Tesla sales rep said MY with 4680 will NOT have longer range

[Mrbrock]

Agreed...they're certainly not going to fill in the space with MORE battery capacity....It feels much more likely they'll keep the capacity the same..and any benefits are strictly because of weight..which doesn't end up being that significant in the overall scheme of things...

For sure they're not putting MORE capacity. I think that is a for sure thing. Anyone hoping they're filling the same weight/area that is there with 2170s with 4680s is going to be disappointed. Whether they put in the same capacity or less is yet to be determined. I think they take on too much of a risk trying to shave a few extra batteries off. I think the company benefits from using the 4680 in general, the consumers will benefit from the slightly lower weight. Overall it'll end up making a tiny difference. It could just be slightly lower capacity and slightly more range but who knows what's going to come back with certification....I guess we will see soon.

Will they have space (and a way) to add more batteries for extra capacity later? Could be...Would some people be willing to pay for it? Of course...Being ok with the current range does NOT mean you wouldn't pay more for more range. Tesla has already proven that is the case and we're certainly not at the range where that doesn't matter..900 to 1000? Probably very few...If we were talking 500 vs 600 miles, not many but more would care. But 300ish to 400ish? Even more people would care.

I think it depends on where you live. Climate and SC availability being the two biggest factors. Warm weather an SCs every 50 miles or less? Going from 330 to 380 isn’t going to matter. Example: CA. I traded from SR M3 to LR MY for extra interior capacity more than range. And AWD. If they had a 260 mile AWD, I probably would have done that to save $5k. Have had no issues traveling with the wife’s SR MY or my SR M3.

Now, if you have less SC availability (100+ miles between) and cold weather, then yeah, that extra range might be worth it.

As far as the math goes, if they add 5% xtra cells, every 20 cars will have enough extra batteries for a full car. If there is a $20k margin on each MY sold and they price the upgrade at $2k, they need at least 50% of buyers to pay for the upgrade to not lose money. Not going to happen, not a good bet for Tesla financially.

 

[Polymer]

I think it depends on where you live. Climate and SC availability being the two biggest factors. Warm weather an SCs every 50 miles or less? Going from 330 to 380 isn’t going to matter. Example: CA. I traded from SR M3 to LR MY for extra interior capacity more than range. And AWD. If they had a 260 mile AWD, I probably would have done that to save $5k. Have had no issues traveling with the wife’s SR MY or my SR M3.

Now, if you have less SC availability (100+ miles between) and cold weather, then yeah, that extra range might be worth it.

As far as the math goes, if they add 5% xtra cells, every 20 cars will have enough extra batteries for a full car. If there is a $20k margin on each MY sold and they price the upgrade at $2k, they need at least 50% of buyers to pay for the upgrade to not lose money. Not going to happen, not a good bet for Tesla financially.

I'm not saying they're going to include extra cells though. I'm saying they might have an option to add extra cells or a new version with more. Personally I think the idea of a modular upgrade is a great one...not sure how easy/difficult that would be to do...

 

[Mrbrock]

I'm not saying they're going to include extra cells though. I'm saying they might have an option to add extra cells or a new version with more. Personally I think the idea of a modular upgrade is a great one...not sure how easy/difficult that would be to do...

Not with the structural pack. Already going to be issues of repair on the structural pack. Cells are glued together and part of the frame of the car. You will have to essentially replace the frame if you have to do any battery work. Cheaper to build but more expensive to work on.

 

[Polymer]

Not with the structural pack. Already going to be issues of repair on the structural pack. Cells are glued together and part of the frame of the car. You will have to essentially replace the frame if you have to do any battery work. Cheaper to build but more expensive to work on.

It actually isn't clear how the cells are in the frame.....and nothing has been indicated exactly how this is put together. It could be that's the case, but it means essentially a total in many cases....I'm hoping they've figured out a better way to do it...

 

[goin2drt]

It actually isn't clear how the cells are in the frame.....and nothing has been indicated exactly how this is put together. It could be that's the case, but it means essentially a total in many cases....I'm hoping they've figured out a better way to do it...

And it isn't clear on number of cells, range, total weight, charger speed etc etc etc . This is just another one of the dozen "battery threads" with zero facts from anyone that is accountable for the facts but a bunch of hearsay, speculating and drone footage. The facts will come out when they do but until then the rest is speculation and you might have a better chance of being correct if you went to Vegas and put all your money on red.

 

[advocate8]

And it isn't clear on number of cells, range, total weight, charger speed etc etc etc . This is just another one of the dozen "battery threads" with zero facts from anyone that is accountable for the facts but a bunch of hearsay, speculating and drone footage. The facts will come out when they do but until then the rest is speculation and you might have a better chance of being correct if you went to Vegas and put all your money on red.

That’s not nearly as much fun as arguing on the internet with smart strangers, though. And the buffet situation in Vegas has gone straight to hell because of Covid.

