Tesla Supercharger network

[Cottonwood]

Below is a plot of Supercharger Openings by Month since Jan 2014. The 76 openings in the first quarter provide good hope of doubling the number of Supercharger Sites this year; 333 is only a little more than 4x76=304.

Opening progress has slowed down everywhere this quarter, but mostly in the Asia-Pacific region and the least in North America.


Total openings for the first quarter of 2015 were:

• 42 — North America
• 19 — Europe
• 15 — Asia/Pacific
• 76 — Earth

Average monthly opening rates for the first quarter were:

• 14.0 — North America
• 6.33 — Europe
• 5.00 — Asia/Pacific
• 25.3 — Earth

 

[Robert.Boston]

Picky point, but the Dedham MA site has now received its permits.

 

[ggies07]

Not sure if this is too generic of a thread to put this in, but did anyone see this video and hear what JB said about paying a fee in the future?

In the future, of course, I think it will make sense to phase in some financial transaction....

So we know Elon has said the network will be free even for Model 3 owners and JB be says this phase in would happen after a million cars....so it seems they have had discussions in private about when to flip the fee on.

Skip to around 13:20.

 

[dirkhh]

Not sure if this is too generic of a thread to put this in, but did anyone see this video and hear what JB said about paying a fee in the future?



So we know Elon has said the network will be free even for Model 3 owners and JB be says this phase in would happen after a million cars....so it seems they have had discussions in private about when to flip the fee on.

It's a more than hour long video... would you have a hint at which time stamp he says that?
I'd love to get more context - I believe existing owners have been told this would be free for the life of the car, so this would have to be for new owners only, and only after they change that language.
Maybe the Model 3 language on super charging will be different?

 

[ggies07]

sorry, meant to put that in, will now. It's around 13:20.

 

[dirkhh]

sorry, meant to put that in, will now. It's around 13:20.

Thanks. So yeah, he seems to say that this "future" will happen after they shipped a million cars or so... but I think his statement is too vague to be able to draw conclusions what would happen for the existing customers.
Interesting nonetheless.

 

[ggies07]

Thanks. So yeah, he seems to say that this "future" will happen after they shipped a million cars or so... but I think his statement is too vague to be able to draw conclusions what would happen for the existing customers.
Interesting nonetheless.

yeah, it was a slight one-off comment, but I wanted to see if anyone else caught that. I know things change and so the possibility off a free network for every single Tesla customer was always up and down for me, but it will be interesting to see the psychological affects this will have on the customers that are in the next round of production/deliveries when the time comes. I would not be happy, haha, so it makes me want to get my Model 3 as quick as possible.

But he did say they could hit a million by 2020, so not that far off in the future.......

 

[Robert.Boston]

Last July Tesla announced that it delivered more than 1 GWh of power through its superchargers. In round numbers that's $150,000. On an annual basis, that's about $40/car/year. At a million cars, Tesla would have a cost of about $40 MM for Supercharger power. If Tesla is really selling 500k units/year in 2020, its gross revenue would be in excess of $25 B. $40 MM is a rounding error in that.

I think Tesla will do better financially and have happier customers selling life-of-car Supercharging access for a fixed fee, as it does today. It eliminates billing hassles and requires no retrofit of existing SC to implement a billing system (though the car itself could handle the metering and reporting). More importantly it takes advantage of the "gym membership" foible, namely that we are predisposed to imagine that we will use something far more often than we do.

A counter-argument is that the only way to keep Superchargers from being swamped is to put a price on them. People have a hard time not using something that is FREE!!. It amazes to read of Model S owners who haven't installed at-home charging because they live close to a FREE!! Supercharger.

 

[nwdiver]

Last July Tesla announced that it delivered more than 1 GWh of power through its superchargers. In round numbers that's $150,000. On an annual basis, that's about $40/car/year. At a million cars, Tesla would have a cost of about $40 MM for Supercharger power. If Tesla is really selling 500k units/year in 2020, its gross revenue would be in excess of $25 B. $40 MM is a rounding error in that.

I think Tesla will do better financially and have happier customers selling life-of-car Supercharging access for a fixed fee, as it does today. It eliminates billing hassles and requires no retrofit of existing SC to implement a billing system (though the car itself could handle the metering and reporting). More importantly it takes advantage of the "gym membership" foible, namely that we are predisposed to imagine that we will use something far more often than we do.

A counter-argument is that the only way to keep Superchargers from being swamped is to put a price on them. People have a hard time not using something that is FREE!!. It amazes to read of Model S owners who haven't installed at-home charging because they live close to a FREE!! Supercharger.

I would expect those use patterns to change with the model 3; The demographic that buys the Model 3 will be SIGNIFICANTLY different from the one that buys the Model S. Saving $15/hr sitting at a SC is silly if you make $70/hr @ work... but not if you only make $20/hr. I agree that SC cost should stay fixed @ $2k... the falling cost of solar should compensate for the increased use of superchargers/car. If congestion becomes an issue I think it would be a better idea to set a limit on supercharger use... like the SC near your home can only be used ~5x/month... after that you need to call service and ask them to unlock it for you. Put some barriers up to discourage abuse.

