Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[scaesare]

Enjoyed your post, but this claim is not strictly true.

Mercedes/Daimler/Smart Fortwo was designed with an electric motor between the rear wheels and battery under the floor from the original design pre-2008 but shipped with a gas motor at the time due to cost/practicality of technology of that age.

Daimler contracted Tesla to build the components to put in the 2011 Smart Electric drive, Tesla had no design monopoly on this layout, and wasn't even first to do so.

The new 2018 Smart ED many years later has the same basic layout as 2011 but is based on an entirely new vehicle architecture, see this quaint 2011 Smart Electric video review from CNET.

I enjoyed your post, but this claim is not strictly true.

The Smart Car design was actually initiated by Tesla. As @Brando mentioned, not only did Tesla acquire a SmartCar ahead of the battery supply meeting with Daimler (surprising them), but they had actually already re-engineered it to be an electric car prototype, which really surprised them. Start at about about 20 mins in here:

Now while it wasn't the final design (the original had a roadster drivetrain), if you listen they mention that even for the prototype they packaged it so that the components would not intrude on passenger or cargo volume. I've seen other discussions and I understand the packaging with floor-mounted batteries & rear drivetrain was present in that initial Tesla-designed prototype.

 

[Brando]

OK, here is the latest research I found on YouTube.

Lithium Battery Research, Jeff Dahn, Dalhousie/Tesla Motors

This talk is from March 2017. The title is "Surprising Chemistry in Li-Ion Cells" and Dahn talks about gas formation and cycle life in lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC), and related types.

 

[JRP3]

This talk is from March 2017. The title is "Surprising Chemistry in Li-Ion Cells" and Dahn talks about gas formation and cycle life in lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC), and related types.

Not sure what this almost year old talk has to do with the thread.

 

[Brando]

Not sure what this almost year old talk has to do with the thread.

competition - battery technology mentioned as possible competitive advantage - investments, R&D, developments, history of Tesla evolution, etc...

sorry for adding to meandering off topic posts - 88 page long thread - amazing.

 

[RobStark]

When GM went bankrupt in 2009, they pulled out of NUMMI leaving Toyota with the plant. It was the only unionized Toyota plant in the world and Toyota wanted to simplify their HR so they decided to close the plant.

Toyota union to demand over ¥3,000 pay hike | The Japan Times

 

[wdolson]

Still no theoretical models of Li-Ion battery hense trial and error development. Jeff Dahn explains in his video above.
I think I read, Li-Ion can improve 3x or 4x current levels. Perhaps solid state (they are also Lithium, right??) will/is a big jump. Government lousy at building things - great at funding research, which is all they should do.

Can you document (I'll try some searching) R&D money on batteries? Historically battery development has been very very slow - well over 100 years, right? Have we seen much in the last 20? just "refinement" of Li?

I didn't know VC did any research spending. I thought only product/business model investing. Panasonic needed Tesla to build the GigaFactory. Why isn't panasonic building battery factories?? a lot I don't understand
Any VCs in the Rocket business? I'd call them more like angel investors gambling.

I only have a minute, but here is a link to the Nova episode:

Toyota union to demand over ¥3,000 pay hike | The Japan Times

I must have misremembered the story. I think it may have been their only UAW plant at the time. The UAW may have been successful in organizing their American plants since. This was almost 10 years ago.

In any case, Toyota didn't want to keep the plant.

 

[SmartElectric]

The Smart Car design was actually initiated by Tesla. Tesla acquire a SmartCar ahead of the battery supply meeting with Daimler (surprising them), but they had actually already re-engineered it to be an electric car prototype

Sir, we seem to be at odds. I continue to be correct.

The original design of the Smart was as a battery electric vehicle with pack low in the chassis. When Smart redesigned the chassis for the 451 iteration, they specifically made a space for gas tank and battery pack under the passenger compartment.

The smart: A Brief History

 

[scaesare]

Sir, we seem to be at odds. I continue to be correct.