 

[Msicario]

That’s not nearly as much fun as arguing on the internet with smart strangers, though. And the buffet situation in Vegas has gone straight to hell because of Covid.

Your not kidding; There are some very intelligent people on this Tesla Club.
I truly have learned a lot.. thanks

 

[tangible1]

I just got notified that my new MY-P VIN has been assigned. Sales rep told me that my car has the new Ryzen chip plus all the other new stuff except for the 4680 battery. I live in SoCal so the car is coming out of Fremont. He proceeded to say that the 4680 battery will NOT offer longer range for my MY-P because that would simply "invalidate" all the existing MYs. It makes no sense for Tesla to do so. He explained that 4680 simply allows Tesla to be more efficient in manufacturing the batteries. They would just put FEWER batteries in the car to achieve similar range as before.

I'm currently stuck in deciding if I should postpone my delivery in hopes to get the 4680 battery. But if there's no benefit, then I don't need to wait.

While I understand the business decision to allow room to grow and potentially offer even longer range at a higher price point, can anyone confirm if this is in fact true?

4680 batteries are not in abundant supply.
Until they are, don't expect real range improvement. There might be a minor improvement because the new chassis will weigh less, but that's it.

The benefit of the 4680 is indirect. It's not about power, it's about what the 4680 enables.
The structural battery pack enables the v2.0 chassis build, which will be lighter, stiffer, and more consistent.
Those mean a car that handles better, has potential for better performance, potential for more range, and has better body panel fit/finish.

Tesla will just populate the battery pack to make MY range similar to the current EPA rating. We might see 350 miles. Max.
When and if competitors bring more range, then Tesla will be able to easily bump the MY to match. Until then, do not expect more range.
But the MY will become a more finished, superior vehicle by way of the new v2.0 chassis that 4680's enable.

 

[Big Dog]

Your sales rep may ultimately be correct, but s/he really knows nothing. Until Elon comes out with an official announcement, everyone is just speculating. Heck, even if Elon came out with an announcement, that could change before delivery.

 

[tangible1]

Because Fremont is not currently set up to build the structural battery pack which the 4680's require. That's what they're trying to perfect and get certified in Texas. Once Texas is pumping them out smoothly, Fremont factory will likely be paused and modified to match. Can't do it the other way around unless you want Tesla to completely stop making Model Y's in the US while they change the Fremont factory.

Actually, Fremont is making the 4680 structural battery packs for Texas.
Texas isn't making batteries OR packs as yet. They're all shipped in from Fremont.

Fremont WILL be making the new 4680-based MY chassis very soon, in roughly the same timeframe as Texas.
Proof? Why would fremont have thousands of FRONT megacasts stacked up on the lot, if not to make the new chassis?

It makes no sense for the Fremont factory to be making a version of the MY different from the Texas factory.
Logistics of customer deliveries, supplier management, and all manner of other complications would rob Tesla of any cost savings.
Not happening. Both factories will be making the same MY builds.

 

[soumak]

Actually, Fremont is making the 4680 structural battery packs for Texas.
Texas isn't making batteries OR packs as yet. They're all shipped in from Fremont.

Fremont WILL be making the new 4680-based MY chassis very soon, in roughly the same timeframe as Texas.
Proof? Why would fremont have thousands of FRONT megacasts stacked up on the lot, if not to make the new chassis?

It makes no sense for the Fremont factory to be making a version of the MY different from the Texas factory.
Logistics of customer deliveries, supplier management, and all manner of other complications would rob Tesla of any cost savings.
Not happening. Both factories will be making the same MY builds.

They have only made a million 4680s from Fremont. They are going to need a massive ramp up to say every model y will get 4860s from both Fremont and Texas. Probably will need a year or so.

 

[tangible1]

They have only made a million 4680s from Fremont. They are going to need a massive ramp up to say every model y will get 4860s from both Fremont and Texas. Probably will need a year or so.

Tesla isn't going to be making many MY's in Texas soon. The ramp-up will be modest.
Yet Fremont is building towards using them for the MY chassis as well. They do 5000 MY per week.
Thousands of Front Magacasts stacked up on the Fremont lot are evidence (they'll not be shipping those to Texas).

The 'made a million batteries' post is a false flag. Tesla is once again playing the internet.
1 Million batteries isn't even close to what's needed for just Texas to meet it's needs, and that factory is about to start customer deliveries.

SVP Baglione stated at the Q4 Earnings Call last month that Tesla has sufficient supply to meet their production plans.
While what exactly the plans are wasn't discussed, he did say that they also expect supplies from 3rd parties to be used as well.

All said, no one outside Tesla knows. We all get to watch and find out.

 

[Mengy]

4680 batteries are not in abundant supply.
Until they are, don't expect real range improvement. There might be a minor improvement because the new chassis will weigh less, but that's it.

