Tesla confirms HW3 computer in production, FSD demo on April 22nd [Rescheduled]

[PoitNarf]

What are the odds that at the end of the FSD event, Tesla will announce that a FSD car just completed the autonomous coast to coast drive? Would be an awesome way to shake up the competition.

That would be very cool but I put the odds of this happening at maybe .001%. I'm still not convinced they will be able to do a coast to coast FSD trip at all this year. The capabilities they show off at the event on the 19th will need to be jaw dropping level impressive for me to change my mind.

 

[shifteru]

If you haven't taken delivery yet, you can use the View Spec link for your pending order. If you have taken delivery, you might be able to use the API or a 3rd party site to view your option codes. For S & X, the correct option codes are returned but we've seen the Model 3 doesn't always report the correct codes. We've seen RENA on European cars, for example.


In less than 5 hours. We were originally scheduled for delivery twice last week but there were logistical issues. The online configuration shows APH4 which is HW3. We hope to have pictures or video of any differences later today or tomorrow.

I've seen this mentioned elsewhere too, the idea of a view spec link pre-delivery. I haven't taken delivery yet (scheduled this weekend) on my Model 3, but I do know it was manufactured in late March. I doubt I'll have HW3, but curious to check and can't find this view spec option anywhere. I see view design details, but that doesn't have any option codes. Is that link only available for S or X or am I missing it?

 

[MorrisonHiker]

I've seen this mentioned elsewhere too, the idea of a view spec link pre-delivery. I haven't taken delivery yet (scheduled this weekend) on my Model 3, but I do know it was manufactured in late March. I doubt I'll have HW3, but curious to check and can't find this view spec option anywhere. I see view design details, but that doesn't have any option codes. Is that link only available for S or X or am I missing it?

Sorry, View Spec could be unique for S & X. They still haven't updated the S & X pages to be the same as the Model 3. We haven't had an open Model 3 order for a few months so I can't remember how it displays. Hopefully someone with an open order can chime in.

 

[Celledral]

Oh snap! Time to delay my Delivery....again.

 

[Troy]

This is not a surprise. After HW3 code was discovered on Tesla's website, an announcement was expected. I actually predicted this before the code was discovered. Here is my prediction from 14 March. Also, see my message here from 1st March 2019.

Prediction:

• Between 10-20 April 2019, Tesla will announce that all cars coming out of the production line have Autopilot Hardware 3.0

I thought they might publish a blog post but this event is a step up. It shows they are taking it more seriously. I think Tesla wants to promote Autopilot to increase demand and wants to reassure that they are the technology leader in this field. Here is what I would expect on 19 April 2019:

• They will emphasize that the new chip was designed by Tesla. They will call this the "Tesla neural network chip"
• The new HW3.0 package will be called the "Tesla hardware". I see this as a sign of Tesla considering licensing the technology.
• They will make it clear that all cars leaving the factory have the new hardware. Therefore if you buy a Tesla now you will get the new hardware. In reality, all Teslas produced in April have the new hardware.
• Traffic light recognition and automated city driving will be released this year.
• They will talk about potential use cases including automated taxi networks and platooning semi trucks.
• They will show a demo of somebody entering a destination and the car taking you there.

Btw, I don't buy the argument that waiting for HW3 retrofit is better because HW3 won't perform as well as HW2.5 for a while. I think the real reason is, they only have enough HW3 computers for new vehicle production. Also, I'm skeptical that there won't be any hardware differences between HW2.5 and HW3.0 once the computer is swapped. Elon said the HW3.0 retrofit doesn't require any change in wiring but that doesn't mean native-HW3.0 will be identical to retrofit-HW3.0 when you consider the whole package including redundancy.

 

[plumazul]

So, for current owners who purchased FSD, maybe HW 3 in the next couple of years realistically ?

If it's the next couple of years, wouldn't it be HW4? or HW5?

 

[C141medic]

I wonder if they’ll just show this video from 2016

 

[Eno Deb]

So, for current owners who purchased FSD, maybe HW 3 in the next couple of years realistically ?

Time to step up the old joke: three years maybe, six years definitely.

Seriously, I'm looking forward to this event. Should tell us something about where they are. If we see just advanced summon (similar to what has already been leaked in some user videos) I'll be disappointed, but hopefully they'll pull something more impressive.

