Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[Knightshade]

61k cumulative production through October 31 minus 3.8k this October means 57k+ in the first full year of production.

Yup, as I said, a small beat.

Escape (Kuga) PHEV.

How specifically did they "underpromise and overdeliver" on that one? Didn't they actually delay the US launch due to... battery fires in the EU launch?

Were those LG pouch cells BTW like the Bolt and other brands recalls over battery fires?

Should use Panasonic NCA, none of which ever burned

In such a systemic way as to cause a model-wide shutdown and recall? No, they never have.

large pouch is inherently more prone to thermal runaway as a form factor.

Anyone can buy the base Lightning.

The BASE base, sure.... not the contractor long range version for cheaper though.

Ford Won't Let Everyone Buy The F-150 Lightning Pro

Turns out the 300-mile F-150 Lightning Pro will be more limited than we thought.

carbuzz.com

Ford is restricting the 300-mile range F-150 Lightning Pro to commercial customers only

So you can buy the short range commercial version as a regular customer.

Want the long range, higher towing, one? Sorry- you can't have it. You'll need to pay an estimated 13k more for the consumer equivalent.

 

[JRP3]

Escape (Kuga) PHEV.

Let's not start counting hybrids when talking about BEV's.

 

[wdolson]

US: Ford Mustang Mach-E Sales Improved In October 2021

Ford Mustang Mach-E sales in October amounted to 2,848 (1.7% of Ford's total result), which is the third best monthly result so far.

insideevs.com

The rumored goal for Mach-e was 50k this year.

As of Oct 31, production was over 55k and sales were ~ 53k.

Ford just doubled EV production goals for 2024 from 282k to 600k.

For 2024 Ford will debut a Ford electric 3 row Explorer bigger and cheaper than a Model X.

Ford is building a recent history of under promising and over delivering.

GM is almost finished building its 1st Ultium GF in Ohio. About to break ground on its 2nd in Tennessee.

GM doesn't have large cell supply today better to sell $60k+ Lyriqs with 100 kW batteries and Hummers with 200 kWh batteries in the $80k-$115k price range. Silverado EV will be revealed at CES January 4-5. Tesla's cheapest car in the US is $45k. Silverado EV should at least match that.

Somehow people on this site like to take a dump on GM and Ford but give Stellantis a pass. Is it because it is French owned? And most Americans like to take shots at American owned companies?

The 800v architecture vehicles coming form Hyundai Kia are very compelling. EV6 EV9 Ioniq 5 and Ioniq 7. Long range with 350 kW charging.

Ford and GM are finally beginning to make some movement, but they were slow out of the gate. Stellantis isn't really worth talking about, the Chrysler arm is standing at the start line claiming they won when everyone else is at least part-way down the track.

Tesla's immense lead will eventually be cut as other players get their footing and it's likely that some of the competition will build compelling BEVs eventually. Who is going to falter and who will succeed is still unknown. I think Stellantis is the weakest player right now. Toyota has a tremendous size advantage, but they are almost as far behind as Stellantis with BEVs.

GM has built some experience with the Bolt and the current CEO is dedicated to electrify GM's fleet. The rest of the company is beginning to realize ICE are a dying thing too. Ford was behind GM in getting started, but the Mach-e is one of the more compelling BEVs outside of Tesla. It has drawbacks, but it also looks OK, is a size many people want, and while not an excellent track car, it is decent transportation car.

The F-150 Lightning looks like it could be a compelling truck. The Cybertruck is like the AMC Pacer, it was very popular with a segment of the population when it first came out, but the rest of the public hated the look. I think I saw somewhere that a high percentage of reservation holders for the Cybertruck have never owned a truck before. The F-150 doesn't look that different from an ICE truck, which is a selling point. They are also putting a priority on commercial buyers, which is a huge segment of the pickup truck market.

Ford and/or GM could crash and burn in the EV business. Shifting gears is like Kodak trying to shift from film to digital in the last days of film. They knew they had to do it, but they had to rebuild their entire business model and while they did emerge from bankruptcy and still exist, they are a much smaller company than they used to be.

 

[RobStark]

Ford and/or GM could crash and burn in the EV business. Shifting gears is like Kodak trying to shift from film to digital in the last days of film. They knew they had to do it, but they had to rebuild their entire business model and while they did emerge from bankruptcy and still exist, they are a much smaller company than they used to be.

Anyone can crash and burn.

Kodak is not analogous to GM or Ford. But to ExxonMobil. Kodak sold film primarily not cameras. It is like XOM trying to shift to wind and solar energy.

Barriers to entry in highly regulated heavy industry is much higher than unregulated light industry.

