Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[ammulder]

The answer for that is PHEVs. Better to use each 80 kWh to make 4 PHEV-50s that each drive 9-10k miles/year on electricity than a single long range BEV that drives 12-13k. Getting 3x as many electric miles from each 80 kWh "greatly accelerates the transition". Not a popular message here, of course.

The problem is that a PHEV solution depends on all the owners to behave well and plug in and limit themselves to electric range whenever possible and all that. Doesn’t seem to be the case in practice from what we know, other than small groups of enthusiasts.

A BEV solution only requires the manufacturers to behave well. The owners have no choice but to drive electric. Much easier to assure.

So yes, I’d rather have the actual 12-13k miles than the theoretical 3x that doesn’t come to fruition while also prolonging the ICE age.

 

[mongo]

The GM Bolt recall has expanded to all 2017-2022 model years.
GM extends recall to cover all Chevy Bolts due to fire risk
Total cost around $1.8 billion.

 

[RobStark]

The GM Bolt recall has expanded to all 2017-2022 model years.
GM extends recall to cover all Chevy Bolts due to fire risk
Total cost around $1.8 billion.

Each cell may have two manufacturing defects — a torn anode tab and folded separator.

GM is demanding LG cover the cost.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Each cell may have two manufacturing defects — a torn anode tab and folded separator.

GM is demanding LG cover the cost.

This sucks. Bad for GM, bad for LG and bad for EVs in general. Good for LFP, at least.

Speaking of fires, this IIHS report for 2016-18 model years shows Tesla S/X with significantly higher non-crash fire claims frequency and severity than average ICE. I tried to find a later report, but IIHS site is hard to navigate and their Search function doesn't work properly, at least with my browser.

 

[MP3Mike]

This sucks. Bad for GM, bad for LG and bad for EVs in general. Good for LFP, at least.

Speaking of fires, this IIHS report for 2016-18 model years shows Tesla S/X with significantly higher non-crash fire claims frequency and severity than average ICE. I tried to find a later report, but IIHS site is hard to navigate and their Search function doesn't work properly, at least with my browser.

Severity is of course going to be higher because Tesla vehicles, especially in those years, were very expensive compared to the average ICE vehicle.

I wonder why the Model X was much more frequent, rated 192 vs 140, than the Model S. (Considering they use the same battery, etc.) I suspect it it because of the smaller sample size.

What is interesting is the top "worst" vehicle in each category:

• Passenger cars: Dodge Charger HEMI
• SUVs: Jeep Renegade
• Pickups: Ram 3500 crew cab LWB 4WD

All three owned by Stellantis. (In fact 14 of the top 30 are theirs, so ~47% of the vehicles most likely to catch fire are made by one group.)

 

[MP3Mike]

This sucks. Bad for GM, bad for LG and bad for EVs in general.

So now we have LG batteries made in three different factories, all in different countries suffering from the same defects. It seems to be a systemic problem in LG cell production. What do you think this means for Ford and VW, both of which use LG cells that look similar to the ones Chevy and Hyundai used.

Who else uses similar cells made by LG?

 

[RobStark]

The American startups use cylindrical cells. Rivian uses Samsung and Lucid uses LG. I am not sure of suppliers for the rest.

BMW uses Samsung.

All the other non-Chinese/Japanese companies use LG or clones from SKI.

SKI just paid LG $1.78B to settle lawsuit SKI stole their tech.

Hyundai and VW used a mix of LG, Samsung, and SKI.

Ford is transitioning from LG to SKI.

VW is doing the same in North America. VW in Europe is transitioning to European startups like North Volt, and the Chinese battery makers? and maybe SKI?

Stellantis is transitioning away from direct LG purchases to a JV with French oil-solar/wind company TotalEnergies. They said they are open to other JVs with other battery makers.

Renault uses LG. They are developing a partnership with Nissan supplier Chinese company AESC and French battery startup Verkor.

 

[petit_bateau]

So now we have LG batteries made in three different factories, all in different countries suffering from the same defects. It seems to be a systemic problem in LG cell production. What do you think this means for Ford and VW, both of which use LG cells that look similar to the ones Chevy and Hyundai used.

Who else uses similar cells made by LG?

I'm not sure of what all the LG cells are, but here is what I figured out re who uses LG. If anyone can give greater detail that would be great.

https://imgur.com/f2Q91L0

 

[ammulder]

I'm not sure of what all the LG cells are, but here is what I figured out re who uses LG. If anyone can give greater detail that would be great.

Is that to scale? Eyeballing it, LG is the largest battery maker, Panasonic and CATL roughly equal in second, the rest of the market combined about the same as one of those?

For some reason I had the impression that Tesla bought way more cells from CATL than LG but that doesn’t seem to be the case either.

This graphic is definitely challenging my assumptions, thanks.

 

[petit_bateau]

Is that to scale? Eyeballing it, LG is the largest battery maker, Panasonic and CATL roughly equal in second, the rest of the market combined about the same as one of those?

For some reason I had the impression that Tesla bought way more cells from CATL than LG but that doesn’t seem to be the case either.

This graphic is definitely challenging my assumptions, thanks.