I should have taken a picture... I stopped by a free Volta station near San Fran and there was a line!.... people waiting to get a free charge @7kW! I wouldn't be surprised of the Model 3 uses SCs >5x more per car than the S.

 

[dirkhh]

Last July Tesla announced that it delivered more than 1 GWh of power through its superchargers. In round numbers that's $150,000. On an annual basis, that's about $40/car/year. At a million cars, Tesla would have a cost of about $40 MM for Supercharger power. If Tesla is really selling 500k units/year in 2020, its gross revenue would be in excess of $25 B. $40 MM is a rounding error in that.

I think Tesla will do better financially and have happier customers selling life-of-car Supercharging access for a fixed fee, as it does today. It eliminates billing hassles and requires no retrofit of existing SC to implement a billing system (though the car itself could handle the metering and reporting). More importantly it takes advantage of the "gym membership" foible, namely that we are predisposed to imagine that we will use something far more often than we do.

A counter-argument is that the only way to keep Superchargers from being swamped is to put a price on them. People have a hard time not using something that is FREE!!. It amazes to read of Model S owners who haven't installed at-home charging because they live close to a FREE!! Supercharger.

$40/car/year is definitely a rounding error. But that's just the cost of energy. The question that I think we don't have enough data to answer is "do the people that you would discourage from taking advantage of the FREE resource cause enough additional load to the supercharger network that you'd have to build more chargers?"... then the cost per car / year goes up quite a bit (actually, I haven't done the spreadsheet on this one... I may be overestimating the cost of building new supercharger stations).

Either way the more cars you sell, the more the few people abusing the system should disappear in the noise. But I do see the argument that a nominal payment might discourage some unwanted behavior.

 

[Lloyd]

I'd hate to the $40/year be spread as the cost of supercharging per car. This reflects ONLY the electricity charge. You also have:

1. Demand charges
2. Equipment
3. Installation
4. Maintenance and repair
5. Ground lease (if any)
6. Taxes

 

[RiverBrick]

I'd hate to the $40/year be spread as the cost of supercharging per car. This reflects ONLY the electricity charge. You also have:

1. Demand charges
2. Equipment
3. Installation
4. Maintenance and repair
5. Ground lease (if any)
6. Taxes

There also may be

7. Permitting
8. Insurance

 

[Benz]

Update including March 22nd, 2015:

North America
2012: 0 + 0 + 2 + 7 = 9
2013: 0 + 2 + 11 + 28 = 41
2014: 32 + 16 + 19 + 35 = 102
2015: 39 = 39
Total: 9 + 41 + 102 + 39 = 191

Europe
2013: 0 + 0 + 6 + 8 = 14
2014: 0 + 10 + 45 + 54 = 109
2015: 19 = 19
Total: 14 + 109 + 19 = 142

Asia Pacific (Currently: China, Japan, Australia)
2014: 0 + 3 + 16 + 39 = 58
2015: 14 = 14
Total: 58 + 14 = 72

Global total: 191 + 142 + 72 = 405

2012 Global total: 9 + 0 + 0 = 9
2013 Global total: 41 + 14 + 0 = 55
2014 Global total: 102 + 109 + 58 = 269
2015 Global total so far: 39 + 19 + 14 = 72

Q1 2013 total: 0 + 0 + 0 = 0
Q2 2013 total: 2 + 0 + 0 = 2
Q3 2013 total: 11 + 6 + 0 = 17
Q4 2013 total: 28 + 8 + 0 = 36

Q1 2014 total: 32 + 0 + 0 = 32
Q2 2014 total: 16 + 10 + 3 = 29
Q3 2014 total: 19 + 45 + 16 = 80
Q4 2014 total: 35 + 54 + 39 = 128

First half of 2014: 32 + 29 = 61
Second half of 2014: 80 + 128 = 208

Q1 2015 so far: 39 + 19 + 14 = 72 (in 81 days)

"A little less than 1 new live Supercharger station per day"
That looks like the going average these days. And that still is extraordinary progress.

Update including April 7th, 2015:

North America
2012: 0 + 0 + 2 + 7 = 9
2013: 0 + 2 + 11 + 28 = 41
2014: 32 + 16 + 19 + 35 = 102
2015: 43 = 43
Total: 9 + 41 + 102 + 43 = 195

Europe
2013: 0 + 0 + 6 + 8 = 14
2014: 0 + 10 + 45 + 54 = 109
2015: 20 = 20
Total: 14 + 109 + 20 = 143

Asia Pacific (Currently: China, Japan, Australia)
2014: 0 + 3 + 16 + 39 = 58
2015: 17 = 17
Total: 58 + 17 = 75

Global total: 195 + 143 + 75 = 413

2012 Global total: 9 + 0 + 0 = 9
2013 Global total: 41 + 14 + 0 = 55
2014 Global total: 102 + 109 + 58 = 269
2015 Global total so far: 43 + 20 + 17 = 80

