-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla Supercharger network
- Thread starter dsm363
- Start date
Benz
Active Member
On December 31st, 2014:
North America: 160
Europe: 100
Asia: 40
Total: 300
To get to those numbers we still need: 54 + 43 + 31 = 128 new Supercharger stations to go live in 138 days in 2014. That's almost 1 per day.
We both know that more than these numbers would be unrealistic. We should be very happy if we could get even close to these numbers, I think.
Maybe I'm overthinking this, but it seems to me that the only reason for European installations to matter to North America is if they fly the installation crew back and forth. Otherwise there shouldn't be any correlation other than the manufacturing of Superchargers.
cpa
Active Member
Benz, I certainly hope your prediction is true for North America! However, I am not as sanguine as you 
. There are 106 up and running with another 23 under construction or in the permitting phase. It looks like Oxnard and Indio will finally be in service in 3-6 weeks, but the permitting for El Centro and Manteca seems to be dragging on (maybe due to the lack of development of the surrounding shopping center at the sites.) I do not see those locations even being under construction by year-end.
We only have 4 1/2 months remaining in 2014. Under the most optimum of situations it takes (sorta an educated guess) about 4 weeks from start of construction to operational. There are so many variables (at least here in California) with connecting to the grid and getting the utilities to provide their hardware and approval to unexpected issues with trenching, that I do not foresee more than about 130 operational in North America by December 31. (I hope I am wrong!)
What I do see is that Tesla will redouble their efforts in the first half of 2015 for North America due to the rollout of the Model X, and I think Elon Musk will want three different coast-to-coast routes as well as two north-south routes (besides I5 and I95) to be able to handle the summer vacation travel plans of those families that bought an X. By early June of 2015, I submit that North America will have about 175-180 Supercharger spots.
. There are 106 up and running with another 23 under construction or in the permitting phase. It looks like Oxnard and Indio will finally be in service in 3-6 weeks, but the permitting for El Centro and Manteca seems to be dragging on (maybe due to the lack of development of the surrounding shopping center at the sites.) I do not see those locations even being under construction by year-end.We only have 4 1/2 months remaining in 2014. Under the most optimum of situations it takes (sorta an educated guess) about 4 weeks from start of construction to operational. There are so many variables (at least here in California) with connecting to the grid and getting the utilities to provide their hardware and approval to unexpected issues with trenching, that I do not foresee more than about 130 operational in North America by December 31. (I hope I am wrong!)
What I do see is that Tesla will redouble their efforts in the first half of 2015 for North America due to the rollout of the Model X, and I think Elon Musk will want three different coast-to-coast routes as well as two north-south routes (besides I5 and I95) to be able to handle the summer vacation travel plans of those families that bought an X. By early June of 2015, I submit that North America will have about 175-180 Supercharger spots.
Benz
Active Member
Correct.
Expansion of the Supercharger network happens simultaneously on each continent.
I believe there is a cap based on total spending to stay marginally profitable for each quarter. I don't know if all of a supercharger commissioning can be accounted as capex, but even at 100% capex, the expense at some point has measurable impact on the current quarter.
Cottonwood
Roadster#433, Model S#S37
I think that you are absolutely on point here. Supercharger installs are Capex, but probably amortized over something like 10 years, so 10% of the installed base does hit the bottom line year after year. Another limiting factor is the production line capacity for Supercharger Cabinets. I don't know what sort of production line Tesla has set up for these, but an install rate of 7 Supercharger sites per week and an average of 3 Supercharger Cabinets per site is 21 Supercharger Cabinets per week being made somewhere. That is a lot easier than 300 cars per week, but I bet the Supercharger Cabinet line is a lot less automated and does require care and good Quality Control (QC).
A last comment about a "crew" going here or there. This may happen occasionally, but as far as I know Tesla has a very complete set of construction plans that can be put out for bid to any competent, commercial general contractor. See Madison Construction Plans for an example of the detail in these plans. Of course, as a contractor has done a job or two they gain skill and experience that allows lower cost bids in the future. In addition, successful completion of one Supercharger Site gives Tesla more confidence in letting contracts to repeat contractors. However, please remember that the actual construction of Supercharger Sites is being done by independent contractors, not Tesla employees. There could be a lot of sites under construction at the same time by different contractors.
There can be considerable delay in various locations including planning boards at the beginning and utility connections at the end, but no matter what the delay is, if Tesla starts N sites every month and keeps all of those projects moving at whatever pace, then eventually N sites will start going live every month. The Brain Damage Factor (BDF) of dealing with a lot of planning boards in parallel, etc, may require more staff, but Tesla should be up to the challenge of that task.
In the near term, I am cheering for the I-90 route from Wyoming to Washington State and I-70 route from Kansas to Maryland for more East-West connectivity.
For N-S, a route that does not get a lot of attention, but I bet gets addressed soon is the Chicago to Florida route. They already have I-75 coming up to Chattanooga. If they just filled in the I-24 to I-57 route, all of those Chicago snow birds could migrate south to Florida in their Teslas very nicely.
