One thing missing from the discussion over whether tax credits or other stimulus is needed for EV adoption is that the timeline for the credits is over 5 years. At least on the latest reading of the bill. Why is that timeline important? Because we are still in the early stages of a major technological change from ICE to EV. Other industries have gone through similar shifts, most recently the smartphone. We can look at the adoption curve of that new tech to help us understand why having a prolonged stimulus makes sense.
Asymco on the Innovator's Stopwatch
We are, by any measure, early adopters of EV technology. We put up with delays, poor fit and finish, broken supercharger networks, etc. All because we like and believe in the technology. As many have said,
we don't need any extra push to get us buying EV. But how many of us are there? When push comes to shove, it's a small slice of the overall population.
The rest of people need convenience and shop on cost. If there are any problems finding a way to "fill up", soccer moms are not going to be too happy about tech-geek dad buying a fancy new electric vehicle. Unless it's worth the cost. Over the next 5 years, you're going to see many people buy EVs even with the hassle of a poorly built-out charging network because the cost/benefit is there.
And when most people are buying EVs, guess what happens to the charging network? It also gets built out. Reducing the headaches for EV drivers and changing that cost/benefit calculation even more in favor of EVs. Remember, we're talking
5 years of stimulus, not 6 months.
Could the money better go to only people who need the monetary push to buy an EV? I know I placed my order a couple of weeks ago without any knoweledge of a stimulus. I didn't, and neither did many of you, need a push. So, certainly it could. But how do you target that effectively? We can't wait for the adoption curve to play out - we need to speed it up. And in order to do that, we need cars on the road so the charging infrastructure could get built out.
Could the money have better gone to building out said charging network? Of course, but how would you feel to see charging stations littering the country with no cars to charge up? It would be "oh look. I wonder how much that company paid Senator so-and-so" or "yet another example of wasteful government spending. All these empty charging stations..." And no one like corporate handouts which is certainly how these things would have been spun.
So, the solution is a 5 year boost the nascent EV industry. It doesn't need it today but once the early adopters get theirs, it will. And if you know how government works, it's not responsive to market forces. It would be neigh impossible to get something passed immediately.
I don't want to get into the politics of this but I do believe it's sound policy.