Q1 2013 total: 0 + 0 + 0 = 0
Q2 2013 total: 2 + 0 + 0 = 2
Q3 2013 total: 11 + 6 + 0 = 17
Q4 2013 total: 28 + 8 + 0 = 36

Q1 2014 total: 32 + 0 + 0 = 32
Q2 2014 total: 16 + 10 + 3 = 29
Q3 2014 total: 19 + 45 + 16 = 80
Q4 2014 total: 35 + 54 + 39 = 128

First half of 2014: 32 + 29 = 61
Second half of 2014: 80 + 128 = 208

Q1 2015 total: 42 + 19 + 16 = 77
Q2 2015 so far: 1 + 1 + 1 = 3 (in 7 days)

"A little less than 1 new live Supercharger station per day"
That looks like the going average these days. And that still is extraordinary progress.

 

[Kevin Harney]

AFAIK TM opened 79 superchargers world wide in Q12015. How does that stack up to what was projected at the beginning of the year when the new maps came out ? Was 320 the goal for 2015 ?

 

[Cottonwood]

AFAIK TM opened 79 superchargers world wide in Q12015. How does that stack up to what was projected at the beginning of the year when the new maps came out ? Was 320 the goal for 2015 ?

See my post at Tesla Supercharger network - Page 624

I came up with 76 sites opened in Q12015 using Supercharge.Info. Of course, I look at Supercharge.Info now, and the number looks like 77.

At any rate, Supercharge.Info and the Tesla MotorsSupercharger Page both have 415 as the world wide total for open Supercharger sites today!

Supercharge.Info had 333 sites world wide at the end of 2014. With 77 opened in Q1, 333 for the year looks very doable.

 

[Kevin Harney]

See my post at Tesla Supercharger network - Page 624

I came up with 76 sites opened in Q12015 using Supercharge.Info. Of course, I look at Supercharge.Info now, and the number looks like 77.

At any rate, Supercharge.Info and the Tesla MotorsSupercharger Page both have 415 as the world wide total for open Supercharger sites today!

I saw that when you posted it. Great chart. What I was looking for is the number expected in 2015 at the beginning to compare actual progress to projected. I know someone counted the dots when the first new maps came out and I read it but just looking for those numbers again. Is the 333 you reference that number ?

 

[GRA]

I saw that when you posted it. Great chart. What I was looking for is the number expected in 2015 at the beginning to compare actual progress to projected. I know someone counted the dots when the first new maps came out and I read it but just looking for those numbers again. Is the 333 you reference that number ?

I haven't been tracking the world-wide numbers, but have for the U.S. Tesla had 144 (counting the double sites only once) at the end of 2014, and projected 291 at the end of 2015, an increase of 147 needing them to complete an average of 12.25/month. They had done 25 by the end of February so were on track, but fell well short in March (8 on the map, plus Effingham and Riviera Beach which weren't, and the latter still isn't). So far this month they're well off the pace they need, and this is beginning to look like both 2013 and 2014 with early burst and then a quick tapering off. Let's hope they will finally realize that they need to stop over-promising and under-delivering, and meet their own forecasts, or at least not fall 33% or so short as they did last year in the U.S.

 

[cpa]

I haven't been tracking the world-wide numbers, but have for the U.S. Tesla had 144 (counting the double sites only once) at the end of 2014, and projected 291 at the end of 2015, an increase of 147 needing them to complete an average of 12.25/month. They had done 25 by the end of February so were on track, but fell well short in March (8 on the map, plus Effingham and Riviera Beach which weren't, and the latter still isn't). So far this month they're well off the pace they need, and this is beginning to look like both 2013 and 2014 with early burst and then a quick tapering off. Let's hope they will finally realize that they need to stop over-promising and under-delivering, and meet their own forecasts, or at least not fall 33% or so short as they did last year in the U.S.

Yes, I noticed the same thing, and was thinking that the past might be prologue. Right now, there are 8 US Superchargers under construction and 13 with permits. These numbers have not changed by much the past two weeks. Granted, there might be one or two stealth Superchargers under construction, and another one or two on a fast track for permitting and completion, but it seems that by June 1 there will be fewer than 160 US Superchargers up and running.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Supercharger construction definitely ebbs and flows with the seasons. There seems to be a year-end push that spills over into Jan/Feb. Last year the pace took a sharp notch up in mid-summer. We'll see if that's a pattern.

 

[Cottonwood]

Yes, I noticed the same thing, and was thinking that the past might be prologue. Right now, there are 8 US Superchargers under construction and 13 with permits. These numbers have not changed by much the past two weeks. Granted, there might be one or two stealth Superchargers under construction, and another one or two on a fast track for permitting and completion, but it seems that by June 1 there will be fewer than 160 US Superchargers up and running.

I think that we are seeing a Q2 slow down, but the number of openings should pick up in the summer and second half of the year.

You are a little off on the number of U.S. Supercharger Sites. See Supercharge.Info; there are currently 181 Supercharger Sites open in the U.S. and 196 in North America.