Tesla Supercharger network

[Cottonwood]

Supercharger Counts and Install Rates?

Here are the current stats for North America (so far, only U.S.A):

• 49 Superchargers online today.
• 12 Superchargers installed in December (so far).
• Per Teslawiki Superchargers Page, 23 known, under-construction Superchargers. 49 + 23 = 72 Superchargers online plus construction spotted.
• 89 total Superchargers "Coming Soon" per Tesla Motors Supercharger Page. That leaves 17 locations, either not started or not found.
• I'll let someone else count the dots for the 2014 page total.

OK, its time for the TMC wizards to go out on a limb and make some predictions. Let's see how well we can predict Tesla after watching so carefully. I will put my predictions over at Grand Junction, CO Supercharger - Page 2 so I don't bias your answers too soon, and will cross post here later.

1. Will there be any more Superchargers coming online this year? Will Tesla try to have 50 or more online by the end of 2013?
2. How many Superchargers will be put online in January?
3. Will Tesla continue the current rate of installs, pause for a little after the "Elon Route" push, or keep ramping up the install rate?
4. When will the "Elon Route" be finished? I define "finished" as Elon being able to make it across the U.S. on Superchargers only with his claimed 10 (or so) hours total charge time.
5. What other predictions would you like to make for 2014?

 

[AlMc]

1. Will there be any more Superchargers coming online this year? Will Tesla try to have 50 or more online by the end of 2013?
2. How many Superchargers will be put online in January?
3. Will Tesla continue the current rate of installs, pause for a little after the "Elon Route" push, or keep ramping up the install rate?
4. When will the "Elon Route" be finished? I define "finished" as Elon being able to make it across the U.S. on Superchargers only with his claimed 10 (or so) hours total charge time.
5. What other predictions would you like to make for 2014?

1. No more in 2013
2. Yes, build rate will continue at one new one every 2-3 days (as per Elon's statement at Dell conference)
3. See #2
4. By Easter/Spring Break
5. Elon will make the trip in a Model X. Great introduction of the vehicle and better way to travel with the children.

 

[wycolo]

Sorry, now I *have* to be at an SC to see a running X Model. And shake the driver's hand.
--

 

[FredTMC]

1. No more in 2013
2. Yes, build rate will continue at one new one every 2-3 days (as per Elon's statement at Dell conference)
3. See #2
4. By Easter/Spring Break
5. Elon will make the trip in a Model X. Great introduction of the vehicle and better way to travel with the children.

Wow. That would be awesome if Elon made the trip across country in model X. I hadn't considered that. Makes sense. That would get tons of free press

 

[Cottonwood]

Nice predictions. I like the MX prediction; makes a lot of sense! Here is my list:

1. I don't think that it really matters if more Superchargers go online or not in December, but our country has a funny avoidance of the number 13. I predict that there will be 2+ more Superchargers put online in the end of December or none to avoid making the December total 13.
2. I predict 15 Superchargers going online in January 2014.
3. I think that Tesla will average 12-15 Supercharger installs a month in North America for 2014. There will be some ups and downs and perhaps a little pause after the "Elon Route" is finished, but 140-180 new Superchargers in 2014 is my (hopeful) prediction.
4. The "Elon Route" will be finished in February 2014 for his trip in March. The only big gaps are the California desert (could use Vegas), Holbrook, AZ (it will start soon), and Western PA (I think it's started, but not found). There are just too many planning boards, utilities, and weather to finish it in January, but Elon will demand February so he is not embarrassed in March.
5. My further prediction (perhaps hope) is that Tesla will continue and improve their "Destination Charging" program to get more and more HPWC's out there to fill in the routes off of the Supercharger grid and to provide a safety net for failed Superchargers.

 

[LakeForest]

Supercharger Counts and Install Rates?

1. Will there be any more Superchargers coming online this year? Will Tesla try to have 50 or more online by the end of 2013?
2. How many Superchargers will be put online in January?
3. Will Tesla continue the current rate of installs, pause for a little after the "Elon Route" push, or keep ramping up the install rate?
4. When will the "Elon Route" be finished? I define "finished" as Elon being able to make it across the U.S. on Superchargers only with his claimed 10 (or so) hours total charge time.
5. What other predictions would you like to make for 2014?

1. No, their done for the year
2. 20ish, with such a buildup of nearly complete stations there should be at least 20 opened, unless the testing company is completely incompetent. Four in wisconsin are getting tested the first week of Jan for example.
3. They will install about 20/month from now on. With the contractors getting experienced they will be able to construct them much more quickly, assuming that is the bottleneck. Also, getting the contractors out of the miserable Wisconsin etc. cold, where they had to erect party tents, will surely speed up the process.
4. All done by the end of January
5. 2/3 the 2015 map will be completed by December 2014, 180 kw systems will be introduced, but a 85 will only be able to accept 140kw ish, speeding up charging if both stalls are in use(Hawthorne) or each stall at some of the very busy locations will be given its own SC cabinet.
Also, I expect there will be SC install service available soon, either for police departments, cab companies, or restaurants (in cali most likely) upset they did not receive the initial station. Will have a 10-15% margin on installs. Tesla will introduce a "charging ambassador" program, assigning an employee at the local service centers/stores to spend ten+ hours a week on getting HPWC's installed where there customers want them.

