Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CyberDutchie]

Although TSLA appears to be strongly under the MM’s influence this week, when discussing max pain for Friday’s expiration (our likely Friday target) I suggest that nobody mention the actual number just so you don’t unintentionally irritate anyone on the forum here . (Hint: max pain for Friday is somewhere midway between $410 and $430).

The Level II in premarket shows something very odd, on the bid side: 10’s of blocks of 400 at $423.55. Any explanation as to the significance of the $423.55?

 

[Krugerrand]

Although TSLA appears to be strongly under the MM’s influence this week, when discussing max pain for Friday’s expiration (our likely Friday target) I suggest that nobody mention the actual number just so you don’t unintentionally irritate anyone on the forum here . (Hint: max pain for Friday is somewhere midway between $410 and $430).

Where there’s a will, there’s a way, mods.

 

[Juhoru]

Well I bought a few 10.30.20 $440 C last Fri. Seeing that 3Q earnings should be v. big according to many trusted sources considering 3Q P&D numbers, discounting the Pres antics, I'm holding on for a while longer, but eyeing to roll out half to Jan '21 540 C just because on reflection, I tend to be overoptimistic. 500 seems a bit extreme for Oct, tho.

I've had a 3x Bull ETP... thing, or what ever it is in English... For a month now. I don't have much money in it so I just decided that I'm not selling before it's profitable (or when it goes to 0). Stock was ~450 when I got the thing, so we'll see. It's been a rollercoaster month though
I'm voting, (if you can't afford to lose the money, obviously yes, get out. But if not) just hang in there, It'll be fine

Not an expert/ not advice.

BTW. Why does everybody keep saying this? Every youtuber always stresses that they are just "saying what they are doing, NOT giving financial advice".
Are you legally responsible if you forget to say it or something?

 

[Krugerrand]

somewhat OT but it's interesting how Bloomberg TV have started to cover the SpaceX launches live. Sentiment change.

Meh. Or they just realized SpaceX draws a lot of eyes now and they can’t afford not to cover it.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Giga India is looking more like a real possibility, which I find a bit surprising. I know there was some Tesla Tuk Tuk discussion earlier, but what do we see as the real opportunity here? No doubt more APAC factories will be needed, but India wouldn’t have topped my list, maybe because I’m not coming at it from first principles, but from my ingrained stereotypes - Bangalore is for offshoring IT, not manufacturing; ASP would need to be too low, etc.

I’m sure someone here is knowledgeable about the Indian vehicle market and has a better idea why they should be the next factory (apart from, you know, all the people that live there). I know that to sell there you need to manufacture there, so is the reason just that simple? Or is there something else about the market or their manufacturing capabilities that would move them to the top of the list?

Maybe someone else has answered in a better way. How about India's resources?

Sun (solar power, storage)
Minerals (I have no idea but a huge country with a variety of geographies)

This might lead to large scale production of photovoltatic power, storage/grid stabilisation, small scale vehicle production (including Semi).

Once India is a net producer, the pressure is to reduce barriers and be an exporter. India to East/South Africa is an easy journey and there are cultural links from British Empire days. Ditto with regard to Middle East, Indonesia/Malaysia/Burma/Thailand etc.

India and China are also sometimes at odds with one another, so this would be further evidence to me of Tesla building a true multi-national company/movement which has fewer dependencies on particular politics.

Also, further the mission... crack India and you've moved a huge chunk of humanity towards a sustainable future. Miss out India and as wealth increases, so does consumption, pollution and global effects. Better to get in early before the legacy / polluting infrastructure is built and vested interests get in the way.

 

[jbcarioca]

Giga India is looking more like a real possibility, which I find a bit surprising. I know there was some Tesla Tuk Tuk discussion earlier, but what do we see as the real opportunity here? No doubt more APAC factories will be needed, but India wouldn’t have topped my list, maybe because I’m not coming at it from first principles, but from my ingrained stereotypes - Bangalore is for offshoring IT, not manufacturing; ASP would need to be too low, etc.

I’m sure someone here is knowledgeable about the Indian vehicle market and has a better idea why they should be the next factory (apart from, you know, all the people that live there). I know that to sell there you need to manufacture there, so is the reason just that simple? Or is there something else about the market or their manufacturing capabilities that would move them to the top of the list?

I think that Gigafactory might be the wrong idea.As I posted before, there are enormous opportunities for Tesla in India but they will be based on Indian, not NA or EU paradigms. For reference, solar and storage are both certain to be very important with both produced in India with India-centric products. There will be vehicles to be sure but I will wager large sums that they will be based on the China designs. In the meantime there may well be small-scale CKD of Models 3 and/or Y, but I will not be surprised either way because that market will be tiny and the infrastructure does not easily accommodate such huge cars in any quantity, not to mention the electrical infrastructure. Given the India stated plans (I've linked them elsewhere here) it is highly likely that Tesla will help in deploying charging infrastructure as well as energy generation nd storage. Expect cooperation with multiple Indian and non-Indian partners.

As for the three wheel taxi market, that is very well covered by Bajaj, Mahindra and others who all, every one are already offering BEV versions. Suppliers like Bosch are already very active in that sector. Overall we will certainly see Tesla acting as participant in a number of markets, certainly not in ways that are identical to those elsewhere.

Everyone should look very, very carefully at what Tesla is doing in China for hints. They are labeled 100% Tesla-owned. true. Now look at how they acquire employees, how they're building the factory and Design center, how they interact with suppliers.