The original design of the Smart was as a battery electric vehicle with pack low in the chassis. When Smart redesigned the chassis for the 451 iteration, they specifically made a space for gas tank and battery pack under the passenger compartment.

The smart: A Brief History

I'm afraid I must point out that you seem to be revising history.

Firstly you didn't say "pack low in the chassis", rather you said:

designed with an electric motor between the rear wheels and battery under the floor...

Secondarily that article states:

...a front-mounted electric motor powered by batteries stored in the rear of the vehicle...

As that article doesn't speak to the 451 as far as I can tell, it doesn't seem to support your assertion.

 

[JRP3]

. The first sketches were for a two-seater with a front-mounted electric motor powered by batteries stored in the rear of the vehicle.

I didn't see a reference to an under floor pack.

Beat me to it

 

[scaesare]

However, as much as I like coming out on top in a debate, in the interests of accuracy, I found this Wired article about the iteration prior to Tesla's involvement which says:

The battery is housed at the bottom of the car so that tight interior space isn't compromised further.

I concede to the Gentleman who's namesake is the subject matter at hand...

 

[alloverx]

Toyota are also looking at Solid state batteries, but they are conservative with changes so even if they have it ready to go, it will be a cautious launch.

 

[RobStark]

Six EVs headed to Nissan, Infiniti

The EV plan reflects only the next five years. Nissan CEO Hiroto Saikawa separately last month revealed a longer range plan in which, starting in 2021, every new vehicle coming out of Infiniti will be either an EV or an e-Power(small ICE acting as a generator for a midsize battery pack, no plug) system vehicle (hybrid).

 

[hiroshiy]

Six EVs headed to Nissan, Infiniti

The EV plan reflects only the next five years. Nissan CEO Hiroto Saikawa separately last month revealed a longer range plan in which, starting in 2021, every new vehicle coming out of Infiniti will be either an EV or an e-Power(small ICE acting as a generator for a midsize battery pack, no plug) system vehicle (hybrid).

Just FYI, Nissan e-Power (series hybrid) on the first Nissan Note compact car was 1.5kWh, about twice as *big* as Prius Hybrid. I have seen it a few times, I thought the engine is loud while driving slow because it chooses higher rev to charge the battery for efficiency.

 

[RobStark]

Just FYI, Nissan e-Power (series hybrid) on the first Nissan Note compact car was 1.5kWh, about twice as *big* as Prius Hybrid. I have seen it a few times, I thought the engine is loud while driving slow because it chooses higher rev to charge the battery for efficiency.

The Japanese Nissan Note is meant as a "Tokyo" car.

Nissan knows there will need to be more power for the American market. And more performance AND refinement for the Infiniti brand. Infiniti's will be all around cars not urban dwellers.

 

[SebastianR]

Short point of reflection: we are almost 4 years and 88 pages into this thread and since it started, there is not a SINGLE actual competitor to either the classic Roadster, the Model S, the Model X and the Model 3 (if you agree that the Bolt is not competing with the Model 3) available for purchase in any of the markets world wide (happy to be corrected).

It's quite amazing, I must say.

PS: I know of the Mercedes SLS electric drive, the R8 eTron and a few big BYD cars, I would not call either of them a direct/viable competitor to Tesla...

 

[RobStark]

Short point of reflection: we are almost 4 years and 88 pages into this thread and since it started, there is not a SINGLE actual competitor to either the classic Roadster, the Model S, the Model X and the Model 3 (if you agree that the Bolt is not competing with the Model 3) available for purchase in any of the markets world wide (happy to be corrected).

It's quite amazing, I must say.

PS: I know of the Mercedes SLS electric drive, the R8 eTron and a few big BYD cars, I would not call either of them a direct/viable competitor to Tesla...

The coming I-Pace is a Model Y with luxury interior at twice the price.

