Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[Doggydogworld]

Super credits system for ZLEV ends this year. Each ZLEV is worth 1.33 vehicles. (was 1.67 in 2021 and 2 in 2020).
So, 2023 will still be more difficult than 2022.

Yes, but Super Credits were capped. They didn't apply to every EV sold. I can't quote the exact details any more, but the effect was limited to something like 7.5g of fleet CO2 benefit spread over three years (so 2.5g each year or 7.5g one year when you really need help and 0 the other two, etc.).

The bigger effect was the 5% exclusion -- OEMs could exclude the highest-emitting 5% of their fleet from the calculation. That went away last year, I think (again don't quote me). Changes this year and next are basically rounding errors. Very roughly speaking OEMs had to increase EVs from a few percent of the fleet in 2018 to 20% in 2021. Going from there to 22% or whatever over the next few years is just a minor tweak.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Yes, but Super Credits were capped. They didn't apply to every EV sold. I can't quote the exact details any more, but the effect was limited to something like 7.5g of fleet CO2 benefit spread over three years (so 2.5g each year or 7.5g one year when you really need help and 0 the other two, etc.).

The bigger effect was the 5% exclusion -- OEMs could exclude the highest-emitting 5% of their fleet from the calculation. That went away last year, I think (again don't quote me). Changes this year and next are basically rounding errors. Very roughly speaking OEMs had to increase EVs from a few percent of the fleet in 2018 to 20% in 2021. Going from there to 22% or whatever over the next few years is just a minor tweak.

Good point about the California ZEV requirements. How much of Toyota's sales decline this year has to do with Toyota not having enough ZEV credits to be able to sell more cars in the 14 states that follow CARB without incurring ZEV penalties? The most recent data from CARB (back in 2020) showed Toyota having a credit balance of 187k, but they were using up over 22k per year. With requirements increasing annually (7% in 2019, 9.5% in 2020, 12% in 2021, 14.5% in 2022, and 17% in 2023: View Document - California Code of Regulations), they'll probably run out of credit by 2024 unless they find some way to market and sell more BEV's (which they're loathe to do) VERY QUICKLY!

 

[Doggydogworld]

Good point about the California ZEV requirements. How much of Toyota's sales decline this year has to do with Toyota not having enough ZEV credits to be able to sell more cars in the 14 states that follow CARB without incurring ZEV penalties? The most recent data from CARB (back in 2020) showed Toyota having a credit balance of 187k, but they were using up over 22k per year. With requirements increasing annually (7% in 2019, 9.5% in 2020, 12% in 2021, 14.5% in 2022, and 17% in 2023: View Document - California Code of Regulations), they'll probably run out of credit by 2024 unless they find some way to market and sell more BEV's (which they're loathe to do) VERY QUICKLY!

Just to be clear, I responded to a comment about the EU 95g regulations, which included Super Credits for EVs and other stuff like .... umm.... Better refrigerants, maybe? Anyway, it's similar to CA ZEV in some ways, but on a different continent.

As for Toyota, I think they get CA ZEV credits for Prius Prime and now RAV4 Prime. They can sell a lot of Primes if needed, and even expand the lineup to Camry, Corolla, etc. I would have killed for a Sienna Prime back in the day.

 

[RobStark]

As for Toyota, I think they get CA ZEV credits for Prius Prime and now RAV4 Prime. They can sell a lot of Primes if needed, and even expand the lineup to Camry, Corolla, etc. I would have killed for a Sienna Prime back in the day.

The wait list for RAV4 Prime is ~2 years in USA and ~3 years in Canada.

Most dealers seem to be asking for ~$10k over MSRP for cancelled orders they then sell out of dealer stock. Some are asking $5k others $15k.

Toyota PR people say they can't get any more cells to increase production of Primes. When they have enough cells the scuttlebutt is they plan to offer a Highlander Prime next.

 

[Discoducky]

Configure one today! Starting at
$28,195 for 247 miles of range. I'm all for this car doing well, but I have my doubts...

GM Authority: 2023 Chevy Bolt EUV Configurator Live.

