Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jw934]

$408 is an awesome price! Opportunistic buying is the way to go.

 

[dl003]

Lol, no way the ASP is $40K on 20M units. More like:

• 1st 5M units $40K (all current Models)
  
• 2nd 5M units $25K (Model 2)
• 3rd 10M units $15K (Model 1)

That's $24K ASP circa 2030. Remember, at this level Tesla is selling 1 in every 4 cars in the world. Tesla's ASP has to represent the expected distribution of the whole auto market, since it will be by far the largest single constituent of that market.

Now keep in mind, these ASPs do no include FSD/autonomy. With an intrinsic value of $100K/license, Tesla will be moving to a subscription model for those products, which will produce a separate monthly income stream. Have you valued that in your calculation?

Cheers!

Although I haven't taken software into the model, I considered a few things:
. Inflation of 2-3% annually
. I'm looking at a future where most of the legacies have been out of business. The ASP of a new car right now is about $37k so if TSLA doesn't have to sell a super duper mass market car to reach 20M units, I think $40k will be rather realistic.
"Alexa, set alarm for 10 years"

 

[Papafox]

I said explicitly because you have said on your thread that you see the action as a battle between longs and shorts. I suppose I stretched that in calling it good vs. evil, but that's certainly the flavor I get. And I have no argument with your bits of TA based prediction, for people that like that sort of thing. To me, I'm afraid, it always sounds like ambiguous gibberish so I rarely read it. But it's all good for what it is. Mostly, when I've looked, you characterize the action of the day and don't try to predict tomorrow, which is reasonable.

Have you ever tried identifying all the things you might characterize as predictions and checked to see if they turned out right, wrong, or ambiguous? That might be a revealing exercise. Short-term predictions, as we all can testify, are notoriously difficult.

I realize that your "good vs. evil" comment was referring to my longs vs. shorts tug-of-war, but by using the "good vs. evil" phrase you added undeserved negative color to my methodologies that makes me look like some Don Quixote charging windmills with my lance while astride my trusty steed Rocinante. Likewise, your question of whether I have ever categorized my predictions and checked for accuracy is unnecessarily derogatory. Of course I do this. My own money follows my statements, and so if one type of prediction is performing badly, such as manipulation-related claims, I am acutely aware. My returns since May 2019 have significantly outpaced the stock price appreciation.

I am open to critical review. If you find something in my work that you think is incorrect, feel free to speak up. @Sancho made comments that led to my revising my understanding of TSLA trading, and I invite such constructive criticism. Please avoid the broad brush negative comments that are of no value to anyone, however. Wishing you well in your investments.

 

[Curt Renz]

MarketWatch - hour ago: Fidelity’s $230 billion man explains why he dumped Tesla shares but still bets big on Warren Buffett

Excerpt:

One big winner his fund doesn’t hold, at least among its top names, is Tesla TSLA, -2.82%, and Danoff is still kicking himself for selling too early.

In 2017 and 2018, he unloaded most of the Contrafund’s position in the electric car maker, which, according to Bloomberg News, caused him to miss out on more than $10 billion in gains. Now, he’s conflicted: Buy back in or wait and see if that $412 billion valuation comes down a bit?

“There’s no question [selling Tesla} was a mistake,” he said in a Bloomberg interview posted on Thursday. “Mistakes are part of this business… you have to learn from your mistakes. I should have said do I feel comfortable owning Tesla for the next 10 years… I should not have cut back.”

Article titles "says man explains why he dumped Tesla"

Actual article doesn't say at all why he dumped his Tesla shares, only that he regrets it......lol

I emailed the author and he apologized. In response he added the following line to the article:

“There were concerns I had about the profitability of the company,” he said.

 

[Zero CO2]

Quick scan of thread today and i noticed a number of risk averse husbands, friends and parents purchasing TSLA shares .. presumably w/o any research

" Be fearful when others are greedy"

feels like another 20% correction is near ... getting the dry powder ready to accumulate some more shares

 

[elasalle]

9/23 - All Competition will be back at the drawing boards

 

[Zero CO2]

just watched interesting webinar on 5G and autonomy here are slides

https://ssl.lvl3.on24.com/event/26/...vehiclespresentationver15sep1600365978657.pdf

not sure how Tesla views 5G any thoughts ? Ultra-Reliable and Low Latency Communications (URLLC): in particular

 

[ZachF]

9/23 - All Competition will be back at the drawing boards

Learn to moat-jump or die.

 

[woodisgood]

9/23 - All Competition will be back at the drawing boards

Ah...so you’re saying it might be a good idea to buy Dry-Erase stock.