 

[destructure00]

For anyone who cares, I got option codes from TeslaFi for my March build P3D this morning. Based on when I received my delivery date (March 22) and my VIN (March 27), I'm assuming it was built between those two dates, so let's call it a late March build. It shows APH3/HW2.5.

 

[Nocturnal]

So, for current owners who purchased FSD, maybe HW 3 in the next couple of years realistically ?

It had damn well be faster than that. If FSD is feature complete by end of year then I expect hardware rollouts to start early next year.

What are the odds that at the end of the FSD event, Tesla will announce that a FSD car just completed the autonomous coast to coast drive? Would be an awesome way to shake up the competition.

That would be awesome, but low odds I think.

They can shake up the competition by showing it just driving through a city.

 

[stephenpace]

Where does Electrek get their intel from on this. Where does one find the official Tesla statement?

You can usually find the announcements under Tesla's press release section:

Tesla To Host Autonomy Investor Day | Tesla, Inc.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

What are the odds that at the end of the FSD event, Tesla will announce that a FSD car just completed the autonomous coast to coast drive? Would be an awesome way to shake up the competition.

Lots to 1.

When it comes to Tesla, abandon hope. Wait and see instead.

 

[woodisgood]

Well they say they'll be offering test-drives to investors, so I assume that means FSD drives on a well-practiced route through Palo Alto with a Tesla engineer driving.

Still, as long as they aren't pulling any tricks like hard-coding parts of the route or driving on deserted roads, it should be informative as to where they are.

 

[PoitNarf]

Well they say they'll be offering test-drives to investors, so I assume that means FSD drives on a well-practiced route through Palo Alto with a Tesla engineer driving.

What would be truly show stopping is if they tell guests at the event "put in any address in a 3 mile radius" or something like that. If Tesla only offers test routes that they've done previously that they know it's able to drive without encountering problems it's not as impressive.

 

[woodisgood]

What would be truly show stopping is if they tell guests at the event "put in any address in a 3 mile radius" or something like that. If Tesla only offers test routes that they've done previously that they know it's able to drive without encountering problems it's not as impressive.

Sure, but there's no way the technology is mature enough to allow for that (I'd love to be wrong there). They can't risk having large numbers of disengagements or other failures. The route would have to be well-practiced.

 

[Knightshade]

Btw, I don't buy the argument that waiting for HW3 retrofit is better because HW3 won't perform as well as HW2.5 for a while. I think the real reason is, they only have enough HW3 computers for new vehicle production. Also, I'm skeptical that there won't be any hardware differences between HW2.5 and HW3.0 once the computer is swapped. Elon said the HW3.0 retrofit doesn't require any change in wiring but that doesn't mean native-HW3.0 will be identical to retrofit-HW3.0 when you consider the whole package including redundancy.

How many times does Elon have to explicitly tell you you're wrong about this before you believe him?

 

[Striker3000s]

Sure, but there's no way the technology is mature enough to allow for that (I'd love to be wrong there). They can't risk having large numbers of disengagements or other failures. The route would have to be well-practiced.

Elon has said may times that he could game the system for the cross country drive but was unwilling. I would assume the same to be true for this event. Time will tell.

 

[woodisgood]

Elon has said may times that he could game the system for the cross country drive but was unwilling. I would assume the same to be true for this event. Time will tell.

Do you know what was meant by “game the system” when he said that? There’s a difference (at least to me) between choosing a route or locations you know the system can perform well on vs. cheating by using modified software.

 

[Matias]

Well they say they'll be offering test-drives to investors, so I assume that means FSD drives on a well-practiced route through Palo Alto with a Tesla engineer driving.

Still, as long as they aren't pulling any tricks like hard-coding parts of the route or driving on deserted roads, it should be informative as to where they are.

It is difficult to know whether parts of the route is hardcoded.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Well they say they'll be offering test-drives to investors, so I assume that means FSD drives on a well-practiced route through Palo Alto with a Tesla engineer driving.

Still, as long as they aren't pulling any tricks like hard-coding parts of the route or driving on deserted roads, it should be informative as to where they are.

As a point of reference Waymo did 10 100 mile loops fully autonomously in 2011. I would hope that Tesla is at that point by now.