Tesla EV Tax Credits coming back?

[xxfasteddie]

If you wanted to put the order on hold just in case this tax credit does pass, should we put on hold before a vin or when we get the vin. I just don't wanna put on hold early then get pushed til June. This is for the MYP

 

[Brnn]

Changing the design may make it a new order, price increase and all. You'll get the credit because you won't get the car until next year.

There won't be a price increase for me as I ordered after the most recent one. I'm only concerned about losing my hold until Feb 5. I have the question out but haven't heard back from Tesla yet...

edit: I decided to just try it. It didn't drop the hold and took the configuration change.

 

[Corndart]

A company that has sold about a million cars in the US total will suddenly accelerate to selling a million cars *in the US* in 2022 *conservatively*? OK, then.

Possibly yes, assuming Fremont expansion and Austin production ramp targets hit. Europe gets China produced Tesla's afaik, and the Germany plant is clearing some last regulatory hoops and should start rolling soon ish. So domestic production will largely stay in North America, which should hit a million per year or possibly even more in 2022.

 

[doomsday997]

The House is expected to vote on this next week. The Senate will certainly make changes which the House will need to vote on again. The House's last day of the year is December 10th though so I'd think they need to vote Yes on whatever changes the Senate makes by this time. The Senate will then reconvene on December 13th for their final work period. I think this is all worst case scenario from a timing perspective and they could potentially have it passed by Thanksgiving if you're optimistic. I think absolute worst case scenario is the House has to call a special session at the end of December to get this done.

@doomsday997 this comment isn't really directed at you but more of an update to the thread. Someone correct me where I'm wrong because I don't follow politics in detail this often.

Yep all of this is pretty spot on, all I would add is massive budget and debt ceiling deadlines are rapidly approaching the first week of Dec. If BBB isn't passed by then it will have to be shelved to deal with those issues first.

 

[doomsday997]

The current production rate for Freemont is 500,000 annually, expansion plans to 700,000. Giga Texas begins to seriously ramp up in 2022 to 1,000,000 per year. Only Model S and X don't qualify under present proposal, Models 3, Y and the Cybertruck do, My estimate is extremely conservative, and does not account for any additional US factories that are planned but not yet sited. Tesla's goal is 20 million a year worldwide, with a substantial portion, US sales. Do some research.

The funny thing is that the credits will have very little benefit to Tesla, the company, as they are selling every car they can build now, with extended lead times. The beneficiaries of the credits will be the buyers.


VW will be producing the US version of the id4 in the US beginning early 2022. Hyundai is planning US production of their very competitive line of BEVs. Don't doubt that the European and Japanese US factories will be producing BEVs and PHEVs in volume. Both GM and Ford will be ramping up production and the extra $4,500 will motivate keeping a good percentage in the US, like the F150 lightning and Bolt are now. Stellantis won't be far behind. Remember, ALL foreign made BEVs and PHEVs will be eligible, initially. The credit cost estimates are pathetically low.

Is their goal really 20 million a year? thats almost more than Toyota and VW group combined. Lol its nice to have goals but good luck with that one.

 

[patmurphey]

The MYLR price is up $8K, or 16%, over a year ago. Some of that may be due to increased material and labor costs, but it’s hard to imagine that this explains all of this big price hike. I would guess most of the increase is due to the huge demand and the anticipation of the coming tax credit. Tesla is ramping up production, and I’m sure their pricing goal is to make the demand equal their eventual production capacity. If the government gives everyone $8K to buy one of their cars, they can raise their price by $8K and maintain the same demand. It turns out Adam Smith was right, the principle of supply and demand still holds.

Note that the cars being sold today are priced for 3rd quarter anticipated production costs next year. Look at projected delivery dates

A company that has sold about a million cars in the US total will suddenly accelerate to selling a million cars *in the US* in 2022 *conservatively*? OK, then.

My numbers, just short of 450,000 Freemont US sales in 2021. 2022 should easily reach 750,000 US sales plus depending on how fast Giga Texas ramps to an annual rate of 1,000,000 a year. My projection of over 4,000,000 plus US sales, credit eligible, in the next 4 years is conservative. Tesla's sales are only limited by production. Do some research on the factories if you're skeptical.

Unrelated to US credits, sales from Shanghai and Berlin production will likely exceed US sales. More factories are coming, but the sites haven't been decided.

 

[Teslitored]

If you wanted to put the order on hold just in case this tax credit does pass, should we put on hold before a vin or when we get the vin. I just don't wanna put on hold early then get pushed til June. This is for the MYP

Same question here....my SA told me that if put a hold my EDD could be placed at the end of the line....

my EDD has been pushed back 4 times so far and now is 11/11 - 12-9.... I will let it pushed back naturally, I hope until Jan 2022...

 

[highstrunghero]

If you wanted to put the order on hold just in case this tax credit does pass, should we put on hold before a vin or when we get the vin. I just don't wanna put on hold early then get pushed til June. This is for the MYP

Same question here....my SA told me that if put a hold my EDD could be placed at the end of the line....

my EDD has been pushed back 4 times so far and now is 11/11 - 12-9.... I will let it pushed back naturally, I hope until Jan 2022...