The Mission E might be a competitor to Model S at the end of this year if it comes reasonably equipped at $85k. If every dealer's cheapest Mission E is $160k with various packages then not so much.

 

[mikevbf]

To state the obvious, the reason there is no BEV competition is first because of a lack of supercharger equivalent infrastructure and second because a lack of giga factory scale battery factories to support mass production on the scale the model 3 plans to be.

My question which strikes at the heart of the assumption built into this thread's title is why are there not any car companies willing to partner with Tesla on their supercharger network? Tesla's goal is not to dominate, it is to transition us toward more sustainable transportation and energy alternatives. What better way to speed this transition than to partner with companies that produce cars like the Bolt or I-Pace, Mission E etc? My suspicion is it has much less to do with Tesla than it does with the other car companies.

 

[RobStark]

What better way to speed this transition than to partner with companies that produce cars like the Bolt or I-Pace, Mission E etc? My suspicion is it has much less to do with Tesla than it does with the other car companies.

Porsche plan's their 800v systems and fast chargers to be a competitive advantage.

So far they only have one station at USA headquarters and one in Germany at global headquarters.

But they plan 800v fast chargers between major cities where large concentration of Porsche owners live and rely on public chargers in Europe for the rest and on Electrify America in the USA. Northern Europe is starting to look Ok for public fast chargers. After VW Group spends $2B in the USA( $800M of that in California) that network will look similar to what Tesla has today. A few more stations but less charge points per station.

I suppose they all don't want to acknowledge the superiority of Tesla by sending their customers to Tesla branded stations.

 

[scaesare]

To state the obvious, the reason there is no BEV competition is first because of a lack of supercharger equivalent infrastructure and second because a lack of giga factory scale battery factories to support mass production on the scale the model 3 plans to be.

My question which strikes at the heart of the assumption built into this thread's title is why are there not any car companies willing to partner with Tesla on their supercharger network? Tesla's goal is not to dominate, it is to transition us toward more sustainable transportation and energy alternatives. What better way to speed this transition than to partner with companies that produce cars like the Bolt or I-Pace, Mission E etc? My suspicion is it has much less to do with Tesla than it does with the other car companies.

Inability to kill the sacred cow.

 

[SebastianR]

The coming I-Pace is a Model Y with luxury interior at twice the price.

The Mission E might be a competitor to Model S at the end of this year if it comes reasonably equipped at $85k. If every dealer's cheapest Mission E is $160k with various packages then not so much.

You rightly pointed to it: "coming" - that's my whole point: for many years and 88 pages we have debated about "coming" vehicles. There is NO vehicle that's actually existing to compete with Tesla. Not a single one. Despite all the "Tesla Killer" arguments, articles and announcements.

I'm quite amazed that Tesla is allowed to freely steal marketshare from everyone around and grow like crazy in a market otherwise characterised by being saturated and stale...

Porsche plan's their 800v systems and fast chargers to be a competitive advantage.

So far they only have one station at USA headquarters and one in Germany at global headquarters.

Porsche has a massive issue: they admitted that they only plan to produce 20k Mission-E per year. And they lag years behind Tesla with building their charging network. Let's just take 2017 - they would need to invest 5x the amount per car sold into their charging network just to keep up with Tesla on Model S & X (Tesla sold 100k Model S/X). Now Tesla expands into Model 3 - how will Porsche ever get a comparable charing network? And how will Porsche drivers ever be willing to compromise on ability to charge over a Tesla?

The beauty about the Super Charger network is, that it can now spread into thinly used territories. Yes, you will feel congestion in the frequented places, but there are more and more places that will be at the edges of the network. That's where true superiority of the network will show.

Don't get me wrong: if Porsche makes a fantastic race & track car, they will sure sell a quite a few. But their bread and butter is now Macan & Cayenne - that's affluent soccer moms that want to go places, too. From what it says about Mission E it will not be a "track only" car like the GT3 - so how on earth are they planning to do this?!?