You mean for $45 K we can swap out our packs? Tesla does not seem willing to give us a price reduction credit for our A packs. Makes you wonder, doesn't it?
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Tesla battery swap: Post announcement discussion
- Thread starter dsm363
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You mean for $45 K we can swap out our packs? Tesla does not seem willing to give us a price reduction credit for our A packs. Makes you wonder, doesn't it?
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
My understanding from what Elon said about pack swap is that you can keep the rental pack you picked up during the swap and you'll only pay for the difference in "health" between your original pack and the rental pack.
So, for example, let's say your original pack has 10k miles when you swap it and the rental pack only has 1,000 miles on it. That's a difference of 9k miles. Also, your org. pack is probably older. Tesla will have a depreciation formula for the diff in health/age of the two packs and they'll simply charge you the diff if you want to keep the rental pack.
You think they will fail as a company before they diversify their product portfolio?
Look at any big car company and count their different models, lets look at Audi: A2, A3, A4, A6, A8, R8
There you have it - at least 6 different battery formats in a current product portfolio of a car company that is not even really big.
Yes, you could make it with one battery format for A2 .. A4 and another for A6 and A8 but that would only means A3,A4 and A8 would have castrated/poor performance and range. Failed product.
Factor in time where in 5 years the car plaftform gets replaced with a newer one and in 10 years time you have 6 x 3 = 18 different battery formats to stock at every swapping station.
How would you like if Tesla stops carrying your particular battery format at your local swapping stations in 10 or 15 years? Car is still going strong it is just that the battery is made to 15 years old tech and you are not bringing in enough money anymore to stock it. Demand is also low so.. tough life, buy a new car.
Battery format != battery capacity
Battery format = width, height, length, weight, mounting points, structural strength, positional strength (different chassis have different geometry), torsional strength, connector placement, ...
Widespread battery swapping == frozen car platform
Given that Tesla is already at work on the Gen III (and has revealed they are already thinking about the generation after that), and there are NO production swappers yet, you can be assured that they are will design some flexibility in to the swap stations that are eventually deployed.
If you can build an automated system to swap this:
It's then trivial to design it to also handle this:
mgdurand
Member
jvonbokel
John VonBokel
If Tesla can make the S and X share battery dimensions (and possibly even capacities), then I'm sure they can make other platforms with the versatility to support multiple models. In fact I believe I once heard from a Tesla employee (I know, not gospel, but potentially has some validity) that the Gen III and the next Roadster could share a platform. I'm not familiar enough with Audi's lineup to comment on them specifically, but I don't think the S60 is castrated by sharing it's battery design with the P85+. The point is yes, there will be multiple formats, but there are also things they can do to keep them manageable.
I think in 10-15yrs there will be much higher capacity batteries available (which will help to reduce the demands for both Supercharging and swapping, btw). If you still like your car, then maybe you'll want to permanently swap out for a new battery after 200-300k miles. This is true of current ICE cars already. At some point it becomes more reasonable to replace the whole car than to keep putting a new OEM battery in, or fixing the outdated/inefficient A/C unit, or whatever else goes wrong. Sure there are plenty of classic cars out there, but you probably can't get parts for them from the OEM, you have to go to an aftermarket supplier at some point.
I agree with this (and I love your illustration). I also like somebody else's suggestion that firmware could limit usable capacity. It could wind up being cheaper overall for the swapping stations to stock only 85kWh batteries. S60 owners could either be software limited, or they could pay an additional fee for the added capacity for the duration of the time they keep that battery (i.e. a couple bucks a day or something). This would also be a nice feature when higher capacity batteries become available. As my S85 loses capacity over time, it'll still fill my needs for daily use, but when I go on vacation or a road trip, I'd be willing to pay a few bucks to swap out for a 100kWh and enjoy the temporary added flexibility that would give me in charging.
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There's a box in the middle of the car. Some bolts. Some hoses. A power connector. Venting to direct erif forward to the frunk area.
And they have robots.
The issue, IMO, isn't the hardware to do the swapping, but rather the inventory of batteries that need to be kept on site, charged.
I find the negativity in this sentence fragment confusing. (Not trying to nitpick.)
jvonbokel
John VonBokel
Oops, I guess that went through a couple revisions. I meant to say "I don't think the S60 is castrated". Thanks for pointing it out.
You just don't see the problem: needed stockpile of all the different batteries at every swapping location.
That's OK, I just hope (and suspect) Tesla Motors do see it and they won't embark on widespread supperswapping.
That would be a clear sign tesla motors will never be really big and will eventually fail.
That's OK, I just hope (and suspect) Tesla Motors do see it and they won't embark on widespread supperswapping.
That would be a clear sign tesla motors will never be really big and will eventually fail.
