Lol, no way the ASP is $40K on 20M units. More like:
- 1st 5M units $40K (all current Models)
- 2nd 5M units $25K (Model 2)
- 3rd 10M units $15K (Model 1)
That's $24K ASP circa 2030. Remember, at this level Tesla is selling 1 in every 4 cars in the world. Tesla's ASP has to represent the expected distribution of the whole auto market, since it will be by far the largest single constituent of that market.
Now keep in mind, these ASPs do no include FSD/autonomy. With an intrinsic value of $100K/license, Tesla will be moving to a subscription model for those products, which will produce a separate monthly income stream. Have you valued that in your calculation?
Cheers!