Tesla testing self driving in Arizona and Texas, not so much CA

[DanCar]

Tesla expands in-house Self-Driving testing to Phoenix - Electrek
From job postings electrek tells us that Tesla is testing self driving in Phoenix and Austin. From driverless testing disengagement reports in California we know that not so much testing by Tesla in California.

In my opinion this also points to where Tesla plans to first release level 3-5 driverless first: Arizona and or Texas.
What do you think?

 

[WinterX]

I know nothing other than I live in Austin and would love for TX to be first!

 

[diplomat33]

Tesla expands in-house Self-Driving testing to Phoenix - Electrek
From job postings electrek tells us that Tesla is testing self driving in Phoenix and Austin. From driverless testing disengagement reports in California we know that not so much testing by Tesla in California.

In my opinion this also points to where Tesla plans to first release level 3-5 driverless first: Arizona and or Texas.
What do you think?

I don't think it necessarily points to Tesla releasing driverless in AZ or TX first. We know Elon does not like CA. It could just be that Tesla is more interested in testing in AZ or TX where regulations are more lax.

So, if Tesla releases driverless in AZ or TX, will Tesla fans say it is because the weather is always nice (the FSD can't handle bad weather) like they criticize Waymo?

On a serious note, how would that work for Tesla? Would Tesla only allow Tesla owners in AZ or TX to use FSD without nags? Or would Tesla release driverless Tesla ride-hailing ala Waymo in AZ or TX?

 

[mikes_fsd]

I don't think it necessarily points to Tesla releasing driverless in AZ or TX first. We know Elon does not like CA. It could just be that Tesla is more interested in testing in AZ or TX where regulations are more lax.

So, if Tesla releases driverless in AZ or TX, will Tesla fans say it is because the weather is always nice (the FSD can't handle bad weather) like they criticize Waymo?

On a serious note, how would that work for Tesla? Would Tesla only allow Tesla owners in AZ or TX to use FSD without nags? Or would Tesla release driverless Tesla ride-hailing ala Waymo in AZ or TX?

Man you are something special!

If Tesla releases FSD in ANY state, they will not tell you when you can use the car or where in that state (but I am willing to bet money that they would also not limit you from taking that same car out of your state either -- and wont turn off FSD)

Waymo didn't just pick a desert sandbox with ~1" of rain per year, they also control when the cars go out and can corral all the "taxis" into a pen if they wanted to.
If Tesla tried to control "when you can use your car" that would be the end of FSD and possibly Tesla.

It really seems like some folks cannot see the massive chasm between what Tesla is doing and the "competition".

One is staunchly pro end user... when you can turn it on and who can buy their cars.
The others are locked down to their ODD as if their life depended on it.


Just the fact that 15 states already have FSD beta in public testing (non-employees) should demonstrate the breadth and depth of the chasm between Tesla and the competition.

 

[mikes_fsd]

Just the fact that 15 states already have FSD beta in public testing (non-employees) should demonstrate the breadth and depth of the chasm between Tesla and the competition.

Or to take the cynical view..
All Tesla competitors need to find out how Tesla can "HD Map" 15 states in such a short time.

 

[DanCar]

... but I am willing to bet money that they would also not limit you from taking that same car out of your state either -- and wont turn off FSD ...

O.k. I'll bet $20. Easy win, since FSD is illegal in some states, not illegal in others, and requires permits with testing history in some (CA). It is logical Tesla will take the path of least resistance.

 

[mikes_fsd]

O.k. I'll bet $20. Easy win, since FSD is illegal in some states, not illegal in others

FSD is a Tesla product which is marketed as a driver assist (on steroids - mind you).
Driver assist is legal in all states, some AG's will try to claim it is NOT driver assist, but that is a different story.

The wording for the bet: "Tesla will not turn off FSD for a car that has it enabled once it crosses a state line"?

 

[gaswalla]

FSD/AP is crippled in Europe... seems plausible that function will be limited 'as allowed by law' if it comes to that.. based on state regulations

 

[Daniel in SD]

FSD is a Tesla product which is marketed as a driver assist (on steroids - mind you).
Driver assist is legal in all states, some AG's will try to claim it is NOT driver assist, but that is a different story.

The wording for the bet: "Tesla will not turn off FSD for a car that has it enabled once it crosses a state line"?

Beta FSD is a prototype autonomous vehicle not a driver assist. It's absurd to claim otherwise IMO.

 

[mikes_fsd]

Beta FSD is a prototype autonomous vehicle not a driver assist. It's absurd to claim otherwise IMO.

Says who? You?

That is funny.

I am pretty darn sure it will be sold in the "Driver Assist" class, that is how they are not reporting all the beta user disengagements in California. That alone should make you think.

 

[mikes_fsd]

FSD/AP is crippled in Europe... seems plausible that function will be limited 'as allowed by law' if it comes to that.. based on state regulations

yes, the context is US.
EU has retarded rules around deriver assist to begin with.
For EU it would be -- if it is allowed to be sold in EU you can cross borders of all member countries.

 

[EVNow]

Beta FSD is a prototype autonomous vehicle not a driver assist. It's absurd to claim otherwise IMO.

City FSD is no more prototype autonomous vehicle than freeway NOA. This is what I've been saying for a long time - and Musk says the same thing in the old AI podcast interview.

Yes "march of the 9s" can make it completely autonomous, but noone knows how long thats going to take.

 

[DanCar]

..., but no one knows how long thats going to take.

