I would be cautious with trusting that article. The statement about being sold out is not substantiated, explained and no source given. But it is possible - those finalizing now are getting delivery estimates sep/oct.
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I would be cautious with trusting that article. The statement about being sold out is not substantiated, explained and no source given. But it is possible - those finalizing now are getting delivery estimates sep/oct.
PS: Here is how to think about the potential in Norway. Imagine the US, only the median annual salary is $80,000. Then imagine that all ICE cars are subject to a tax that more than tripples their sales price. Then make the gas price $10 per gallon and let electric cars drive in the carpool lane as well as avoid road tolls (for which most people spend $5-10 per day).
This is the reality over here. Annual new car sales is about 180.000 units. I am convinced that with the right marketing, the potential for the Model S should be 10-20% of that.
Edit: I forgot a few additional things. We have a reliable, clean and not too expensive supply of hydropower. And municipalities are building charging stations at parking spaces reserved for EVs.
This is the reality over here. Annual new car sales is about 180.000 units. I am convinced that with the right marketing, the potential for the Model S should be 10-20% of that.
Edit: I forgot a few additional things. We have a reliable, clean and not too expensive supply of hydropower. And municipalities are building charging stations at parking spaces reserved for EVs.
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adiggs
Well-Known Member
Heck DonPedro - with all that going for them, Tesla just needs a mix of cars for different niches to become the de facto standard car. I can see why Tesla is motivated to start shipping cars yours way.
I understand that the model s is quite a bit cheaper than the other luxury vehicles, but what percentage of the population is even considering luxury vehicles? It's still only selling to the top 1% of earners, right? Whereas the BMWs are now only selling to the top 0.1%?
So the population of Norway is 5m. A 10% percent penetration to the top 1% is 5000 vehicles sold.
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I think the gas price story is the same across most of Europe, if I'm not mistaken. This is probably why tesla has anticipated a significant portion of their sales will come from over seas, not North America.
I think you did not register an important piece of information. The median annual salary is $80k. Despite the ICE taxes I mentioned, BMW and Mercedes Benz each have market shares of around 5% of all new car sales. Even the cheapest models from those brands start higher than the Model S. People who now reserving the Model S who would never consider getting a BMW or an MB (I fall into that category myself). So I am serious when I say that the Model S should have the potential to sweep the top 20% market segment.
Yes, the European countries tend to have carbon taxes that drive up the price of gas significantly in comparison with the US.
On the Norwegian forum I have posted a spreadsheet that shows that with a 5 year horizon and reasonable assumptions, the total cost of ownership of an 85kWh TMS is comparable to an entry-level VW Golf. It has received quite a bit of interest, and nobody has pointed out any flaws in the math.
Yes, the European countries tend to have carbon taxes that drive up the price of gas significantly in comparison with the US.
On the Norwegian forum I have posted a spreadsheet that shows that with a 5 year horizon and reasonable assumptions, the total cost of ownership of an 85kWh TMS is comparable to an entry-level VW Golf. It has received quite a bit of interest, and nobody has pointed out any flaws in the math.
Please don't call them estimations - I am shooting from the hip here and not taking into account such future occurrences as for instance real competition in the EV segment, changes in taxation etc.
Leasing is discouraged by the tax system. But I think that Tesla should come out with a Norwegian financing package as a very, very high priority. And a credible TCO calculator (hyperbole goes down very poorly in Norwegian culture).
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
I think it's already been established that Norway is the largest non-California market. Even the really terrible pocket EV's that are being developed seem to be getting a hard look by Norwegians. The government has enacted financial disincentives to purchase ICE that would be shocking to Americans.
Anyways, I've been curious for awhile now whether that is more from environmental concern on the part of Norwegians, or an economic desire to enhance the size of the oil trust fund by encouraging more exports? I'd imagine both, but what do Norwegians think?
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I think it's already been established that Norway is the largest non-California market. Even the really terrible pocket EV's that are being developed seem to be getting a hard look by Norwegians. The government has enacted financial disincentives to purchase ICE that would be shocking to Americans.
Anyways, I've been curious for awhile now whether that is more from environmental concern on the part of Norwegians, or an economic desire to enhance the size of the oil trust fund by encouraging more exports? I'd imagine both, but what do Norwegians think?
For first time buyers of EVs in Norway I'm quite sure it's the economic benefits coupled with driving in the bus lane and avoiding tolls that is important to 80%, while 20% do it for the environment. For second time buyers (like myself) it's simply that fact that once you have owned an EV, even if it's just the "terrible pocket EV" i-MiEV, you never want to get an ICE again. Simple as that. And there are starting to be quite some second time buyers now. And when not one but two or three of your neighbors are driving an EV people will start to think "maybe it's for me too?" and then what have you: critical mass. Norway will be the first country in the world to reach critical mass when it comes to EV adoption, as long as there are suitable vehicles in different price ranges supplied by the industry. Once that critical mass is reached attitudes will change very quickly and from one year to the next people won't be asking themselves: "why should I do something new and get an EV, this new and scary thing?" but instead they will be saying to themselves: "are there any reasons anymore to get one of those old ICEs?". And for the majority of buyers the answer will be no. There will still be new ICEs sold, but it will be a niche thing.