 

[purplewalt]

1. I agree with Cottonwood: either two or zero, I am leaning toward two before Midnight ET, Tuesday, Dec. 31. Heck, those locations might already be done, and someone just needs to flip a switch (officially).
2. Since there are so many SpC locations that (have been positively identified) are fully under construction and several being nearly completed, a minimum of 20 in January seems very doable.
Easy to see 12 to 15 new SpC locations per month the rest of the year, any month with 20 (after January 2014) would be an outstanding achievement.
Unless the weather turns really foul and that in turn delays some completions and openings.
Holidays are nearly over, I expect most everyone to hit the ground running Jan. 2, really hitting it hard Jan 6 (first full work week) onward.
3. There are so many moving pieces to each SpC location beside just the physical pieces of Construction (that we can see and visualize/relate to).
I sense that thru the first week in March there will continue to be a high rate of completions, enough that "Elon's route" is fully completed by March 7.
I don't anticipate any slowing of pace from the current construction trend until they hit 100.
A little celebration, then right back to work.
4. March 7, 2014, amount of Elon's "charge time" will be in excess of 14 hours.
5. **Elon's trip might be in a Model X, or perhaps an AWD Model S. One driver plus 5 kids entails a lot of luggage for a 6-day trip, so my gut tells me the Model X will be the vehicle.
**2014 Detroit Auto show in January will display updated Beta version of Model X and a first glimpse of Gen 3 prototype.
**Production and deliveries for both Model S and X (combined) will break 50K for 2014.
**After the development work for German and EU Superchargers is brought to next level, that data will be used to refine and develop new stations for other EU and Domestic locations. Several highly used SpC stations will be retrofitted with newer version/much higher-output ESVEs to alleviate charging and waiting times.

 

[JRP3]

I hope no one at Tesla gives even one second of thought about the ridiculous superstition regarding the number 13.
I doubt Elon will do his trip in an X, and I doubt we'll see a G3 anywhere in 2014.
X probably won't be shipping till the end of 2014, and only in low quantities, so I doubt the 50K number will be hit.
I'm not sure the charge port can handle much higher SC output, doesn't it already get warm at 120kW levels?

 

[Kevin Harney]

Nice predictions. I like the MX prediction; makes a lot of sense! Here is my list:

1. I don't think that it really matters if more Superchargers go online or not in December, but our country has a funny avoidance of the number 13. I predict that there will be 2+ more Superchargers put online in the end of December or none to avoid making the December total 13.
2. I predict 15 Superchargers going online in January 2014.
3. I think that Tesla will average 12-15 Supercharger installs a month in North America for 2014. There will be some ups and downs and perhaps a little pause after the "Elon Route" is finished, but 140-180 new Superchargers in 2014 is my (hopeful) prediction.
4. The "Elon Route" will be finished in February 2014 for his trip in March. The only big gaps are the California desert (could use Vegas), Holbrook, AZ (it will start soon), and Western PA (I think it's started, but not found). There are just too many planning boards, utilities, and weather to finish it in January, but Elon will demand February so he is not embarrassed in March.
5. My further prediction (perhaps hope) is that Tesla will continue and improve their "Destination Charging" program to get more and more HPWC's out there to fill in the routes off of the Supercharger grid and to provide a safety net for failed Superchargers.

Western PA is found. Cranberry Township.

- - - Updated - - -

I hope no one at Tesla gives even one second of thought about the ridiculous superstition regarding the number 13.
I doubt Elon will do his trip in an X, and I doubt we'll see a G3 anywhere in 2014.
X probably won't be shipping till the end of 2014, and only in low quantities, so I doubt the 50K number will be hit.
I'm not sure the charge port can handle much higher SC output, doesn't it already get warm at 120kW levels?

Franz indicated Gen III will debut at Detroit Auto Show early 2015.

 

[Joel]

Supercharger Counts and Install Rates?

Here are the current stats for North America (so far, only U.S.A):

• 49 Superchargers online today.
• 12 Superchargers installed in December (so far).
• Per Teslawiki Superchargers Page, 23 known, under-construction Superchargers. 49 + 23 = 72 Superchargers online plus construction spotted.
• 89 total Superchargers "Coming Soon" per Tesla Motors Supercharger Page. That leaves 17 locations, either not started or not found.
• I'll let someone else count the dots for the 2014 page total.

OK, its time for the TMC wizards to go out on a limb and make some predictions. Let's see how well we can predict Tesla after watching so carefully. I will put my predictions over at Grand Junction, CO Supercharger - Page 2 so I don't bias your answers too soon, and will cross post here later.

1. Will there be any more Superchargers coming online this year? Will Tesla try to have 50 or more online by the end of 2013?
2. How many Superchargers will be put online in January?
3. Will Tesla continue the current rate of installs, pause for a little after the "Elon Route" push, or keep ramping up the install rate?
4. When will the "Elon Route" be finished? I define "finished" as Elon being able to make it across the U.S. on Superchargers only with his claimed 10 (or so) hours total charge time.
5. What other predictions would you like to make for 2014?