Elon said recently he is very confident FSD will be enabled by end of next year in some jurisdiction(s). In the past 5 years he has said two years away. Now he is saying one year away. Will we go another 5 years with it being one year away? Then switch to 6 months away for a few more years?

 

[mikes_fsd]

Elon said recently he is very confident FSD will be enabled by end of next year in some jurisdiction(s).

He was speaking from a global POV.

I believe that based on how the Beta has been rolled out, that all of US will be treated like 1 jurisdiction until they get sued... then it will be dependent on what is the outcome of the lawsuit.

Again, this is just my guess at what will happen in US based on what we've seen Tesla do so far with Autopilot and the FSD Beta.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Elon said recently he is very confident FSD will be enabled by end of next year in some jurisdiction(s). In the past 5 years he has said two years away. Now he is saying one year away. Will we go another 5 years with it being one year away? Then switch to 6 months away for a few more years?

He was very confident it would be this past spring. Summer at the latest. Confidence has never been the issue.

 

[diplomat33]

Man you are something special!

If Tesla releases FSD in ANY state, they will not tell you when you can use the car or where in that state (but I am willing to bet money that they would also not limit you from taking that same car out of your state either -- and wont turn off FSD)

Waymo didn't just pick a desert sandbox with ~1" of rain per year, they also control when the cars go out and can corral all the "taxis" into a pen if they wanted to.
If Tesla tried to control "when you can use your car" that would be the end of FSD and possibly Tesla.

It really seems like some folks cannot see the massive chasm between what Tesla is doing and the "competition".

One is staunchly pro end user... when you can turn it on and who can buy their cars.
The others are locked down to their ODD as if their life depended on it.

Just the fact that 15 states already have FSD beta in public testing (non-employees) should demonstrate the breadth and depth of the chasm between Tesla and the competition.

Stop with the "Waymo is geofenced to a tiny desert sandbox" strawman. You know full well that Waymo is testing FSD in several States across the US, almost as many as Tesla, if you look at the map Waymo put out.

And yes, there is a massive chasm between Tesla and Waymo. Waymo has true driverless, Tesla does not. As Krafcik put it, the Waymo Driver is a complete replacement for a licensed human driver. Tesla's FSD is not.

 

[Daniel in SD]

City FSD is no more prototype autonomous vehicle than freeway NOA. This is what I've been saying for a long time - and Musk says the same thing in the old AI podcast interview.

Yes "march of the 9s" can make it completely autonomous, but noone knows how long thats going to take.

By that logic then there is no such thing as as a prototype autonomous vehicle. It's simply a driver assist system until it is deployed.

He was speaking from a global POV.

I believe that based on how the Beta has been rolled out, that all of US will be treated like 1 jurisdiction until they get sued... then it will be dependent on what is the outcome of the lawsuit.

Again, this is just my guess at what will happen in US based on what we've seen Tesla do so far with Autopilot and the FSD Beta.

No he is talking about regulatory approval. Waiting until every state approves autonomous vehicles or there is a nation wide standard would be silly. Arizona requires no regulatory approval, why would Tesla wait for regulatory approval in all 50 states? It's unlikely that anywhere else on earth will have rules as permissive as some states in the US. It's the beauty of federalism!
Uber was never sued when they were found to be illegally testing autonomous vehicles in California, the DMV simply pulled their vehicle registrations.

 

[82bert]

Stop with the "Waymo is geofenced to a tiny desert sandbox" strawman. You know full well that Waymo is testing FSD in several States across the US, almost as many as Tesla, if you look at the map Waymo put out.

And yes, there is a massive chasm between Tesla and Waymo. Waymo has true driverless, Tesla does not. As Krafcik put it, the Waymo Driver is a complete replacement for a licensed human driver. Tesla's FSD is not.

When you say “Waymo is testing FSD in several states across the US”, what do you mean by testing? I probably missed the link or map, but you’re saying they’re openly testing in various states on public roads?

I’ve seen multiple AZ videos now, but no other videos from other test locations.

 

[Mardak]

Tesla has been testing Autopilot in every state and worldwide for a long time now (as owners can activate on any street and collecting data and edge cases -- think of the different signs, road markings, signals used worldwide) to develop and improve "Level 2" FSD beta, which so far seems to be focused on the US but could work anywhere navigation unless restricted by regulations, e.g., UN/ECE r79.

So what is new or special about Arizona or Texas testing? One guess is something closer to Level 5, i.e., design intent to have no licensed human driver, and doing this outside of California avoids spending time on dealing with regulations that require additional permissions, tracking and reporting.

 

[diplomat33]

When you say “Waymo is testing FSD in several states across the US”, what do you mean by testing? I probably missed the link or map, but you’re saying they’re openly testing in various states on public roads?

I’ve seen multiple AZ videos now, but no other videos from other test locations.

By testing, I mean that Waymo has vehicles equipped with their FSD package, with a safety driver, that are driving around in autonomous mode on public roads, collecting data, refining the software etc... Those rides are not open to the public. They are strictly in-house testing. So we do not have videos of those drives.

Here is the map and info I am referring to. This is from the Waymo Safety Report released in Sept 2020:

Source: https://storage.googleapis.com/sdc-prod/v1/safety-report/2020-09-waymo-safety-report.pdf

PS: If you have not done so already, I would recommend reading the Safety Report. It gives great detail on all the testing Waymo does and how their FSD works.