Tesla EV Tax Credits coming back?

[Ogre]

So does Tesla unwind all these increases if the incentives fall through?

I wonder how many people made their purchase decisions based on the assumption the incentive was a sure thing.. Going to be an awful lot of awkward if it falls through.

 

[Fluffhead]

So does Tesla unwind all these increases if the incentives fall through?

I wonder how many people made their purchase decisions based on the assumption the incentive was a sure thing.. Going to be an awful lot of awkward if it falls through.

I think the demand is high enough that they don't have to. A lot of people don't seem to care about the tax break. I may cancel my reservation if it doesn't go through though. My EDD just moved up to Nov-Dec so I may be delaying it regardless.

 

[plibby1985]

Joining in here for the discussions since I put in an order last Saturday (10/23) and my current delivery window is 11/23 - 12/21. Seems to make sense for me at this point to wait for January to take delivery I guess.

Isn't the proposed tax credit retroactive to deliveries taking place May 24th 2021 - current?

 

[Spidey616]

Isn't the proposed tax credit retroactive to deliveries taking place May 24th 2021 - current?

The senate version was that. The house version was different. Not sure which version they go with or how they compromise. Personally I wouldn’t bank on the retroactive cuts.

 

[alset3000]

Isn't the proposed tax credit retroactive to deliveries taking place May 24th 2021 - current?

There is nothing in the proposed changes that are retroactive. It affects vehicles sold Jan 1 2022 and after.

 

[Corndart]

So does Tesla unwind all these increases if the incentives fall through?

I wonder how many people made their purchase decisions based on the assumption the incentive was a sure thing.. Going to be an awful lot of awkward if it falls through.

Why would they do that? Nobody here knows conclusively these price increases have anything to do with EV incentives, it's 100% theorycrafting.

Given the continued broken state of the global supply and shipping chains, labor market conditions, and inflation spiking many sectors of the economy, the increases are likely orthogonal to any EV incentives / legislation.

Also in neither of the EV incentive proposals would a Model X or Model S qualify for anything (MSRP caps in both proposals)

 

[Ogre]

Why would they do that? Nobody here knows conclusively these price increases have anything to do with EV incentives, it's 100% theorycrafting.

Given the continued broken state of the global supply and shipping chains, labor market conditions, and inflation spiking many sectors of the economy, the increases are likely orthogonal to any EV incentives / legislation.

Also in neither of the EV incentive proposals would a Model X or Model S qualify for anything (MSRP caps in both proposals)

Totally agree.

Seems like a fair number of people assume there will be incentives and are acting as if they are in the bag. They could well be wrong.

 

[mrwug]

Why would they do that? Nobody here knows conclusively these price increases have anything to do with EV incentives, it's 100% theorycrafting.

Given the continued broken state of the global supply and shipping chains, labor market conditions, and inflation spiking many sectors of the economy, the increases are likely orthogonal to any EV incentives / legislation.

Also in neither of the EV incentive proposals would a Model X or Model S qualify for anything (MSRP caps in both proposals)

Not to mention it's really hard to estimate what prices are going to be for a car you're not going to build for 6-8 months. While Tesla locks in the price for the consumer's vehicle, Tesla's suppliers are not locking in prices for anything that hasn't already been ordered or at least optioned.

 

[Tha_Ape]

When people ask me about whether or not they should buy a Tesla now or wait for the "new model" or tax breaks, etc... I just tell them buy it when they want it. All of that stuff changes and is usually a wash. Tax credits come, price goes up, tax credits go away, price goes down. Adding biodefense, bigger batteries, price goes up.. blah blah blah.

The reality is you tend to get what you pay for at any given time. Buy the car when you want it.

 

[t.e.s.l.a_dude]

There is nothing in the proposed changes that are retroactive. It affects vehicles sold Jan 1 2022 and after.

The senate version is retroactive. If that version passes, it will be applied to cars sold after May 24, 2021, the date the bill was introduced.

 

[alset3000]

The senate version is retroactive. If that version passes, it will be applied to cars sold after May 24, 2021, the date the bill was introduced.
View attachment 725926

The legislation being considered right now is the Build Back Better Act which was reported out by the House Ways and Means Committee in September. I have read the language and I assure there is no retroactive portion. I am not sure what the infographic above is talking about with regards to a Senate Finance Committee version. There were some bills introduced in the Spring but that is not what is being debated in Congress right now. Sen. Debbie Stabenow of MI is co-signed on the BBB language from the house so I don't think there would be much change if there is reconciliation.

Of course, things can change, but EV tax credits is not one of things that are being debated if media reports are correct. If Build Back Better gets passed it will likely be based on what on the House reported out of Committee.