I don't see that as a problem. N owners have X, Y and Z that have the same battery. Match battery distribution to ownership. Storage logistics are a fundamental problem, but not because of different battery types. And note:
- Online reservation system could help with logistics.
- You don't have to have them everywhere, only in areas where peak demand would be insanely high relative to average weekly peak ( I live in one of those places) or where you can't meet normal demand.
- You only have to store a battery at swap 1, after that the owner is using a Tesla battery. (It would also be possible to have pooling/leasing where your battery is a Tesla battery).
- Tesla batteries would be high capacity in order to reduce the swap demand.
It's important to note that I am not suggesting that swapping would either be cheap or ideal. I'm suggesting that it would not be incredibly difficult, nor prohibitively expensive, but would be a way to deal with demand, where Supercharging would simply not work due to the number of chargers required being too high.
by that logic, Tesla shouldn't be installing the 600kWh batteries at their superchargers either. they don't even get to lend them out for profit!!!!!
there is a lot of value that Tesla could extract from a stockpile of batteries at swapping stations, and a lot cost is already sunk at the supercharger station that could be shared for a super swapper add on.
a stockpile of batteries at a supercharger is actually a good thing, its even better if they can be rented out.
As a shareholder in TSLA, I want company management to deploy capital to maximize returns. Given Tesla's situation, I think rapid expansion of car sales (while maintaining very high engineering and customer service standards) is essential to this goal. So when I see management spending time and money on swapping, I ask myself, "Self, how many more cars is this battery-swap scheme going to sell?"
At the current time, with production constrained by battery cell deliveries, and sales constrained by production, it appears to me that every battery pack deployed in a swapping station is one fewer car Tesla can sell. Even if the cell delivery constraint were gone, I think that there's substantial demand for Tesla vehicles without the swapping program. In short, while swapping may be important 5 years from now, it's an idea ahead of its time.
Unless, of course, the swapping demonstration is simply a cheap way of getting more ZEV credits from CARB.
At the current time, with production constrained by battery cell deliveries, and sales constrained by production, it appears to me that every battery pack deployed in a swapping station is one fewer car Tesla can sell. Even if the cell delivery constraint were gone, I think that there's substantial demand for Tesla vehicles without the swapping program. In short, while swapping may be important 5 years from now, it's an idea ahead of its time.
Unless, of course, the swapping demonstration is simply a cheap way of getting more ZEV credits from CARB.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I can see them building one or two stations and then saying they aren't being used enough to make it worthwhile, and that will be the end of them. Or it may be only available in the higher end models sharing the same pack architecture and not the Model E and others.
jvonbokel
John VonBokel
I like your overall perspective, but I don't know if it's ahead of it's time or actually behind it's time. The smaller the battery capacity and the longer it takes to charge, the greater the need for a swapping program. Right now I think Tesla's battery capacities and charge rates are right on the verge. For many people (like myself), swapping is probably not necessary at all, or maybe only beneficial in a very narrow set of circumstances, but for others, it is potentially key. In 5 years, I expect faster charge times and higher capacity batteries with gradually lessen the demand for swapping. I get the impression that Tesla feels like swapping is not a great/ideal solution, but it is workable, and they want to demonstrate it to allay fears of those who still imagine they'll be waiting around once a week for an hour in order to use an EV. That represents a lack of understanding on the potential customer's part, but in my year of ownership, I've talked to a lot of skeptics, and I don't think they'd be willing to take the plunge without the comfort of knowing that swapping is (at least in theory) an option.
This is what I've been thinking for quite a while (and I think they've virtually said as much), that they would build a couple stations but also continue to focus on improving Supercharging so that swapping usage would be minimal and then they could justify either shutting them down or at the very least not deploying them more widely. This would accomplish the goal of winning over skeptics, and once they experience home charging and Supercharging, they too can see that the need for swapping is not as great as they imagined. If they wind up being useful under certain circumstances (specific high traffic locations, certain holidays), then they can optimize their placement for those cases.
ChriZ
Member
I'm hoping they will allow 60kwh owners to swap out to 85kwh batteries at the cost of the same difference when ordering.
Fingers crossed.
Fingers crossed.
callmesam
Member
Why settle for an 85? I'll hold out for the larger battery announced for "in about a yeare" (100?) that is (likely) coming out with the X.
Over two months ago, Elon said battery swap stations would be coming online "in the next few months" between LA and SF. Barring some miracle, we're on track to miss yet another Elon-deadline. With not even the slightest evidence of construction being started, I'd be impressed if we have a single super swapper to show for by the end of 2014.
Source: Elon Musk: Battery Swap Facilities to Open Between San Francisco and LA | Inside EVs
Source: Elon Musk: Battery Swap Facilities to Open Between San Francisco and LA | Inside EVs
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