1. Number 50 went live today: Madison Wisconsin: Madison Supercharger | Tesla Motors

 

[Cottonwood]

Western PA is found. Cranberry Township.

Cranberry Township, PA is found just like Holbrook, AZ is found. We have reports of that being a Supercharger location, but don't have any reports or pictures of construction being started with an address. It will be nice to get pictures of both of these starting with pictures.

Therefore, I predict that the Golden Supercharger dedication that will complete the cross-country route will happen in February.

 

[demetri]

I count 51 on Tesla SC page, besides Madison WI what other site went live? Or am I not counting correctly?

 

[Cottonwood]

I count 51 on Tesla SC page, besides Madison WI what other site went live? Or am I not counting correctly?

I don't think Madison is on the list yet. Remember that Darien and Milford, CT are listed twice, north and south, but are only counted once. Does that bring you back to 49?

 

[Zythryn]

1. Number 50 went live today: Madison Wisconsin: Madison Supercharger | Tesla Motors

The we page is live. However, no links from the main supercharger page.
Do we have any on site reports that it is actually on and available?

 

[demetri]

I don't think Madison is on the list yet. Remember that Darien and Milford, CT are listed twice, north and south, but are only counted once. Does that bring you back to 49?

Yes, you are right back to 49. Madison is not listed yet, should be on the site soon, thanks. Nice to see 50 this year, not bad at all. We should see a few more by the end of this week.

 

[Joel]

The we page is live. However, no links from the main supercharger page.
Do we have any on site reports that it is actually on and available?

We will have an answer today: Wisconsin Supercharger Discussion Tracking - Page 21

 

[Sgt Barone]

It looks like Murdo, SD, St. Augustine, FL, Gallup, NM, and Onalaska, WI (looks like it's going to be called La Crosse) have pages under construction on the TM site, because they all prompt me with the "Sign into Tesla" page. Looks like they're all very close.

 

[jvonbokel]

Speaking of it would be nice if Tesla was more careful, it looks like the supercharger bar is still scaled to 200 mph instead of 170 mph. This give a false impression of how much faster supercharging is than a 30 or 40 amp 1-phase AC connection, for which the bars are scaled correctly.

It looks like it's scaled correctly to me. It's just an odd scale, with each horizontal bar representing 17 mi of rated range, whereas I guess they used to represent 20 mi of ideal range.

 

[jvonbokel]

1. Will there be any more Superchargers coming online this year? Will Tesla try to have 50 or more online by the end of 2013?
2. How many Superchargers will be put online in January?
3. Will Tesla continue the current rate of installs, pause for a little after the "Elon Route" push, or keep ramping up the install rate?
4. When will the "Elon Route" be finished? I define "finished" as Elon being able to make it across the U.S. on Superchargers only with his claimed 10 (or so) hours total charge time.
5. What other predictions would you like to make for 2014?

our country has a funny avoidance of the number 13

Tesla will continue and improve their "Destination Charging" program

180 kw systems will be introduced, but a 85 will only be able to accept 140kw ish, speeding up charging if both stalls are in use or each stall at some of the very busy locations will be given its own SC cabinet

1. It looks like one more in WI will go live today or tomorrow. I don't think superstition surrounding "13" will come into play. If anything, they might be pushing towards a nice round "50" for an end of year total.
2. Something like 12-15 in both January and February (about what we've seen in December), but with potential weather impacts in certain areas.
3. I think things will slow down a bit after the LA-to-NY route is finished, to something around 8 per month (100 per year).
4. Agree w/Cottonwood, that the route will be done in February, and Elon will drive it in March.
5a. Also I second Cottonwood's prediction about Destination Charging. It seems like there's some circumstantial evidence that supports a push in that area.
5b. Furhtermore, I really like LakeForest's idea of increasing Supercharger power, even beyond that which a single car can take, just for robustness and to support a better charge rate on the 2nd car. European supercharging @135kW proves that can be done, and reports of ~105-110kW on an S60 suggest that an S85/P85 is capable of ~150kW. I'd like to see 180-200kW* charging cabinets start showing up sometime in 2014. That seems like a much cheaper way to address Supercharger congestion (increase turnover) than adding additional stalls, albeit potentially not as effective.

*It would be excessive to build them as high as 300kW, because the full capacity would so rarely be used. Even at 90-120kW, the tapering begins pretty early, and presumably at 135-150kW, it would taper even earlier. Perhaps at some point Tesla could generate a recommended stall upon approach, taking into account battery size (60/85/?) and current SoC.

 

[aronth5]

I believe Elon's trip is very important since it will provide him with the real world experience of long distance supercharging. Hard to think that he won't run into a few challenges while charging.
I would not be surprised if Tesla makes changes in their supercharging strategy once he completes his journey. (and recovers from driving with his children:smile

I think Tesla will continue with their recent aggressive rollout in 2014. 120-150 stations.