Musk believes Tesla will end up with 25% global automotive share. I agree. Not 50% like some TSLA hyperbulls believe.

This gives room for others to make it. It will be just as difficult for legacy OEMs to transition as it will for well capitalized startups to cross the chasm. Some will make but most won't. All the Japanese OEMs look like laggards. Nissan blew an early lead and goodwill among BEV buyers.

 

[RobStark]

Aptera is planning on a run rate of 40/day or 10k/year by end of 2022.

Aptera Tells Us More About Its New Facility - CleanTechnica

Aptera is planning to make 40 vehicles daily at some point next year, so it recently signed a lease on a new manufacturing facility that's going to give its plans room to grow into reality.

cleantechnica.com

 

[Gauss Guzzler]

Haha, Aptera.

Meanwhile General Motors has been precisely meeting their production goals of 0/day for many months and is expected to continue at this rate well into 2022.

GM Bolt and Bolt EUV production halt extended to 2022

GM will continue its Chevy Bolt EV and Bolt EUV production stoppage through the rest of the 2021 calendar year.

www.autoblog.com

I think one of these companies has an unrealistic business plan.

 

[RobStark]

GM is manufacturing Hummer EVs as we speak and will deliver next month.

 

[Knightshade]

GM is manufacturing Hummer EVs as we speak and will deliver next month.

How many will they deliver next month?

I think I heard from someone that production was hard.

 

[Gauss Guzzler]

GM is manufacturing Hummer EVs as we speak and will deliver next month.

No they are not and no they won’t. Giving a few homemade parade props to some Senators and UAW execs does not count as production and certainly doesn’t count as a “delivery”.

Do you have any idea how trivially simple it is to make a Hummer EV from scratch? Teenagers do it all the time just for fun as part of a high school or college club. YouTubers do it just for the ‘gram. Even my schoolmates built a Ford F-150 Lightning over the corse of a few weekends back in 1990 just for fun.

It’s really that easy. But Production is hard.

 

[RobStark]

No they are not and no they won’t. Giving a few homemade parade props to some Senators and UAW execs does not count as production and certainly doesn’t count as a “delivery”.

Do you have any idea how trivially simple it is to make a Hummer EV from scratch? Teenagers do it all the time just for fun as part of a high school or college club. YouTubers do it just for the ‘gram. Even my schoolmates built a Ford F-150 Lightning over the corse of a few weekends back in 1990 just for fun.

It’s really that easy. But Production is hard.

Yes they are and Yes they will.

GM isn't Rivian or Lucid. Or Youtbubbers.

GM has manufactured over 5M vehicles over the first 9 months this year despite chip and various shortages. That is GM has manufactured more vehicles this year than Tesla has over it entire existence.

 

[RobStark]

House of Muscle going Electric

Dodge Says Charger, Challenger Will Be Gone By 2024, EV Arrives Soon

There are big changes afoot at Dodge, which faces a busy next two years phasing in a new EV, a plug-in hybrid, and an all-new model.

www.motortrend.com

 

[Knightshade]

GM has manufactured over 5M vehicles over the first 9 months this year despite chip and various shortages. That is GM has manufactured more vehicles this year than Tesla has over it entire existence.

Or from another perspective-

GM has failed to build anywhere near as many vehicles as they did last year. It's entirely possible that'll be true next year too.

Tesla will have nearly doubled vehicles built since last year. And it's likely they'll see another 50-100% growth in units next year too (and ~50% CAGR every year through at least 2030).

House of Muscle going Electric

Leading the way by press release, rather than actual cars, seems a very popular tactic among legacy makers

 

[Takumi]

Or from another perspective-

GM has failed to build anywhere near as many vehicles as they did last year. It's entirely possible that'll be true next year too.

Tesla will have nearly doubled vehicles built since last year. And it's likely they'll see another 50-100% growth in units next year too (and ~50% CAGR every year through at least 2030).





Leading the way by press release, rather than actual cars, seems a very popular tactic among legacy makers

Filibusters don't work?

 

[RobStark]

Or from another perspective-

GM has failed to build anywhere near as many vehicles as they did last year. It's entirely possible that'll be true next year too.

Tesla will have nearly doubled vehicles built since last year. And it's likely they'll see another 50-100% growth in units next year too (and ~50% CAGR every year through at least 2030).





Leading the way by press release, rather than actual cars, seems a very popular tactic among legacy makers

Failing. Still, GM still multiples of Tesla production.

Taking pot shots at legacy OEMs as they transition very popular among Tesla fans.

Because as we all know the legacy OEMs can chose to make 100% of their production BEV next year with the ample battery supply.

 

[Knightshade]

Failing. Still, GM still multiples of Tesla production.

Yes, and quickly heading to reversing that.