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2022/08/2023-chevy-bolt-euv-configurator-live/

 

[RobStark]

Configure one today! Starting at
$28,195 for 247 miles of range. I'm all for this car doing well, but I have my doubts...

GM Authority: 2023 Chevy Bolt EUV Configurator Live.

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2022/08/2023-chevy-bolt-euv-configurator-live/

This is a compliance vehicle. Designed to sell ~25k units per year in the US. Plus ~10k units RoW. It is not Ultium. It will be discontinued in the not too distant future.

GMs future bread and butter volume non-truck is the Equinox EV.

Ultium compact CUV for ~$30k launching Summer/Fall 2023.

 

[Gauss Guzzler]

This is a compliance vehicle. Designed to sell ~25k units per year in the US. Plus ~10k units RoW. It is not Ultium. It will be discontinued in the not too distant future.

Yeah but if you can buy it for $20K now and then sell it in a few years with a $4K rebate, it could prove to be an extremely affordable option.

But how does one actually "buy" a Chevrolet? The only other time I've bought a "new" car was about 20 years ago and it was exactly like Tesla, I just clicked "add to cart", "checkout", and then it arrived in my driveway a couple of months later. I honestly don't even know if it's possible to order a Chevrolet or who to order it from? Would you have to go into some dealership and sign up for their top-tier junkmail service and then agree to pay for a *sugar*-ton of undercoating and stuff? Do they even accept orders? Or do they only sell what's on the lot that day?

 

[wdolson]

Yeah but if you can buy it for $20K now and then sell it in a few years with a $4K rebate, it could prove to be an extremely affordable option.

But how does one actually "buy" a Chevrolet? The only other time I've bought a "new" car was about 20 years ago and it was exactly like Tesla, I just clicked "add to cart", "checkout", and then it arrived in my driveway a couple of months later. I honestly don't even know if it's possible to order a Chevrolet or who to order it from? Would you have to go into some dealership and sign up for their top-tier junkmail service and then agree to pay for a *sugar*-ton of undercoating and stuff? Do they even accept orders? Or do they only sell what's on the lot that day?

My father was a GM guy for most of his life and he always ordered cars. When I bought my Buick I did what he did. I asked for the fleet manager. You meet with them, discuss the options you want, put down a deposit and wait for the car. It's a flat price, no negotiation.

My father's last car was a Ford Fusion and I believe he ordered that too.

 

[RobStark]

Yeah but if you can buy it for $20K now and then sell it in a few years with a $4K rebate, it could prove to be an extremely affordable option.

But how does one actually "buy" a Chevrolet? The only other time I've bought a "new" car was about 20 years ago and it was exactly like Tesla, I just clicked "add to cart", "checkout", and then it arrived in my driveway a couple of months later. I honestly don't even know if it's possible to order a Chevrolet or who to order it from? Would you have to go into some dealership and sign up for their top-tier junkmail service and then agree to pay for a *sugar*-ton of undercoating and stuff? Do they even accept orders? Or do they only sell what's on the lot that day?

If you have Costco go through the Costco buying service.

If not it is well worth the $60 annual membership.

Fixed negotiated price. Right now it is probably MSRP. No harassing treatment at the dealer.

Simple dimple. You will get a call from Costco asking about your experience. If everything went great you say so and they say glad everything went great and call ends. If you have something to complain about then you can cut lose.

Some dealers do offer home delivery.

Don't know if the Costco affiliated Chevrolet dealer in your area does.

 

[RobStark]

 

[Gauss Guzzler]

Semiconductors? Is that what the kids at GM are calling batteries these days?

 

[RobStark]

This is going to be key to understanding who qualifies for the full Federal credit and who does not.

 

[mongo]

From main:

MSN

 

[Singuy]

This is going to be key to understanding who qualifies for the full Federal credit and who does not.

View attachment 839486

I feel like it's missing a few significant countries like Australia.

 

[RobStark]

I feel like it's missing a few significant countries like Australia.

Australia is important for mining not processing .

 

[mongo]

Australia is important for mining not processing .