 

[DukeofURL]

The senate version is retroactive. If that version passes, it will be applied to cars sold after May 24, 2021, the date the bill was introduced.
View attachment 725926

I've seen people say "it shouldn't be retroactive, it's intended to get people to buy new EVs, not congratulate them for having bought them", which I agree with, but I also applaud the senate version for solving the very problem this thread is about... people trying to delay orders to not miss out while they work out the specifics. It's universally better to have more EVs on the road sooner than later, but then the House version has muddied the water. Oh well! I'm taking delivery of wife's Y on Friday, and I'm just gonna hope I don't get a $7500 depreciation in addition to normal.

 

[Horsemover]

The senate version is retroactive. If that version passes, it will be applied to cars sold after May 24, 2021, the date the bill was introduced.
View attachment 725926

That one is dead…long gone.

 

[986racer]

Of course, things can change, but EV tax credits is not one of things that are being debated if media reports are correct. If Build Back Better gets passed it will likely be based on what on the House reported out of Committee.

Agreed... the only thing that I think would potentially change on that is the income level at which the credits get phased out. I can easily see somebody balking at giving a tax credit to people making 800K... And if they are trying to drive down the 3.5T bill to 2T, this is a very easy place to find some dollars.

 

[alset3000]

Agreed... the only thing that I think would potentially change on that is the income level at which the credits get phased out. I can easily see somebody balking at giving a tax credit to people making 800K... And if they are trying to drive down the 3.5T bill to 2T, this is a very easy place to find some dollars.

Things like income level, the union requirement, the price caps are all subject for debate. However, Biden was in MI a few weeks ago touting this plan with Rep. Kildee, so I think the union part will probably stay in.

The reason I think this will go through has nothing to do with Tesla, It's GM (my former employer). GM needs these credits a lot more than Tesla to be competitive. GM has a lot of Ultium products on the way that will be a serious disadvantage without changes to the tax credits. GM and Ford want to further insulate themselves from the foreign made EVs from Europeans, Koreans, and Japanese. Tesla is just along for the ride.

 

[t.e.s.l.a_dude]

That one is dead…long gone.

Any reference?

 

[Ogre]

Things like income level, the union requirement, the price caps are all subject for debate. However, Biden was in MI a few weeks ago touting this plan with Rep. Kildee, so I think the union part will probably stay in.

The Union component would be a lot less offensive if it was tied to BEV production. My understanding is it can get triggered with PHEV production which is pretty nuts. I could stomach GM/ Ford getting $4500 more than Tesla for producing BEVs. GM, Ford, and Stellantis getting $8500 to crank out PHEVs with 7kWh batteries makes me a little sick to my stomach.

I don’t like the $4500 union component in general, but it is particularly vile when paired with PHEVs.

 

[DukeofURL]

The Union component would be a lot less offensive if it was tied to BEV production. My understanding is it can get triggered with PHEV production which is pretty nuts. I could stomach GM/ Ford getting $4500 more than Tesla for producing BEVs. GM, Ford, and Stellantis getting $8500 to crank out PHEVs with 7kWh batteries makes me a little sick to my stomach.

I don’t like the $4500 union component in general, but it is particularly vile when paired with PHEVs.

I've said the same, that the credit should be the incentive to make the leap from gas to BEV if you're uncertain. A lot of people on this forum have said that PHEVs gave them the confidence to switch to BEV after having the 'safety blanket' of a backup gas engine, which is good, but IMHO if you've got your safety blanket, why do you need an additional incentive?

 

[Corndart]

For would-be Tesla buyers, EV incentives are unnecessary. Trebling the Supercharger network and getting Austin on line will go a long way in the US towards accelerating adoption. Like Elon has stated, they are not demand constrained.

"We are not demand constrained. We are potentially production constrained," insists Elon Musk... (NASDAQ:TSLA)

"We are not demand constrained. We are potentially production constrained," insists Elon Musk during Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) Q4 call.

seekingalpha.com

 

[doomsday997]

I understand the idea but the practicality of going down that path relative to the expense and logistical challenges just doesn't check out for a variety of reasons imo.

Back to the original topic:
Seems like they're closer to an actual spending bill, be curious to see what survives in the EV realm. There was a newsbite yesterday indicating Sinema is for the generic class of green energy (first time she's articulated a position I believe) but Manchin is going to be a problem. He may not care about the EV car angle, they're just more orifices for his dirty coal plants so in a way he should be for these incentives.

he's said before (and in that leaked memo weeks back) he wants the EV tax credits means tested.