You both pretty much answered your own question. Most people, including SA's will say to wait until after you get a VIN assigned. There's no upside for putting it on hold earlier than VIN assignment.

 

[pepperoni]

You both pretty much answered your own question. Most people, including SA's will say to wait until after you get a VIN assigned. There's no upside for putting it on hold earlier than VIN assignment.

Lots of confusion on this topic here at TMC. I’ve read in various places on this forum that an order can only be put on hold for 30 days after a VIN is assigned. There is some evidence of this in the Order Agreement: “For new vehicles, if you do not take delivery within thirty (30) days of our first attempt to notidy you, Tesla may cancel your order and keep your Order Fee.” See: https://www.tesla.com/order/download-order-agreement?redirect=no&country=US&model_code=m3 . There is also plenty of evidence that you do not go to the back of the line when putting your order on hold before a VIN. See the signature of many folks here, showing EDDs before and after they out their cars on hold. What’s the truth here? I don’t know. It would be nice if Tesla offered more clarity on the impact of going on hold. I put mine on hold without a VIN, and here is what it looks like:

Delivery on hold​

Your delivery is on hold until December 31, 2021. If your circumstances have changed and you’re now ready to take delivery, tap “I’m Ready” and complete your pre-delivery tasks. You will then be notified when the next Model Y with your configuration is available.

From this text (see highlight), it doesn’t sound like I will go to the end of the line.

 

[rmay635703]

This is all well and good but in the re-Instated tax credit still include being retroactive through may this year?

 

[Unclepaul]

Believe Tesla will be willing to hold your order, as long as you take delivery before the EOY.

After that all bets are off as they begin vectoring production to Asia and Europe, to allow those cars to be delivered prior to First Quarter, 2022.

Cars delayed until after EOY often do not get delivered till Spring.

 

[pgcoco]

Believe Tesla will be willing to hold your order, as long as you take delivery before the EOY.

After that all bets are off as they begin vectoring production to Asia and Europe, to allow those cars to be delivered prior to First Quarter, 2022.

Cars delayed until after EOY often do not get delivered till Spring.

So does that mean, less deliveries are made in US early in the year?

This is all well and good but in the re-Instated tax credit still include being retroactive through may this year?

I don't think retroactive to may of this year is an option anymore.

 

[leaftoy]

Believe Tesla will be willing to hold your order, as long as you take delivery before the EOY.

After that all bets are off as they begin vectoring production to Asia and Europe, to allow those cars to be delivered prior to First Quarter, 2022.

Cars delayed until after EOY often do not get delivered till Spring.

So if I have an EDD window that straddles EOY, I either get the car end of December or end of March just because I live in the same region as the Fremont factory and our turn only comes during EOQ push? That doesn't seem fair.

 

[Budshark]

So if I have an EDD window that straddles EOY, I either get the car end of December or end of March just because I live in the same region as the Fremont factory and our turn only comes during EOQ push? That doesn't seem fair.

unfortunately not fair but seems to hold true. At least until Berlin and Austin come online and change the game.

 

[Viv1984]

So if I have an EDD window that straddles EOY, I either get the car end of December or end of March just because I live in the same region as the Fremont factory and our turn only comes during EOQ push? That doesn't seem fair.

Yeah, that seems like how they do it. My original delivery window was end of Sept/beginning of October, they missed EOQ and now I'm getting pushed to December.

 

[leaftoy]

Yeah, that seems like how they do it. My original delivery window was end of Sept/beginning of October, they missed EOQ and now I'm getting pushed to December.

So slower than some of the August MYLRs! That’s unfortunate for an MYP order!

 

[Viv1984]

So slower than some of the August MYLRs! That’s unfortunate for an MYP order!

Yeah, I should have just ordered a LR. I paid extra to get the car early... so much for that.

 

[TSLY]

Delivery on hold​

Your delivery is on hold until December 31, 2021. If your circumstances have changed and you’re now ready to take delivery, tap “I’m Ready” and complete your pre-delivery tasks. You will then be notified when the next Model Y with your configuration is available.

I was assigned a VIN the same day that way. An SA secured a VIN, on hold, with my configuration, hot off the assembly line, and allocated it to my order two hours later. My EDD was December. Took delivery October.

 

[Fluffhead]

Does anyone that knows how reconciliation works think this bill could get pushed into next year? I know reconcilation has to take place before end of year but just realized that's a fiscal year ending September 30. The Senate still has a defense bill, debt ceiling, and government funding they have to get done in December.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

So if I have an EDD window that straddles EOY, I either get the car end of December or end of March just because I live in the same region as the Fremont factory and our turn only comes during EOQ push? That doesn't seem fair.

If you miss the end of December, then I would expect it in early January. It's not like they just stop all deliveries for three months. Most likely your car will have already been built and is just awaiting delivery. When we ordered our first X in 2019, it was supposed to be delivered at the end of March. Due to weather, they weren't able to deliver it by the end of March but we got it in the first week of April.