Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[adiggs]

There is an acronym list in the FAQ: FAQ: TSLA Investor Discussions

but BB is missing I see. Generally I think one should avoid using acronyms that are not common (eg FAQ). Too much acronyms can easily lead to incomprehensible language for newcomers.

Market seems to anticipate good news for TSLA. Me too so I got me some more to be prepared for next week. Have been buying the whole way down, but saving some dry powder in case SnP still lags or macros fall again.

BB = Bollinger Band.

You get to look it up for yourself (it won't be hard). Understanding it though - that might take more work!

 

[jhm]

I’m quite sure you are and I don’t typically talk specifics simply because I have no control over the outcome. I’ve been at the mercy and whimsy of crooks, thieves and bandits. However, that’s changing/changed.

Based on observing your postings over the years, I feel that you lean more conservatively in your predictions and how you think this all plays out. It serves you well, never getting too far ahead and certainly never caught with your pants down.

I know you believe the SP got ahead of itself; I don’t necessarily disagree. The difference is probably mostly in just how far ahead.

I also know you’re very math oriented and you like to formula it all so the numbers make sense to you.

My contention is that I believe if you continue to model in your usual more mathematically conservative manner the actual test answer (SP) is going to be vastly different.

BF targets worked until they didn’t. They worked until the crooks, thieves and bandits lost control of Tesla and then they lost control of TSLA. And while they may continue to swing their apparatus around to show just how much they rule the world, every day Tesla grows a bit bigger and a bit more powerful. I believe Tesla’s power will usurp, is usurping the big boys. I believe chaos is in its way, fast.

So, no. I don’t expect another 5 year long, torturous base to form on the TSLA chart. I don’t even expect a shorter 1 year base to form. I expect this puppy to move like an epic surfing day, with ever larger, higher, longer lasting waves as the wind that is Tesla picks up throughout the day.

Let me express it in simple pictures.

2011-2019
View attachment 583992

2020-foreseeable future
View attachment 583995

Thanks. BFPTs worked well for acquisition while shorts were suppressing the share price. But I think the shorts have lost control of the stock and narrative. It is doubtful that they will ever be as effective again. So I get that trading over the next 5 years could be qualitatively different.

FWIW, I've started accumulating shares again. I last sold shares at $500, so these prices near $400 are looking tempting again.

 

[EVortex]

The Deis and Elon meeting.
Two whales playing one hand of 7 card stud for two hours, without a deck and an unlimited pot.

Good for Elon to size-up Deis and check out VW's offerings. Good for Deis to make friends with Elon.

 

[Criscmt]

I'll be ok parting with this $200 bet after making ~2mil in the past year doing other things "i don't understand."

Does the option automatically get settled based on AH price?

 

[vikings123]

I cant trade the option AH but it is my understanding that I can exercise it.

Are you planning on exercising them AH if they go ITM? My understanding is that typically one can alert their brokerage up until 5:30 to exercise a call; so if (big if) there's an announcement at 5:15 that gives 15 minutes to make the call. Is my understanding of that all correct?

(I don't plan on doing this myself, just interested in learning the mechanics.)

So just to be clear you cannot trade or exercise options after hours. If your option is ITM the broker will automatically assign the shares(assuming you have enough margin or cash in your account). They might do this AH but no you cannot game the system by buying an OTM option in regular hours and exercise that option in AH if it ends up ITM. You will lose your money if you try it but you are welcome to try if you don’t believe us.

BTW, only MMs and Hedge funds are allowed to game the system

 

[elasalle]

Thanks. BFPTs worked well for acquisition while shorts were suppressing the share price. But I think the shorts have lost control of the stock and narrative. It is doubtful that they will ever be as effective again. So I get that trading over the next 5 years could be qualitatively different.

FWIW, I've started accumulating shares again. I last sold shares at $500, so these prices near $400 are looking tempting again.

Usually it is only the ones that sell, have money to buy (hand over fist)

 

[Bet TSLA]

I'll be ok parting with this $200 bet after making ~2mil in the past year doing other things "i don't understand."

It's easy to confuse luck with skill and intelligence. Your original post means (if you are actually contemplating doing what you wrote) both ignorance and recklessness. This is a sure recipe for giving back whatever gains you've made, and probably all you have.

 

[Prunesquallor]

So what did they talk about?
Musk Test-Drives VW Electric Car in Meeting With CEO Diess

I quick trip to the Nürburgring?

 

[ZsoZso]

Standard TSLA volatility. Nothing to see here

Oh, but wait until 5:15pm EST, if S&P announces TSLA inclusion, then next week will be a lot wilder!

PS: * come to think of it, if TSLA is not included in their re-balance that may make it even wilder!

 

[lafrisbee]

Crap, how did you get the number exactly?

View attachment 584408

heck even this moron got one....all I did was wait for it to go up and then put in a limit buy at 420.69


09/04/20 Bought 1 of TSLA @ $420.69 -420.69

 

[BornToFly]

If there is no S&P announcement today, we are going to drop like a rock in AH. I'm trying to remain calm....

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Are the starts really aligning for a $420.69 close?

 

[Green Pete]

I'll be ok parting with this $200 bet after making ~2mil in the past year doing other things "i don't understand."

I will openly admit I don't understand options trading as well as I should despite doing very well. I think you should be a little more aware of what you know.

I don't know much. But buying calls that I think could exercise AH seems like a terrible idea. I explicitly close positions like that to make sure that doesn't happen.

If you really want to buy shares and believe the price will go up, just buy shares.

Not advice. Just my opinion.

 

[Tachyon]

Question
Is it possible that hedge funds were told by S&P about Tesla’s inclusion and they were selling non Tesla stock massively this week to make space for Tesla in their holdings ?
Did the market drop due to that?

 

[LTC_RRR]

WTF? The system disengaged in a busy/tricky area and that confused the driver? I thought it was ok until that part.

If the driver has not yet gained experience with FSD, confusion is understandable

 

[Tyler34]

It's easy to confuse luck with skill and intelligence. Your original post means (if you are actually contemplating doing what you wrote) both ignorance and recklessness. This is a sure recipe for giving back whatever gains you've made, and probably all you have.

I literally spent $200 buying 50 contracts. If you consider risking $200 ignorant and reckless then we don't have much to talk about. If you want, you can take the other side of the trade since you seem so sure that my side of the trade is ignorant and reckless. You'll either be $200 richer or infinity poorer.

 

[woodisgood]

If there is no S&P announcement today, we are going to drop like a rock in AH. I'm trying to remain calm....

If short-term matters to S&P, they would use what you said to their advantage and keep dropping the SP by delaying inclusion. However, it has been argued before that the short-term doesn’t matter to them, aside from not wanting to buy in at artificially inflated prices (i.e., infinity squeeze). I believe Tesla has addressed their concerns about liquidity (split) and artificial squeeze (open-ended cap raise), so inclusion should be imminent. I’m not sure the committee sweats the small details people are perseverating over, such as the long weekend. They probably just move at their own bloated dinosaur pace.

 

[lafrisbee]

wait? my Roth 401K has changed color? why?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I literally spent $200 buying 50 contracts. If you consider risking $200 ignorant and reckless then we don't have much to talk about. If you want, you can take the other side of the trade since you seem so sure that my side of the trade is ignorant and reckless. You'll either be $200 richer or infinity poorer.

No need for a response like that bruh...we're all here to sustain the mission and make some $ on the way up.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

wait? my Roth 401K has changed color? why?

You peeed on the screen again?