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Tesla says 12,200 Model 3 orders canceled
- Thread starter igotzzoom
- Start date
TaoJones
Beyond Driven
The number I am particularly partial to, if a tad surprised by, is the 7% owner reservation number. Swag-ing half of those being from CA, that means there's a reasonable chance that all CA owners will get their Model 3s in month 2, and certainly within the first quarter of 2018 presuming employees get their cars by Christmas 2017.
Ordinarily I'd prefer to wait a year or three after any new model, but it so happens that my GRV window is early 2018.
Essentially the same monthly payment equivalent for a new 4 year warranty and a 20% smaller car that's less expensive to maintain/repair over time.
And at the end of the total of six years, it will have been 1 car payment for 2 cars.
Tempting. My original intention was to keep this Model S for 8 years. But the service variability has been such that owning out of warranty is just no longer defensible.
And then there's leasing.
Ordinarily I'd prefer to wait a year or three after any new model, but it so happens that my GRV window is early 2018.
Essentially the same monthly payment equivalent for a new 4 year warranty and a 20% smaller car that's less expensive to maintain/repair over time.
And at the end of the total of six years, it will have been 1 car payment for 2 cars.
Tempting. My original intention was to keep this Model S for 8 years. But the service variability has been such that owning out of warranty is just no longer defensible.
And then there's leasing.
There were definitly some cancellations in Norway because it's a notchback sedan. Most were expecting a liftback sedan and some were hoping for a hatchback.
alseTrick
Active Member
What is the difference between a liftback and a hatchback? Is a liftback a sedan with a "hatch" trunk (ie, the model S), whereas a hatchback is more station wagon-y (ie, a station wagon)?
Liftback sedan is the Model S. Hatchback is something similar to the Chevy Bolt or Nissan Leaf. Station wagon is basically a longer more roomy hatchback.
alseTrick
Active Member
I inherently dislike the use of "Innovators" and "Early Adopters", etc.
Simply having more disposable income doesn't make one more "innovative" than another. Nor should being financially priced-out of a product mean you're not a "adopter" of a new idea or technology. But I understand given the "definitions" of this model they fit your opinion of what an "Innovator" is.
I don't think they fit your definition of "Early Adopter", however. Mainly because Early Adopters and Innovators account for only 16% of the marketplace. And even with 400,000 reservations and the already ordered/sold Teslas, they don't amount to anywhere near 16% of vehicle sales.
So I think everyone pre-ordering the Model 3 falls into the Early Adopter category. In 50 years, the current number of Tesla owners + reservation-holders will make up a small fraction of Tesla and EV owners. And
alseTrick
Active Member
So are the Nissan Cube and Scion xB hatchbacks? Because I'd always considered them a little too big/boxy/minature-SUV to be a "hatchback".
I guess with some of these vehicles they blur the lines.
I wanted to share with you my experience, as my guess is others had the same issues as I did. I reserved mine in London on vacation(**Side point***for USA delivery before the USA stores opened so where am in in the Queue??). When I clicked on the internal website to purchase it didn't go the first time. So we clicked "Go" a second time and it turned out I had 2 orders and 2 reservations. It took some weeks for me to cancel my second reservation and I kept 1. If this happened to me, I am sure it happened to others. 12k (cancellation/correction) is not that much in my opinion. I believe as they get closer to production and after the 2nd "reveal" they will be over 500k orders and I expect them to deliver/have orders for 1 million by the end of 2018. After that it depends on how good the car actually is, when the incentives run out and what their competitors are doing.
nexsuperne101
Closed
12,200 people didn't read the small print. We all knew that the Model 3 wasn't going to come out next week, or next year. It was going to be at least a 2 year wait. My money is down, and I will wait patiently for the best car to be delivered. There are other lesser brands with uglier cars that I can buy now, but that would be crazy.
ZachShahan
Active Member
ZachShahan
Active Member
Actually, EV sales are still under 1% of car sales, which would mean we're still in the innovator's segment.
It's easy to input your credit card number and hit submit. I think we will see more cancelations as people who may be stretching their budgets or encounter life events that need the $1000 freed up cancel their reservations. Also, like many of you have said the base price is $35,000 but when people start to see the price of the M3 they really want we will see even more. That being said that first 100,000 will probably hold the lowest cancellation rates.
Genshi
Member
I think this pretty much nails it. I'm in the minority when I say this, but I would expect a 15-35% cancellation rate overall, partly hinging on the rebates available. Not necessarily because people don't like the car, but because fiscally that $35k is right at the edge for a lot of people. $27,500 is much more plausible for a lot of folks.
Chopr147
Active Member
At least 15%, I agree. IDK what % ordered 2 Model 3's but I can see many of those cancelling one as well. I see myself as 260,000 minus say half foreign making me in the 130,000 range. I also agree the first 100,000 will have a lower % of cancellations. I would be interested to know how many actually buy the base model w/o add-ons.
Agreed, but when Tesla does Part 2 of the Model 3 reveal I am expecting a significant increase in reservations such that there will be over a half million by the time production starts.
Exactly. The average price of car in the U.S. was said to be just under $35,000 on January of this year:
Kelley Blue Book Press Releases
$35,000 makes the M3 competitive, not only at the price point but because it should also turn out to be a great car. Of course, the 'icing on the cake' are the federal and potential state tax credits. Without these, the price of the car without options no longer has an edge on other mainstream brands. Then come the necessary extras and needs like perhaps a garage, electricians, wall chargers, etc., only adding to the tab. Some reservation holders then start wondering how their M3 will get to the nearest service center several hundred miles away. Many other considerations as well.
I'm starting to see disconcerting statements like; "At least I'll probably get $3,750 back." And if that goes away? What then? Are we cancelling the reservation and back to buying ICE? Needing and wanting a new car is very often an impulsive purchase. The good news is there is still plenty of time to cancel the reservation. This isn't like the 'Three day cooling off period' offered for contracts in most states. People have plenty of time to consider releasing their reservation. "And that's a good thing" as Martha would say.
For the Model S introduction they said cancellations of early reservations when they asked people to finalize were about 10-15%. But that doesn't count people who cancelled earlier. I know for my reservation there were over 12 thousand people that reserved before me, but I got about car 5800 (not including signatures). At that stage they had already shipped the 60's, but people with lower reservation numbers who wanted the 40, coil suspension or multi-coat red would still have been delayed after me.
In any case for the 3 I bet new reservations will outnumber cancellations going forward.
In any case for the 3 I bet new reservations will outnumber cancellations going forward.
Tesla probably has a lot more ability to reach people that are used to lower price tiers than the 35k average.
For instance in a 2015 survey, the average premium people paid for an S vs. their previous car was 80%.
In that same survey, 89% of owners said they would still buy an S if the tax credit went away. So putting the two pieces together, affordability could very well be a consideration - the purchase was a big increase from the previous one and the taxpayer gift mattered to at least 11% of them.
FloridaJohn
Member
The one thing we don't know is how many of those cars had a lower base price and were "optioned" up to $35k. Of course, if the Model 3 has a lot of content at the base price, that will work in Tesla's favor, but my guess is that the Model 3 is an "above average car" in terms of sales price.
If someone can get a car with a base price of $25k and add $10k in options to get to $35k, that's one thing. If the Model 3 starts at $35k and doesn't include everything they want for that price, it is unlikely they will buy it. This is still going to be an expensive car.
Another way to look at it is that the average new car price might be $35K, but Elon said he expected the average Model 3 to be $42K.