Markets, and competition, are forward looking things.

"GM MAKES WAY MORE CARS NOBODY WILL BUY IN THE FUTURE" is not a compelling argument for anything other than why not to buy their stock.

Taking pot shots at legacy OEMs as they transition very popular among Tesla fans.

I don't really consider comparing change in production YoY as a "pot shot" so much as a look into what's coming based on objective numbers.

YMMV I guess?

Because as we all know the legacy OEMs can chose to make 100% of their production BEV next year with the ample battery supply.

...are you a parody account now?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Haha, Aptera.

Meanwhile General Motors has been precisely meeting their production goals of 0/day for many months and is expected to continue at this rate well into 2022.

GM Bolt and Bolt EUV production halt extended to 2022

GM will continue its Chevy Bolt EV and Bolt EUV production stoppage through the rest of the 2021 calendar year.

www.autoblog.com

I think one of these companies has an unrealistic business plan.

A GM spokesperson said "We have all the EV credits we need for the year. Besides, we're not Tesla, so everybody's going to wait until next year in the hope that we'll get the tax credit back. So, why rush?

 

[RobStark]

Yes, and quickly heading to reversing that.

Markets, and competition, are forward looking things.

"GM MAKES WAY MORE CARS NOBODY WILL BUY IN THE FUTURE" is not a compelling argument for anything.





I don't really consider comparing change in production YoY as a "pot shot" so much as a look into what's coming based on objective numbers.

YMMV I guess?






...are you a parody account now?

GM has no problem finding customers for their trucks in North America.

GM doesn't have problem finding customers in China. No evidence either changing in the future.

Extrapolating what is happening during a once in century pandemic and what is going on in 2% of the market forever into the future is not very compelling.

In the Roundtable thread you seem to have very sensible takes I upvoted many times. Are you acting the clown on this thread?

 

[Knightshade]

GM has no problem finding customers for their trucks in North America.

MEANWHILE BACK IN REALITY-

U.S. GM Truck Sales Down 22 Percent To 194,016 Units During Q3 2021

All four nameplates experienced a sales decrease.

gmauthority.com

GM doesn't have problem finding customers in China. No evidence either changing in the future.

IN A RELATED STORY-

GM's Q3 sales down 19.2% in China

General Motors and its Chinese joint ventures sold 623,500 vehicles in China in the third quarter this year, down 19.2 percent from the same period in 2020.

www.chinadaily.com.cn

In the Roundtable thread you seem to have very sensible takes I upvoted many times. Are you acting the clown on this thread?

One of us seems to be. I don't think it's me.

 

[RobStark]

MEANWHILE BACK IN REALITY-

U.S. GM Truck Sales Down 22 Percent To 194,016 Units During Q3 2021

All four nameplates experienced a sales decrease.

gmauthority.com

IN A RELATED STORY-

GM's Q3 sales down 19.2% in China

General Motors and its Chinese joint ventures sold 623,500 vehicles in China in the third quarter this year, down 19.2 percent from the same period in 2020.

www.chinadaily.com.cn

One of us seems to be. I don't think it's me.

Here in reality GM has no problem finding customers for their trucks in North America.

They sell every single one they make. Very profitably and without large discount. And in many cases at huge markups over MSRP.

During a PANDEMIC GM is having a trouble building trucks because of chip and other parts shortages. Pandemic required rules etc.

Same goes for China. On top of chip shortages you have "electricity" shortages in China. Because the Chinese have decided to boycott Australian coal.


Tesla has a privileged relationship with the Shanghai government which has protected them from many of the pandemic effects.

Tesla is smaller and more nimble. Being able to substitute a variety of chips and write firmware on the fly. As a result Tesla production has been the least impacted from the pandemic.

This doesn't inform us about GM prospects 5-30 years into the future.

 

[Takumi]

Here in reality GM has no problem finding customers for their trucks in North America.

They sell every single one they make. Very profitably and without large discount. And in many cases at huge markups over MSRP.

During a PANDEMIC GM is having a trouble building trucks because of chip and other parts shortages. Pandemic required rules etc.

Same goes for China. On top of chip shortages you have "electricity" shortages in China. Because the Chinese have decided to boycott Australian coal.


Tesla has a privileged relationship with the Shanghai government which has protected them from many of the pandemic effects.

Tesla is smaller and more nimble. Being able to substitute a variety of chips and write firmware on the fly. As a result Tesla production has been the least impacted from the pandemic.

This doesn't inform us about GM prospects 5-30 years into the future.

You sure that's GM or their dealers? Is GM getting that huge markup profit? Are they making a profit because of dealer markups or is it because they stopped offering discounts?

I would really like to know what GM's cut is on that MSRP markup.