Benz
Active Member
Benz, I certainly hope your prediction is true for North America! However, I am not as sanguine as you
We only have 4 1/2 months remaining in 2014. Under the most optimum of situations it takes (sorta an educated guess) about 4 weeks from start of construction to operational. There are so many variables (at least here in California) with connecting to the grid and getting the utilities to provide their hardware and approval to unexpected issues with trenching, that I do not foresee more than about 130 operational in North America by December 31. (I hope I am wrong!)
What I do see is that Tesla will redouble their efforts in the first half of 2015 for North America due to the rollout of the Model X, and I think Elon Musk will want three different coast-to-coast routes as well as two north-south routes (besides I5 and I95) to be able to handle the summer vacation travel plans of those families that bought an X. By early June of 2015, I submit that North America will have about 175-180 Supercharger spots.
The eventual true number of live Supercharger stations in North America on December 31st, 2014 must be somewhere inbetween 130 (your conservative guess) and 160 (my optimistic guess) then.
But somehow I think that in a period of 6 months (Q4 2014 - Q1 2015) a lot of new Supercharger stations will go live in North America, at a rate of about 10 or maybe even 15 per month.
Elon specifically mentioned that there is no spending/budget limit on building Superchargers. His mandate to the team was to spend the money as quickly as possible (on building them).
Benz
Active Member
The "2014" map of North America has 213 red dots on it, 199 in the US and 14 in Canada.
The "winter 2014-2015" map of Europe has 132 red dots on it.
The "soon" map of Asia has 17 red dots on it.
213 + 132 + 17 = 362
Currently there are 172 live Supercharger stations.
362 - 172 = 190
Delays are inevitable.
I definitely recall Elon stating this when he was in China for the initial deliveries but I'm not sure he has stated the same for North America/Europe.
On the other hand it wouldn't surprise me if he did. Does anyone have confirmation that Elon said the no spending/budget limit is world wide?
Cliff Hannel
Member
Hello Europe! EVTripPlanner has added chargers (and superchargers) in Europe and Metric support. Check out route energy planning, routing through superchargers and other features for planning EV road trips.
I'm annoyed by Tesla's focus on these east-west routes. They look great on maps, but I'm not convinced they serve the needs of the installed base as well as other options. The N-S routes, for example; there are plenty of people who road-trip to Florida from the mid-west, but many fewer who drive to Arizona.
The situation here in New England is severely under served. We have no Superchargers at all except along the south coast. Planned additions in central MA and Portsmouth NH are good starts, but still leave New Englanders with no links into snow country for this ski season, nor any links up to Quebec (or, from the Canadian perspective, with no links onto the Supercharger Highway). New England has a very high density of Model Ss per capita, based on my wiki map, but without the corresponding investment in Superchargers.
caddieo
Member
+1000! Glad to hear another voice in the wilderness with the same message. You have described not only my favorite route between FL and Chicago, but a route that I know is shared by other Chicagoans and upper Midwesterners. I have expressed similar views in other threads related to this and have even written ownership and the supercharger team at TM about this. It seems though that a parallel route may come to fruition over the next several months: Chicago to I-65>I-24>I-75. I used to take this but got tired of the traffic around Louisville and Indianapolis and so switched to I-57>I-24>I-75.
BTW I arrived in Chicago at 11:30 last night after leaving FL at 6:30 in the morning using I-95>I-10>I-75>I-24>I-57. Had to use my ICE. I did not want the hassle of looking for alternative charging sites in spite of Plugshare, nor did I want to lengthen the trip by going up the east coast and then cutting across.
Last edited:
Cottonwood
Roadster#433, Model S#S37
Yes, I-24 brings back a lot of memories for me. When I was 18 and 19, for summer jobs, I managed to get a union card and worked as a constructions laborer helping build I-24 as it came past my home town of Metropolis, lots of concrete and steel. It would be great to drive my Telsa on I-24 that I helped build so many years ago.
Even if it takes a while to get Superchargers on that route, someone in the area really needs to talk to the management at Harrah's Metropolis to get them on the Destination Charging program and put in some 80-Amp HPWC's.
Benz
Active Member
In the past 50 days (as from June 27th, 2014) we have seen in total 51 new Supercharger stations go live (North America + Europe + Asia).
caddieo
Member
So you're from Metropolis and you did some heavy lifting. I'd better start calling you Superman! :biggrin:
50 days, 51 SCs. Pretty impressive.
Though I don't have my MS yet, I have found that I can, from Nebraska, go to north to I90 or south to I70 and then go. I80, of course, will be wonderful to see next year.
And I have noticed the same issue with north/south here but since I can get to both the north and south corridors for me it is not too much of a problem.
I test drove an MS in Boston and did notice a paucity of SuperChargers and Service Centers north of Boston.
Though I don't have my MS yet, I have found that I can, from Nebraska, go to north to I90 or south to I70 and then go. I80, of course, will be wonderful to see next year.
And I have noticed the same issue with north/south here but since I can get to both the north and south corridors for me it is not too much of a problem.
I test drove an MS in Boston and did notice a paucity of SuperChargers and Service Centers north of Boston.
Last edited:
Similar threads
- Poll
