
Guess
- 1.5 million miles battery. (Both Dahn and Elon are notorious over-achievers...)
- 100 dollar per kWh today/soon at pack-level (prob won't say directly but may hint)
- Clear path towards short-term (3-4 years) target of pack-level cost of 80 dollar/kWh and long-term (10 years) target of 50 dollar/kWh
Emphasis on maintaining good relationships with PANA, CATL, LG and other providers, for 4 (obvious) reasons:
- Even at Tesla speed it takes time to tune, ramp and scale all the new technologies (20+ patents and numerous trade secrets). Current suppliers an tech are needed for making Teslas right now.
- Tesla cars are quite profitable with cost of around 120 dollars/kWh. Futher cost and technology improvements are important and very nice - but not strictly necessary for 'just' making around 20% profit using 2019 battery and pack tech.
- Why leave money at the table? Untill the new battery-tech has ramped, tesla car/semi/energy is production constrained.
- Why leave batteries for competitors to put in cars or energy when Tesla can turn them into profitable products?
Hope/*wild* guesses:
1) Leaked 'beer-can' cell and pack architecture around 50 percent more energy-dense as a pack due to:
- less thermal resistance leading to less cooling
- taller cells, using a bigger chunk of pack envelope previously used for modules and cooling.
- new pack design supporting:
- cast pack with cast indentations/slots for battery drop-in
- cooling pathway precast as well (We know that when Tesla goes casting, they go all in. Munro was amazed at the level of fixture details cast in the rear castings)
]The more i think about this, the more sense it makes: instead of placing batteries into an empty module/pack, why not cast the pack with with built-in piping?This off-course requires very detailed casting at a fine-grained level, which may stretch the limits of what is possible to cast, but still...: "The best part is no part, the best process is no process"(Changes in chemistry may also play a huge role, but these gains and optimizations are not restricted to the new beer-can form factor as far as i can tell)
2) 'beer-can' cells vastly cheaper to produce (low unit cost relative to ~9x more energy than current cells, Maxwell DBE, Tabless design)
Also much faster to produce, which is large part of why it is cheaper, but increased speed is important in itself for extreme scaling. How fast? My guess is twice as fast. Since battery production is an established manufacturing technique, this would, I guess, be mind-blowing.
3) 'Beer-can' cell production already ramping in small volumes with good yield rates and a clear path leading towards futher ramping and mass production.Beer-can pack production is ramping slowly, but steadily (roadrunner casting structures in Freemont ...?)
## 1) to 3) leading to 4) to 6) ##
4) Semi production start, target: 200 semis produced in Q2 2021. In-house use.
Site: Giga Austin. Factory partially ready in 2021-Q1 or tent/sprung structure. (Elon rents or buys property near Austin soon)
5) Extreme Energy ramp up, targeting ~30 Hornsdale-sized peaker installations per year from late 2021 - and then further ramping from there. Stand-alone installations, Virtual Power Plants - or both. Energy delivery agreements already formed in Germany and GB is off course integral part of this strategy.
6) New Ultra-long-range models S and X and/or plaid(ultra fast) version of same. Also cosmetic model changes aligning with 3 and Y interior. Exterior changes? Maybe Franz has done some clever changes which gives a new look, but still preserves a lot of commonalities, allowing fast ramp and stamping/casting re-use. In classic auto-speak they will count as new 2020 models.
Perhaps 600 miles range. Delivery: 1-3 months after BD.
BD tech will be impressive.
This will create the classic Osbourne-problem: "Don't want old tech, wait for new tech" => not enough demand => crisis.
However 4) to 6) will somewhat address this. This also means that the 'beer-can' cannot be the only improvement. There needs to be improvement to current 2170 cells also. Which is highly likely, given that many of the patents and production methods are form-factor independent. If so, the 3/Y demand will remain high.
Battery Day speculation
Guess
(Above: Only for some chemistries and production methods, not necessarily all.)
- 1.5 million miles battery. (Both Dahn and Elon are notorious over-achievers...)
