Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Short interest is still 55M(11M pre-split)? How the hell is that possible?

I believe that number is from the end of Aug. If it's still the level, that's about $22.5B STILL short. Yikes!

 

[ggr]

You know what to do the next day even if you're not off....'cough..cough'

Cough once for one day off. Cough twice for 14 days off.

 

[Fobble]

And what’s more, screw the S&P 500.
Tesla will make out just fine without any help from the good old boys.

Don't need to screw them. At the same time no need to be eager either. SP actions last week and today imply that investors have reset their expectation and care less about S&P addition, and TSLA does not need it to continue to climb. Whenever the time comes, it will be just a bonus and extra boost, like icing on the cake.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Chamath with some advice:

https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1305550186341564417?s=21

Essentially, he advocates discipline. And note this:

5. I don’t play with derivatives.

Options seem fun but they are like allowing a toddler to play with a loaded gun. You can have a few close calls but it eventually catches up with you.​

Anybody thinking about playing with options should paper trade for a few months to get the feel for it. And, at first, play around with no more than a small percentage of your portfolio. It's really easy to lose everything and more. Don't ask me how I know.

Buying my first Model S in 2014, using profits from trading TSLA, remains the best investing decision I ever made. And it was strictly an exercise in discipline -- I had started trading TSLA with the intention of making enough to buy a Tesla with the profits, and sticking with that rather than getting greedy was a very difficult thing.

 

[FYMR]

Essentially, he advocates discipline. And note this:

5. I don’t play with derivatives.

Options seem fun but they are like allowing a toddler to play with a loaded gun. You can have a few close calls but it eventually catches up with you.​

Anybody thinking about playing with options should paper trade for a few months to get the feel for it. And, at first, play around with no more than a small percentage of your portfolio. It's really easy to lose everything and more. Don't ask me how I know.

Buying my first Model S in 2014, using profits from trading TSLA, remains the best investing decision I ever made. And it was strictly an exercise in discipline -- I had started trading TSLA with the intention of making enough to buy a Tesla with the profits, and sticking with that rather than getting greedy was a very difficult thing.

That’s a good idea. I have not done options trading before and quite frankly don’t know how. Only have been a buy and hold trader. Need to read up on it and maybe practice to see how I would do. Thanks.

 

[CanadaEV]

Don't need to screw them. At the same time no need to be eager either. SP actions last week and today imply that investors have reset their expectation and care less about S&P addition, and TSLA does not need it to continue to climb. Whenever the time comes, it will be just a bonus and extra boost, like icing on the cake.

Exactly my point. Tesla doesn’t need them, so no need to wait with bated breath. If they want to come along for the ride, fine! But much better if it’s on Tesla’s terms than from some vague promise of S&P importance

 

[Nocturnal]

Essentially, he advocates discipline. And note this:

5. I don’t play with derivatives.

Options seem fun but they are like allowing a toddler to play with a loaded gun. You can have a few close calls but it eventually catches up with you.​

Anybody thinking about playing with options should paper trade for a few months to get the feel for it. And, at first, play around with no more than a small percentage of your portfolio. It's really easy to lose everything and more. Don't ask me how I know.

Buying my first Model S in 2014, using profits from trading TSLA, remains the best investing decision I ever made. And it was strictly an exercise in discipline -- I had started trading TSLA with the intention of making enough to buy a Tesla with the profits, and sticking with that rather than getting greedy was a very difficult thing.

Yup. I started with a small amount and traded Tesla options only. I got very lucky and did very well. I give myself credit for not letting it go to my head and convincing myself I was some trading genius. Since then I just buy barely OTM leaps when the stock is down and limit total options to 10% or less. The only non-TSLA options I play with are for stocks that I'm playing "the wheel" on. This is the only stock that I follow closely enough to have a clue about price movements, and even then it's still roulette.

 

[mejojo]

Essentially, he advocates discipline. And note this:

5. I don’t play with derivatives.

Options seem fun but they are like allowing a toddler to play with a loaded gun. You can have a few close calls but it eventually catches up with you.​

Not a great analogy.....in what scenario can a toddler with a loaded gun retire at age 7? (Oh, bank robbery you say?)

 

[Congo Line]

Sell the dog ICE car. I really don't understand having to suddenly take a trip with no time for Supercharging. But if it will ease her mind, show her how many days the money you spend on insurance, oil and batteries could cover car rentals for those mythical "no time for Supercharging" trips you will need to take.

Is she prepping for the zombie apocalypse?

Believe me, we've talked about those points. My wife hates rental cars, based on various factors incl. one time when rental company tried to charge us for pre-existing damage (I take cellphone video of vehicle exterior whenever picking up a car, which saved us), and her lack of comfort/familiarity with driving position and driving dynamics compared with our own cars.

Unfortunately, we've also had instances where the Lexus did come in handy. Three years ago I had an accident in my S, back when Tesla parts were hard to get and it took 5 months to get it back from shop (despite it being mostly body damage). She loves to point out how much a rental would have cost us (insurance generally only covers 1 month). Another where my dad's car was in an accident and he borrowed it for a month.