Anyways, I've been curious for awhile now whether that is more from environmental concern on the part of Norwegians, or an economic desire to enhance the size of the oil trust fund by encouraging more exports? I'd imagine both, but what do Norwegians think?
The ICE taxes were in place long before any other propulsion systems were around. They are a mix of environmental tax and pure revenue generation. It became clear to everyone a long time ago that if you want to have a good, environmental tax system wrt. cars, you tax the usage not the ownership (and so these taxes should be removed). However, by that time the revenue generated by the import tax on cars was such that no politician wants to touch it. There are far more unpopular taxes to campaign against for budget slashing politicians, and all taxes are welcome for those who want to sustain or increase gov't spending.
Norway exports such obscene amounts of oil and gas per capita that domestic consumption doesn't make much of a difference. Besides, the revenue to the sovereign fund is not affected by whether the hydrocarbons are consumed domestically or abroad - the oil companies that are being taxed to fill the coffers (78% special tax rate) make similar profits no matter whom they sell the stuff to.
Been hearing that more and more. Johan, how would best describe the reason for that? For recent S owners they talk about the performance they would lose going back to ICE. I imagine its something else from a 'pocket-EV' owner. Whatever the reason, would you think it would translate innately or more uniquely served by the Norway financial incentives / infrastructure ?
DP, go back and look at at the calculator. They "fixed" it per Elons' last Call.
Thanks for your clear explanation of why Norway will be Teslacentral of EU. If I were another manufacture of a high end luxury car I would trot out a shell of a prototype car, claim it had all sorts of range, features and impressive speeds to rival Tesla just to slow sales of the MS for a few years.
Wait, they all already have!
erha
Member
I don't think any countries even come close to Norway when it comes to incentives, but Germany for example has about 20 times the population of Norway. Sales compared to population will be much lower, but I still think Europe will contribute quite a bit to model s sales
Citizen-T
Active Member
Germany has a lot of solar too. Only problem there is that there are a lot of luxury German automakers that would have home field advantage.
Not to mention the roads are important too. Except som small stretches around the capitol which has our best highways with speed limits at 100km/h most long-distance roads in Norway are very curvy and has as posted speed limit at 80km/h. Like everywhere else most people drive slightly faster so add +10km/h on a day with good weather. Contrast this with germany and most parts of western Europea which is connected with excellent highways with posted speed limits at 120-130+km/h, that makes a huge difference in range.
About the car taxes, after the second world war due to most of our poor nations income was used in rebuilding the north and generally building up, you needed a stated reason for a car to be able to get a car-buying license. My step-granddad had one as he was a shopowner and needed it for getting supplies to his store. So after 1 oct 1960 carsales were "free", you no longer needed a license to buy a car, just the money. Around that time a car was still seen as a luxury good, and was taxed appropiately. Probably since it was a luxury good at the time and because Norway wanted to limit our imports. Since then due to oil our nation is now very rich but we've never really changed the amount of taxation on cars and just changed the name from luxury tax to enviromental tax
Cobos
very interesting story. thanks!
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ok, let me rephrase my question: any other countries in Europe have enough incentive to make owning a 60kwh Model S economically more favorable than owning a Mercedes E-series or BMW 5-series？
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ok, let me rephrase my question: any other countries in Europe have enough incentive to make owning a 60kwh Model S economically more favorable than owning a Mercedes E-series or BMW 5-series？
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
They all have $8 gas prices. But I expect Germany will be relatively weak regardless of the economics. Better to focus on the periphery.
The Tesla brand also looks really weak in the U.K. That Top Gear thing really did a number on them.
After Norway comes the Netherlands and Belgium regarding the sales numbers.
Concerning the tax incentives it's the same order (mainly for company cars). However, in Belgium the government cancelled the tax incentive (wich was +/-12,000$) for private purchase, because of our country's budget.
You also have to know that the standard 60kWh-model costs about 72,600€ -> x 1,316= 95,500$
But don't worry, Putin and the other OPEC-countries will give in the future more and more people a reason the drive electric. (including the Germans):wink:
Concerning the tax incentives it's the same order (mainly for company cars). However, in Belgium the government cancelled the tax incentive (wich was +/-12,000$) for private purchase, because of our country's budget.
You also have to know that the standard 60kWh-model costs about 72,600€ -> x 1,316= 95,500$
But don't worry, Putin and the other OPEC-countries will give in the future more and more people a reason the drive electric. (including the Germans):wink:
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