- 100 dollar per kWh today/soon at pack-level (prob won't say directly but may hint)
- Clear path towards short-term (3-4 years) target of pack-level cost of 80 dollar/kWh and long-term (10 years) target of 50 dollar/kWh
Emphasis on maintaining good relationships with PANA, CATL, LG and other providers, for 4 (obvious) reasons:
- Even at Tesla speed it takes time to tune, ramp and scale all the new technologies (20+ patents and numerous trade secrets). Current suppliers an tech are needed for making Teslas right now.
- Tesla cars are quite profitable with cost of around 120 dollars/kWh. Futher cost and technology improvements are important and very nice - but not strictly necessary for 'just' making around 20% profit using 2019 battery and pack tech.
- Why leave money at the table? Untill the new battery-tech has ramped, tesla car/semi/energy is production constrained.
- Why leave batteries for competitors to put in cars or energy when Tesla can turn them into profitable products?
Hope/*wild* guesses:
1) Leaked 'beer-can' cell and pack architecture around 50 percent more energy-dense as a pack due to:
- less thermal resistance leading to less cooling
- taller cells, using a bigger chunk of pack envelope previously used for modules and cooling.
- new pack design supporting:
Perhaps not only fixtures/paths but the cooling pipelines themselves can be cast into the battery pack? That would be very cool! [pun intended ...
- cast pack with cast indentations/slots for battery drop-in
- cooling pathway precast as well (We know that when Tesla goes casting, they go all in. Munro was amazed at the level of fixture details cast in the rear castings)
(Changes in chemistry may also play a huge role, but these gains and optimizations are not restricted to the new beer-can form factor as far as i can tell)
2) 'beer-can' cells vastly cheaper to produce (low unit cost relative to ~9x more energy than current cells, Maxwell DBE, Tabless design)
Also much faster to produce, which is large part of why it is cheaper, but increased speed is important in itself for extreme scaling. How fast? My guess is twice as fast. Since battery production is an established manufacturing technique, this would, I guess, be mind-blowing.
3) 'Beer-can' cell production already ramping in small volumes with good yield rates and a clear path leading towards futher ramping and mass production.Beer-can pack production is ramping slowly, but steadily (roadrunner casting structures in Freemont ...?)
## 1) to 3) leading to 4) to 6) ##
4) Semi production start, target: 200 semis produced in Q2 2021. In-house use.
Site: Giga Austin. Factory partially ready in 2021-Q1 or tent/sprung structure. (Elon rents or buys property near Austin soon)
5) Extreme Energy ramp up, targeting ~30 Hornsdale-sized peaker installations per year from late 2021 - and then further ramping from there. Stand-alone installations, Virtual Power Plants - or both. Energy delivery agreements already formed in Germany and GB is off course integral part of this strategy.
6) New Ultra-long-range models S and X and/or plaid(ultra fast) version of same. Also cosmetic model changes aligning with 3 and Y interior. Exterior changes? Maybe Franz has done some clever changes which gives a new look, but still preserves a lot of commonalities, allowing fast ramp and stamping/casting re-use. In classic auto-speak they will count as new 2020 models.
Perhaps 600 miles range. Delivery: 1-3 months after BD.
BD tech will be impressive.
This will create the classic Osbourne-problem: "Don't want old tech, wait for new tech" => not enough demand => crisis.
However 4) to 6) will somewhat address this. This also means that the 'beer-can' cannot be the only improvement. There needs to be improvement to current 2170 cells also. Which is highly likely, given that many of the patents and production methods are form-factor independent. If so, the 3/Y demand will remain high.
Great speculation.
Does any mechanical minded type see a reason they couldn’t make the cell casings part of the pack? I understand building the entire pack, or substantial portion at once, could be wasteful because of faulty cells, but couldn’t there be some way to just remove the cell fillings/active material of faulty cells and then replace as needed?
‘Elon said modules were stupid because you’re just putting containers in containers. The same logic ultimately applies to cell casings inside of packs.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
The leaked pic of the supposed new cell shows it in it's own container.
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