 

[Knightshade]

Although I haven't taken software into the model, I considered a few things:
. Inflation of 2-3% annually
. I'm looking at a future where most of the legacies have been out of business. The ASP of a new car right now is about $37k so if TSLA doesn't have to sell a super duper mass market car to reach 20M units, I think $40k will be rather realistic.
"Alexa, set alarm for 10 years"

37k ASP in the us

ASP in say China or India- much much lower.

 

[Singuy]

just watched interesting webinar on 5G and autonomy here are slides

https://ssl.lvl3.on24.com/event/26/...vehiclespresentationver15sep1600365978657.pdf

not sure how Tesla views 5G any thoughts ? Ultra-Reliable and Low Latency Communications (URLLC): in particular

Sounds like the car will drive into a wall inside of a tunnel.

 

[elasalle]

Max pain at 348 tomorrow, but likely to land b/w 420-425 ..

 

[Tim S]

Quick scan of thread today and i noticed a number of risk averse husbands, friends and parents purchasing TSLA shares .. presumably w/o any research

" Be fearful when others are greedy"

feels like another 20% correction is near ... getting the dry powder ready to accumulate some more shares

We had a 20% correction last Tuesday. You expecting one every week now? I know TSLA is volatile, but that seems excessive.

 

[kyzhk]

Quick scan of thread today and i noticed a number of risk averse husbands, friends and parents purchasing TSLA shares .. presumably w/o any research

" Be fearful when others are greedy"

feels like another 20% correction is near ... getting the dry powder ready to accumulate some more shares

Doesn't that mean I should be greedy because of your fear?

 

[JustMe]

Although I haven't taken software into the model, I considered a few things:
. Inflation of 2-3% annually
. I'm looking at a future where most of the legacies have been out of business. The ASP of a new car right now is about $37k so if TSLA doesn't have to sell a super duper mass market car to reach 20M units, I think $40k will be rather realistic.
"Alexa, set alarm for 10 years"

The ASP *in the US* is $37k. It is obviously lower globally. It’s probably closer to $30k than $40k, but I haven’t found a good reference for the global auto ASP.

My expectation is that Tesla’s ASP will be close to $30k if/when they reach 20M units per year, but margins will be very high by 2030 once Elon’s vision of extreme manufacturing automation is realized. Imagine cars flying off the assembly line as fast as battery cells are now.

 

[Ocelot]

OFF TOPIC

One can wonder if autopilot makes things more or less safe in the short term.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmo...a-ponoka-speeding-dangerous-driving-1.5727828

wow. 14 disagrees. i mean dude was asleep at wheel, and nothing happened, which is a checkmark for safe. would dude have fallen asleep or driven, if he did not have FSD? checkmark for maybe unsafe. is there a certain subset of population where risk might be increased , ie those who use it how its not supposed to be used. probably.

would you feel comfortable putting seat in recline and going to bed ?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Has anyone modeled what margin will be on Semi and how much it could contribute to earnings?

"Tesla Battery Day Reveal is Key for Semi Truck Success" | Cleanerwatt (10:59)

 

[Green Pete]

wow. 14 disagrees. i mean dude was asleep at wheel, and nothing happened, which is a checkmark for safe. would dude have fallen asleep or driven, if he did not have FSD? checkmark for maybe unsafe. is there a certain subset of population where risk might be increased , ie those who use it how its not supposed to be used. probably.

would you feel comfortable putting seat in recline and going to bed ?

It has been empirically studied and proven that accidents per mile on autopilot is lower than without. That doesn't mean there wont be idiots. A knife can be dangerous to a cook if that cook is an idiot about it. But the numbers show autopilot is a net increase in safety.

Also, I personally know people who fell asleep at the wheel in a traditional car because they were exhausted from being over worked and crashed. Luckily there were no major consequences, but people falling asleep at the wheel is not new.

 

[dl003]

37k ASP in the us

ASP in say China or India- much much lower.

The ASP *in the US* is $37k. It is obviously lower globally. It’s probably closer to $30k than $40k, but I haven’t found a good reference for the global auto ASP.

My expectation is that Tesla’s ASP will be close to $30k if/when they reach 20M units per year, but margins will be very high by 2030 once Elon’s vision of extreme manufacturing automation is realized. Imagine cars flying off the assembly line as fast as battery cells are now.

That is true. However, Tesla's ASP is more in line with that in the US, which is justified by the superior quality and branding, than those in the rest of the world. You don't see Apple lower its prices to compete in China. Or does it?
I don't see why Tesla has to price-match Skoda, BYD or whoever if all it'll do is filling the void left behind by Honda, Toyota, GM, etc...

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Seems like a nice quiet day following macros. I like a nice quiet day every now and then, most days are insane for TSLA lately.