Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

[Benz]

But does this mean that there will be no Conference Call Q&A session?
That's actually what I was expecting after what was said during the ER Conference Call of last week.

 

[DingDingDao]

where do you think they will put it?

Texas - not friendly to Tesla
Arizona - has political issues

Nevada - closer to Fremont and shipping
New Mexico - several other factories there already, so may fit in better than Nevada?

Thoughts?

Aren't there also some huge tax benefits to setting up shop in Nevada?

 

[pz1975]

But does this mean that there will be no Conference Call Q&A session?
That's actually what I was expecting after what was said during the ER Conference Call of last week.

Maybe he will answer questions after his presentation today. I don't know the details of what the presentation is today, but maybe there will be press? Or maybe a CC afterwards? He did say press conference in the ER I think, not just press release.

 

[AnOutsider]

so the other interesting thing about this announcement is that TSLA has probably locked up something like 30-50% of WW li-ion battery capacity between existing agreements and gigafactory (assuming continued growth of existing players). Which kind of means that the other car markers need to stick to hybrids with smaller batteries or commit to building out their own factories. Over the next year or so it will become really apparent how serious existing manufacturers are about 100% EV just based on their (lack of) investment in battery manufacturing and if they really have the BEV infrastructure to compete.

or maybe create a bidding war? Couldn't demand drive up prices again?

 

[Benz]

Maybe he will answer questions after his presentation today. I don't know the details of what the presentation is today, but maybe there will be press? Or maybe a CC afterwards? He did say press conference in the ER I think, not just press release.

I think that we all are interested in knowing the details of what the presentation is today, right?

 

[dsm363]

A guess of course but Nevada or Texas. I'd imagine whichever gives best package will get it.

 

[austinEV]

where do you think they will put it?

Texas - not friendly to Tesla
Arizona - has political issues

Nevada - closer to Fremont and shipping
New Mexico - several other factories there already, so may fit in better than Nevada?

Thoughts?

Texas, just east of Austin!

 

[DriverOne]

> Texas - not friendly to Tesla

Opening up sales could be a key clause in the package Texas offers. We will see.

 

[hobbes]

Presumably still sourcing batteries from Panasonic (and/or others at that point) in addition to what the gigafactory will produce.

I was surprised about the 35GWhr cell number vs the 50GWhr pack number, too - now I think it is supposed to say that there will be a total of 85GWhr of cells of which "only" 50GWhrs will be built into packs. The rest would be sold to someone else... like Apple?

 

[nvsblman]

> Texas - not friendly to Tesla

Opening up sales could be a key clause in the package Texas offers. We will see.

The Texas legislature doesn't meet in even numbered years, that might be a roadblock to getting a deal done with the state.

 

[Hells]

I'm interested in the 35GWhr cell number and the 50GWhr pack number. Will they be using good cells from old packs and putting them in new packs for grid storage? I guess we'll see.

In the slides the arrow indicate they will process the old packs for raw materials, so it doesnt appear that way, but it could be deliberately obtuse.

where do you think they will put it?

Texas - not friendly to Tesla
Arizona - has political issues

Nevada - closer to Fremont and shipping
New Mexico - several other factories there already, so may fit in better than Nevada?

Thoughts?

Logistics would matter a lot, which site would have the best shipping rail?

Somewhat interesting is Tesla claims the yearly production of 35 gwh is equal to 500,000 vehicles. It would imply an average of 70 kwh per vehicle. Approx. 65kwh for Model E?

 

[dsm363]

Official Tesla Gigafactory Discussion Thread

The Texas legislature doesn't meet in even numbered years, that might be a roadblock to getting a deal done with the state.

The governor would have to call a special session I believe but don't see that happening. Of course if people find out they passed on a multi hundred million dollar factory just to satisfy the dealer lobby over 3,000 Teslas or so sold a year in Texas then that wouldn't make them look great.

 

[ecarfan]

I was surprised about the 35GWhr cell number vs the 50GWhr pack number, too - now I think it is supposed to say that there will be a total of 85GWhr of cells of which "only" 50GWhrs will be built into packs. The rest would be sold to someone else... like Apple?

I think most of the balance of cell production will go into storage systems for PV installations, commercial and residential.

 

[Aphysician]

So, 5 billion for Gigafactory. Tesla 2 billion and Panasonic 1 billion. Who are other partners? Could Apple be one of them? They obviously need lithium batteries, although of different architecture.
Tesla Giga Factory Update: $4 to $5 Billion Price Tag With Production Slated For 2017 : Greentech Media
Tesla Motors (TSLA) eyes battery factory to boost electric car production - CSMonitor.com

 

[dhanson865]

Texas, just east of Austin!

Texas north of Amarillo has good wind and solar.
New Mexico east of that near I-40 is also very good for wind and solar
Arizona and Nevada are more solar oriented (less wind) but maybe they can find a site with enough wind to make it worth it in one of those states.

I can't imagine they'd want to mess with central or east texas due to shipping distances, congestion, and wind patterns.

 

[Todd Burch]

This will also accelerate the drop in price of replacement packs for Model S/Roadster/X owners. 30% drop in price in just a few years...so anyone who prepaid for a new pack x years down the road probably didn't get as good a deal. Also means we'll likely see larger packs sooner rather than later.

It also means Tesla will likely change the form factor of their battery packs (no more 18650s) so we'll probably see energy density/weight/size improvements come sooner with their own battery factory.

 

[dsm363]

Why would they change the form factory of the cells at this point?

 

[Aphysician]

So, 5 billion for Gigafactory. Tesla 2 billion and Panasonic 1 billion. Who are other partners? Could Apple be one of them? They obviously need lithium batteries, although of different architecture.
Tesla Giga Factory Update: $4B to $5B Price Tag With Production Slated for 2017 : Greentech Media
Tesla Motors (TSLA) eyes battery factory to boost electric car production - CSMonitor.com

 

[aznt1217]

Just looked at the plans for the Giga factory... absolutely incredible. The American government has to be happy about this. Rural location + 6500 NEW jobs with potential to export. Furthermore, tech. companies HAVE to be interested, it can cut down logistics costs.

Shouldn't be hard to get partners. Apple also uses a lot of things in the parts explosion and process flow diagram. This is going to be great. The fact that they are planning ahead for a serious Gen III production ramp, this should be a huge signal to the "haters" and competitors that Tesla is REALLY serious. Gen III isn't some dream, this is the first tangible sign for product execution.

 

[tom66]

Apple's lithium polymer batteries need a pretty much completely different manufacturing process. However, there could be partnership for other companies, like SolarCity and HP/Dell/Lenovo/etc (who still use 18650s in their standard form factor batteries.)