Last month my MCU went bad one morning and we needed the Lexus so I could get to work. After that, she told me she never wanted to hear me complain about the Lexus any more...

On the bright side, she's OK with me trading my S for a Roadster 2 when it comes out, so that's keeping the peace in our marriage.

 

[Tslynk67]

Well we all give the bird to S&P right now, but you all realise that three weeks from now, Tesla are likely to post record P&D, which obviously means record profits, and likely profits even with regulatory credits removed.

So the whole S&P speculation machine will crank up again, but this time with a higher stock price and with a lot of people watching to see if S&P still has any relevance, so lots of pressure on them. Then again end of the year with even higher deliveries and profits, plus likely 1m+ delivery guidance for 2021.

I know they gave some highfalutin' "we do what we want, Tesla purple-patch" BS response last week, but if I were them then I'd surprise add Tesla this week, will cause less index carnage and limit the damage to what credibility they think they retain.

 

[Motor Mouth]

Well we all give the bird to S&P right now, but you all realise that three weeks from now, Tesla are likely to post record P&D, which obviously means record profits, and likely profits even with regulatory credits removed.

So the whole S&P speculation machine will crank up again, but this time with a higher stock price and with a lot of people watching to see if S&P still has any relevance, so lots of pressure on them. The gain end of the year with even higher deliveries and profits, plus likely 1m+ delivery guidance for 2021.

I know they gave some highfalutin' "we do what we want, Tesla purple-patch" BS response last week, but if I were them then I'd surprise add Tesla this week, will cause less index carnage and limit the damage to what credibility they think they retain.

BTW - how hilarious is the claim of a "purple patch" that happened to occur during a global pandemic? What a sublimely counter-intuitive thing to claim.

 

[ggr]

Okay, but I voted my shares through my broker, and obtained my control number for said shares on-line as the number is in the voting form. I then sent that control number to computershare (today), and thought that would be enough to get their control number for the meeting, not to vote my already voted shares, but for what I hope will be a better streaming service (less viewers?) and for the right to submit questions.

I see (now) where the wording suggests sending in the "legal proxy" form letter that you posted as being required. If so, then yes, I agree, it's probable too late to start now. We'll see.

Let me just say that votes from people like me and I assume you are completely irrelevant to any outcomes... You'll notice that they always announce the result of the voting before there has been any chance to count the in-person votes.

 

[ggr]

Don't worry, the likely solution to global warming on Venus would be to build a Dyson sphere to capture incoming solar energy to reduce the heat. I don't think Elon will be interested in building a Dyson anything.

Different Dyson.

 

[Artful Dodger]

BTW - how hilarious is the claim of a "purple patch" that happened to occur during a global pandemic? What a sublimely counter-intuitive thing to claim.

FUN FACT: The "Purple Patch" is the manufacturing cessation method preferred by the Alameda County health officer.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Exactly my point. Tesla doesn’t need them, so no need to wait with bated breath. If they want to come along for the ride, fine! But much better if it’s on Tesla’s terms than from some vague promise of S&P importance

From Chamath Palihapitiya via Twitter:

Options seem fun but they are like allowing a toddler to play with a loaded gun. You can have a few close calls but it eventually catches up with you.

Don't trade options if you have no clue what you are doing

 

[ggr]

Fantastic twitter thread this morning from someone I've never heard of. Basically he says that Tesla/Musk are running multiple feedback loops that improve the products and the company, that are extremely hard to analyze using traditional valuation metrics. Highly recommend reading it.
https://twitter.com/alexandrosM/status/1305174986852896768

 

[insaneoctane]

That’s more than a 30% loss. I thought more than a 30% loss and you’d get a replacement battery?

Yes, damn it, I meant to put the example at >70%.....should have said range drops to 235. Good catch.

 

[Joe F]

Let me just say that votes from people like me and I assume you are completely irrelevant to any outcomes... You'll notice that they always announce the result of the voting before there has been any chance to count the in-person votes.

Very true, just as our (my at least) TSLA shares don't move the SP at all on a daily basis. But collectively, the little guys votes and shares add up, IMHO.

 

[Tslynk67]

From Chamath Palihapitiya via Twitter:

Options seem fun but they are like allowing a toddler to play with a loaded gun. You can have a few close calls but it eventually catches up with you.

Don't trade options if you have no clue what you are doing

I learned as I went and made shitloads.

Am I a trading genius? Nope. Big assist from a stock that went up and up and up. Still needed to have the brain to buy the LEAPS in the first place though.

 

[Nocturnal]

I think this is OT. What do you guys make of JB's being on the board of QuantumScape? It's not unusual for founders to join other boards, but this is a potential competitor. (presumably though JB also wants everything to move towards electric) On top of that you have the VW relationship which obviously has some Tesla connections too with the bromance between Elon and Diess.

Also, I'm wondering if we will hear anything about Redwood materials on battery day.