Yes, that is to scale in GWh terms with LG at 34.4 and CATL at 24.6 and Panasonic at 26.5 etc.

I expect things will change as Tesla's use of LFP packs ramps, and also as 4680 begins.

I will try to do this again next year, but getting hold of enough scraps of information to do it reliably is difficult. I was able to do 2019 and 2020, but we shall see if it will be possible again.

 

[RobStark]

Exclusive: Ford Mustang Mach-E Production Capacity Could Be 175,000 Vehicles A Year! (Maybe) - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! LG Energy Solution is now producing ~5000 Ford Mustang Mach-E battery modules a day. That’s enough for 500 battery packs a day (there are 10 modules in a pack). So? What’s the news here? ... [continued]

cleantechnica.com

 

[Doggydogworld]

Exclusive: Ford Mustang Mach-E Production Capacity Could Be 175,000 Vehicles A Year! (Maybe) - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! LG Energy Solution is now producing ~5000 Ford Mustang Mach-E battery modules a day. That’s enough for 500 battery packs a day (there are 10 modules in a pack). So? What’s the news here? ... [continued]

cleantechnica.com

Dubious, IMHO. Meanwhile Reuters says Ford only plans to build 15k F-150 Lightnings next year, ramping to 80k in 2024. Original plan was only 40k in 2024!

 

[ggies07]

I think it's time to leave this thread. After years of following it, it all comes down to....what's the point? There's no competition. And there never will be. There will be players, but not at the competitive level. Goodbye.

 

[ohmman]

After years of following it, it all comes down to....what's the point? There's no competition. And there never will be. There will be players, but not at the competitive level.

We should all hope you're wrong. If that indeed is the case, it's the worst outcome for Tesla, their potential competitors, the environment, transportation, and consumers. That's not to say I don't understand your sentiment.

 

[MC3OZ]

I view BYD as a competitor;-

BYD to launch three sub-$35K EVs in Australia soon - carsales.com.au

Aussie importer expects affordable electric hatch, SUV and van to stimulate huge spike in EV sales

www.carsales.com.au

 

[Doggydogworld]

I view BYD as a competitor;-

BYD to launch three sub-$35K EVs in Australia soon - carsales.com.au

Aussie importer expects affordable electric hatch, SUV and van to stimulate huge spike in EV sales

www.carsales.com.au

Yeah, BYD got crushed by the June 2019 subsidy cuts, but has come back strong lately. They aren't a global threat, though.

VW Group sold more EVs that Tesla in Q2 -- 209k vs. 201k. They still lag by 42k YTD. And VW is 50% (cuss word alert) PHEVs.

Hyundai/Kia has some good designs, but I don't see them challenging Tesla's volumes.

 

[MC3OZ]

Yeah, BYD got crushed by the June 2019 subsidy cuts, but has come back strong lately. They aren't a global threat, though.

VW Group sold more EVs that Tesla in Q2 -- 209k vs. 201k. They still lag by 42k YTD. And VW is 50% (cuss word alert) PHEVs.

Hyundai/Kia has some good designs, but I don't see them challenging Tesla's volumes.

The BYD blade battery is a good product...

Their EVs are at good price points, and I think they can scale to good volumes....

Their cars were ugly, but are improving rapidly...

Perhaps not challenging Tesla but a solid 2nd or 3rd place... maybe it is between BYD and VW for 2nd.,

I still see Tesla scaling to 20 Million EVs by 2030, but when I tried to guess likely car volumes, factory locations, etc this is no walk in the park, it was hard to make it work, even with generous assumptions.

I still think we can get 70 Million produced worldwide by 2030:-

• Tesla - 20 Million
• China - 30 Million, BYD 10-15 Million.
• Others - 20 Million - VW - 8-10 Million

It is hard to guess that far into the future, with things changing rapidly...

 

[30seconds]

Yeah, BYD got crushed by the June 2019 subsidy cuts, but has come back strong lately. They aren't a global threat, though.

VW Group sold more EVs that Tesla in Q2 -- 209k vs. 201k. They still lag by 42k YTD. And VW is 50% (cuss word alert) PHEVs.

Hyundai/Kia has some good designs, but I don't see them challenging Tesla's volumes.

Do you have the breakdown of the VW Group vehicles? Last time I looked they were about half to a quarter of that volume (BEV only)

 

[Doggydogworld]

Do you have the breakdown of the VW Group vehicles? Last time I looked they were about half to a quarter of that volume (BEV only)

I get my numbers from their press releases, like this one for Q2. It says 60k BEVs in Q1 (I think it was actually something like 59.6) and 111k in Q2 for 171k in the first half. PHEVs were also 171k in the first half (73k Q1 and 98k Q2). You have to make sure you're looking at a VW Group release, their VW brand press releases look the same but have lower numbers.

Jose Pontes publishes quarterly data by model, brand and OEM, formerly on his blog but now in CleanTechnica articles. He uses registration data and estimates, so his numbers are differ by a few percent.

 

[Phil Seastrand]

I think it's time to leave this thread. After years of following it, it all comes down to....what's the point? There's no competition. And there never will be. There will be players, but not at the competitive level. Goodbye.

Funny, I was just thinking this as I opened the thread.