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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 28, 2018.

  1. anthonyj

    anthonyj Stonks

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    Why not just buy puts at 3:55 and sell them next day at market open? Literally double your money everyday. On fridays you can even 20x your money
     
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  2. CorneliusXX

    CorneliusXX Member

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    Just arguing hyperbole with hyperbole. It's obviously not "as simple as that", if they miss a target because of supplier issues or short term manufacturing issues it's a completely different position compared to lack of demand. Stating 90k with without qualification is easy to refute with a lower number.
     
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  3. ruralectric

    ruralectric Member

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    Really appreciate your straight-up moderation style here Fred. Thank you.
     
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  4. Lycanthrope

    Lycanthrope Ask Dr Stupid...

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    OK, chaps, I've decided I'm an analyst, so listen up!

    My bull case for $TSLA is $4k - I didn't need to think about this too much, just agree with ARK, and even though it's a bit crazy, it is possible.

    My bear case though, well the others have it totally wrong, $TSLA isn't going to zero, it's going negative, yeah, -$42, Musk will actually have to pay everyone money back!

    Why? Nobody's going to ever buy a Tesla again, it's over, plus all the ones out there already will all catch fire and there'll be a big class-action = remember the "Optigrab" in The Jerk, well will be that all over again!
     
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  5. davecolene0606

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    Again with maybe?

    Fire Away!
     
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  6. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Active Member

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    Now you are going 100% fact free speculation and innuendo, and do you also expect us to prove a negative?

    Yes, theoretically Elon might secretly owe Vladimir Putin two billion dollars and might have pledged all his remaining shares in Tesla and SpaceX to Vlad.

    Meanwhile in the real world all reports suggest a much lower loan amount, plus Elon's use of liquidity yesterday is contrary to someone not having access to liquidity, right?
     
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  7. mrdoubleb

    mrdoubleb Active Member

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    As I got an "informative" and a "helpful", I am not sure everyone got my sarcasm. Obviously I was making fun of Thin Skinned Fred`s standard reaction.
     
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  8. RoadsterPlease

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    or you buy around 10 am below 200 if you can, same principal but with a more long term strategy
     
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  9. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    1. Your thesis is that Elon has significant amount of shares unnecessarily pledged? No, his financial advisers are wiser than that. His leverage ratio is closely watched by every single analyst and widely reported. They know the amount of shares pledged on the last day of the year is entered into public record. You better be sure they won't overstate it, if they can help it.
    2. Others have misinterpreted the reports as being total while it just puts a lower floor on the amount of his loan. I pointed this out just a bit higher up.
    3. I don't understand your rebuttal. Are you saying we can somehow confidently put a number of the amount of SpaceX stock owned by Elon that is open for pledging and also for how much the banks will value that as collateral?

    It's the other way around : the amount of shares pledged follow the stock price. For example, by the end of 2013, he had pledged over 10M shares at $150/share. By the end of 2014, the stock price was $220 and the amount of shares pledged dropped to 7.5 million.
     
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  10. anthonyj

    anthonyj Stonks

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    Own too many shares at this point with seemingly no bottom in sight and constant hits on Tesla. Rather just bet $100-$200 on puts end of day and get sickkkk gainz
     
  11. Mike Smith

    Mike Smith Active Member

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    Itay Michaeli at Citi says there's a 40% chance TSLA goes to $36, and a 60% chance it goes to 253 or higher. This is the stupidest call I've ever seen from an analyst.
     
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  12. electracity

    electracity Active Member

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    I think you are right, but what does free cash flow look ilke at those volumes? And more importantly, what is the ASP at the higher volumes? A lot is going to be learned over the next 2-4 quarters about what the mass market EV car buyer is willing to pay. Tesla has a lot of big projects to pay for in the next two years, including their portion of China gigafactory. Tesla has likely crossed a threshold where capital raises suppress share price.

    Tesla was structurally designed to be a larger company than they likely will be in 2020. I do think YOY auto revenue growth of 50% can continue for a few more years. They are proving it is really hard to grow faster.
     
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  13. Lycanthrope

    Lycanthrope Ask Dr Stupid...

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    I destroyed my winter wheel rims trying to get out of an underground parking in Paris :( Next time I'll just park on the street and accept a ticket.
     
  14. Nathan

    Nathan Member

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  15. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

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    I think it is you who is going on bender of innuendo here. There are many respectable banks that could have lend Elon money. Yes/No? Some of those banks are not underwriters Yes/No?

    And what's even more mind boggling that the amount he owes is irrelevant. I am not even really interested in discussing his total debt since we can't know it. What's relevant is the minimum amount of collateral requested by his bank.

    I never claimed that? Stop putting words into my mouth.

    I specifically pointed out he is only 25M shares in collateral and owns 33M + 4M ITM options. That does not sound like someone who is arguing that Elon does not have access to liquidity but exactly the opposite.
     
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  16. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    1. My thesis is that your 5 Billion number is derived based on assumptions and not a fact. Does having excessive shares pledged impact him financially? Are not lines of credit typically larger than the amount used?
    2. And you are putting him at the upper bound of his loan at the upper end of the share price, any data to back that up?
    3. It's not a rebuttal, it's an observation that saying one needed A to pay for B, yet used B to pay for A (A being TSLA and B being SpaceX), does not make a lot of sense. Pledging share of SpaceX to prop up a loan against shares of Tesla to cover the costs of SpaceX? If we do not have confident numbers then how is your 5 billion claim supported?
     
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  17. JusRelax

    JusRelax Member

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    • Informative x 1
  18. TheTalkingMule

    TheTalkingMule Distributed Energy Enthusiast

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    Q4'18 Update Letter
     
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  19. Lycanthrope

    Lycanthrope Ask Dr Stupid...

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    It's a tempting offer, would allow me some moments to actually talk to my wife and kids...
     
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  20. stef

    stef Member

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