The benefit of the 4680 is indirect. It's not about power, it's about what the 4680 enables.
The structural battery pack enables the v2.0 chassis build, which will be lighter, stiffer, and more consistent.
Those mean a car that handles better, has potential for better performance, potential for more range, and has better body panel fit/finish.

Tesla will just populate the battery pack to make MY range similar to the current EPA rating. We might see 350 miles. Max.
When and if competitors bring more range, then Tesla will be able to easily bump the MY to match. Until then, do not expect more range.
But the MY will become a more finished, superior vehicle by way of the new v2.0 chassis that 4680's enable.

Exactly this.

I think initial cars made with 4680's will be tuned to have comparable ranges to 2170 cars. HOWEVER, once ALL cars are being made with 4680 cells, THEN Tesla might increase the cell count a bit to bump ranges up across the board at the same time. That's my hunch on how it will unfold.

 

[RefreshedP]

I'm currently a 21 m3P owner. I'm definitely waiting for the 4680 equipped performance Y. Imo, the biggest advantage at the time of release will the ability to provide a greater range in cold northern climates. As it sits right, in winter months, there have been times I can only get 120-130 miles from 90% charge. If the 4680 can get me at least 230 that's a major selling point for me.

 

[advocate8]

I'm currently a 21 m3P owner. I'm definitely waiting for the 4680 equipped performance Y. Imo, the biggest advantage at the time of release will the ability to provide a greater range in cold northern climates. As it sits right, in winter months, there have been times I can only get 120-130 miles from 90% charge. If the 4680 can get me at least 230 that's a major selling point for me.

you’re hoping for a 100-mile boost then?

 

[dmh444]

Like what others have it, there's no need to wait for the 4680 batteries. No one knows for sure if it'll have increased range (probably not). Besides, there's no guarantee you'll get one (even if you try and "time" it perfectly unless you want to keep delaying your delivery date until you get a VIN with an "A". Besides, I'm not really sure if I want to be the 1st few to get a 4680 right off the production line. Rather wait for the kinks to work itself out before having to take your car into the service center for potential issues (assuming it can't be fixed via software update).
That said, the one reason I would want to wait is for resale purposes though. Gotta imagine there'll be a premium selling a '22 MY 5-6 years from now with a 2170 vs 4680 battery.

Had my MY for almost 2 years now and loved every minute of it. Will most likely sell it and get the MYP.

 

[preilly44]

I'm currently a 21 m3P owner. I'm definitely waiting for the 4680 equipped performance Y. Imo, the biggest advantage at the time of release will the ability to provide a greater range in cold northern climates. As it sits right, in winter months, there have been times I can only get 120-130 miles from 90% charge. If the 4680 can get me at least 230 that's a major selling point for me.

You must be driving really fast in really cold weather with the heat on high to only get 120 miles in a m3P.....

 

[ZenRockGarden]

you’re hoping for a 100-mile boost then?

Worse still, he's expecting a range increase of over 50% (130 -> 230) which is wildly unrealistic for what the 4680 brings to the table. 4680 is a great step forward. It allows there to be ~4x fewer (larger) cells per pack and fewer parts to house said pack. That means it's faster and cheaper to manufacture, it saves some weight, and yes the tabless cell design offers potential for faster charging and longer life. But the total energy density of the pack is not gonna almost double because... physics.

 

[advocate8]

Worse still, he's expecting a range increase of over 50% (130 -> 230) which is wildly unrealistic for what the 4680 brings to the table. 4680 is a great step forward. It allows there to be ~4x fewer (larger) cells per pack and fewer parts to house said pack. That means it's faster and cheaper to manufacture, it saves some weight, and yes the tabless cell design offers potential for faster charging and longer life. But the total energy density of the pack is not gonna almost double because... physics.

It looks to be a work of genius. Just not one that’s gonna yield 50-percent-plus range boost. I mainly like the idea of less weight and more simplicity. If you look at say an X3 M40i you’re looking at... a 48v starter/motor shoved between the 10-speed automatic tranny and ... a twin-turbo 6 with god knows how much heat pouring off it onto 46,000 hoses and vacuum lines, and bearings dealing with 100,000 rpm on turbos... then the variable valves....
In short a nice ride these days surely has about 20 times the moving parts of a Tesla. Know you can get a bad one, but there’s just not that much big stuff to break.

 

[tangible1]

I'm currently a 21 m3P owner. I'm definitely waiting for the 4680 equipped performance Y. Imo, the biggest advantage at the time of release will the ability to provide a greater range in cold northern climates. As it sits right, in winter months, there have been times I can only get 120-130 miles from 90% charge. If the 4680 can get me at least 230 that's a major selling point for me.

There will be little change to the range of a MYP with 4680 batteries.
Tesla will deliver a battery pack roughly the same rating as current 82kWh packs.
There may be some range improvement because of the reduced overall weight of the v2.0 chassis.

That's it. Expect EPA rated 350mile max. Anything better is a gift.