Which is extraction?

the percentage of the value of the applicable critical minerals (as defined in section 45X(c)(6)) contained in such battery that were—
"(i) extracted or processed—
(I) in the United States, or
(II) in any country with which the United States has a free trade agreement in effect, or

(ii) recycled in North America,

 

[RobStark]

Which is extraction?

the percentage of the value of the applicable critical minerals (as defined in section 45X(c)(6)) contained in such battery that were—
"(i) extracted or processed—
(I) in the United States, or
(II) in any country with which the United States has a free trade agreement in effect, or

(ii) recycled in North America,

yes extraction.

Minerals extracted in Australia and processed in China causes the EV to lose $3,750 of the Federal credit.

EV needs to be assembled in US, Canada or Mexico to qualify.

In 2023 EV needs to have 40% minerals extracted and processed in Canada, Mexico, US, Australia, Chile or other countries that have FTA with USA but currently don't have EV mineral mines or EV mineral processing facilities. The percentage rises in subsequent years. If not EV loses $3,750 of credit.

Cells have to be manufactured in US, Canada or Mexico. 40% of other parts in the battery pack have to be manufactured in US, Canada or Mexico. The percentage rises after 2023. Battery pack has to be assembled in US, Canada or Mexico. If not EV loses $3,750 of Federal Credit.

That is my understanding. There might be changes to the final Bill Biden signs. I have read 30% of EV models currently sold in America qualify for the full credit in 2023. And ZERO Percent qualify in 2024 as supply chains are currently constructed using plain language definitions in the IRA. The Dept of the Treasury might issue convoluted legalese definitions to increase the number of qualifying EVs.

 

[mongo]

Minerals extracted in Australia and processed in China causes the EV to lose $3,750 of the Federal credit.

I'm reading it differently

(i) extracted OR processed—
(II) in any country with which the United States has a free trade agreement in effect,

not extracted AND processed. So mined in Australia and processed in China would qualify for now.
However, mined and processed in China would not (unless Redwood 'recycles' it, which is just duplicate processing). Even then, they are talking battery content, not cells, so it may include pack structure.

Cells have to be manufactured in US, Canada or Mexico. 40% of other parts in the battery pack have to be manufactured in US, Canada or Mexico. The percentage rises after 2023. Battery pack has to be assembled in US, Canada or Mexico. If not EV loses $3,750 of Federal Credit.

Why the cell localization? I only see final vehicle assembly in NA.
Second part is battery pack content:
‘(A) IN GENERAL.—The requirement described in this subparagraph with respect to a vehicle is that, with respect to the battery from which the electric motor of such vehicle draws electricity, the percentage of the value of the components contained in such battery that were manufactured or assembled in North America is equal to or greater than the applicable percentage (as certified by the qualified manufacturer, in such form or manner as prescribed by the Secretary).

Imported cells assembled in the US would appear to qualify, though I'm thinking this will need more clarification.

 

[RobStark]

I'm reading it differently

(i) extracted OR processed—
(II) in any country with which the United States has a free trade agreement in effect,

not extracted AND processed. So mined in Australia and processed in China would qualify for now.
However, mined and processed in China would not (unless Redwood 'recycles' it, which is just duplicate processing). Even then, they are talking battery content, not cells, so it may include pack structure.



Why the cell localization? I only see final vehicle assembly in NA.
Second part is battery pack content:
‘(A) IN GENERAL.—The requirement described in this subparagraph with respect to a vehicle is that, with respect to the battery from which the electric motor of such vehicle draws electricity, the percentage of the value of the components contained in such battery that were manufactured or assembled in North America is equal to or greater than the applicable percentage (as certified by the qualified manufacturer, in such form or manner as prescribed by the Secretary).

Imported cells assembled in the US would appear to qualify, though I'm thinking this will need more clarification.

I very much doubt Australian minerals processed in China will qualify.

Manchin's whole point is to exclude China from the supply chain of EVs on American roads.

We shall see.

 

[Discoducky]

View attachment 839270

I assume that GM will include the partner vehicles in this figure (aka WuLing models).

So 1.99 Million WuLing models + 0.01 Million every other brands/models GM makes or has a hand in.