In my opinion, acquired from having lived and worked in more than a dozen countries (Asia, Middle East, Europe, NA and SA ones), I think it is crucial to understand that Tesl and Elon are acutely aware of how the world works. Tesla has proven time and again how well they navigate in ostensibly difficult places for US companies to go. A quick review of senior staff at Tesla shows that they are very well equipped for global business.

Just don't imagine that all the expansion is happening by repeating US approaches.

 

[amolina]

Giga India is looking more like a real possibility, which I find a bit surprising. I know there was some Tesla Tuk Tuk discussion earlier, but what do we see as the real opportunity here? No doubt more APAC factories will be needed, but India wouldn’t have topped my list, maybe because I’m not coming at it from first principles, but from my ingrained stereotypes - Bangalore is for offshoring IT, not manufacturing; ASP would need to be too low, etc.

I’m sure someone here is knowledgeable about the Indian vehicle market and has a better idea why they should be the next factory (apart from, you know, all the people that live there). I know that to sell there you need to manufacture there, so is the reason just that simple? Or is there something else about the market or their manufacturing capabilities that would move them to the top of the list?

One could assemble the parts there to be able to avoid the crazy >50-100% government tariffs that currentlly exists. However, it would make a ton of sense for Iron phospate batteries for the grid storage in INDIA. There are many peaker plants in India and there is lots to gain. However, the electricity is not exactly expensive (Not at the levels of Australian grid), so the ROI is still a tough bargain. However, India imports about 80% of its oil needs and it causes a huge outflow of reserves which the government would be very keen on stopping. That said, I wouldn't be suprised to see crazy incentives from the government

 

[Christine69420]

I think the Tesla Semi might have a good shot in India. It will be cheaper to run there too just as in the US. And transport businesses have more capital than the general population and perhaps the longer view on the cost benefits of EVs.

Many Semis will only need to charge at their home base in the US. And I'm sure that is true for India too. Megachargers can be built out as needed by actual Semi buyers.

 

[aubreymcfato]

It seems that a new Chinese BEV will enter in Europe soon.

They contacted me via Facebook for a consumer survey (as I just bought a BEV) and asked me several questions about what I look for in a car, and perception about Chinese tech.

These are the pics that were in the survey.

 

[Lessmog]

Maybe someone else has answered in a better way. How about India's resources?

Sun (solar power, storage)
Minerals (I have no idea but a huge country with a variety of geographies)

This might lead to large scale production of photovoltatic power, storage/grid stabilisation, small scale vehicle production (including Semi).

Once India is a net producer, the pressure is to reduce barriers and be an exporter. India to East/South Africa is an easy journey and there are cultural links from British Empire days. Ditto with regard to Middle East, Indonesia/Malaysia/Burma/Thailand etc.

India and China are also sometimes at odds with one another, so this would be further evidence to me of Tesla building a true multi-national company/movement which has fewer dependencies on particular politics.

Also, further the mission... crack India and you've moved a huge chunk of humanity towards a sustainable future. Miss out India and as wealth increases, so does consumption, pollution and global effects. Better to get in early before the legacy / polluting infrastructure is built and vested interests get in the way.

Wait wait, I know: Model Tea?

 

[dl003]

It seems that a new Chinese BEV will enter in Europe soon.

They contacted me via Facebook for a consumer survey (as I just bought a BEV) and asked me several questions about what I look for in a car, and perception about Chinese tech.

These are the pics that were in the survey.

Looks as if Nissan and Porsche had a kid. Not a good looking one.

 

[Paul_SF]

Wait wait, I know: Model Tea?

Chai

 

[Tslynk67]

I bought a few 10.30.20 $500 calls a couple weeks ago and now I’m not sure what to do with them. Should I sell them at a loss before they go to zero?

Well there lies the rub with calls, when to sell...

I guess they're lottery-tickets and you bought them for small-change? Would it hurt to let them go to zero, etc.?

For example, last week I had a c450 bought the previous Friday for $400. On Thursday evening it was worth $900, but I didn't sell as I expected a further positive shift from the P&D - Trump's C19 adventure put and end to that, and killed what I believe would have been a positive reaction to the numbers. They went to zero. Did I beat myself up? Nope.

However, I also had 20x Oct 16 c360's that I needed to offload. Thursday evening they were valued $180k, again, for the above reasons I waited until Friday, then on Friday open, they were still worth $160k, I decided to wait seeing that things appeared to be recovering, the MM's stepped-in and they fell to $120k. I then took the decision to leave them until Monday, with the hope that Trump didn't didn't drop-dead over the weekend. The stock popped a bit yesterday morning and I sold them for $140k.

Note that they were valued around $300k on the day of the great Splitterino, but of course I couldn't trade them, plus I was expecting a pop from S&P, P&D, etc.

Timing, all about timing. And risk aversion, I sleep badly some nights with situations like that, a real a present chance that several 100k $ goes to zero, it's stressful.

So your call is, do you care to lose money now, do you care if they go to zero, what if there's a run-up before the ER, what if there's a pop after the ER on great numbers...

Nobody can make that decision for you, none of us know where the SP is going, but what I can advise is to be decisive and then act quickly, plus don't regret whatever decision you make, but at least learn from it

TL;DR - do what you think is best, we can help you.

 

[joh01652]

I think that Gigafactory might be the wrong idea.As I posted before, there are enormous opportunities for Tesla in India but they will be based on Indian, not NA or EU paradigms. For reference, solar and storage are both certain to be very important with both produced in India with India-centric products. There will be vehicles to be sure but I will wager large sums that they will be based on the China designs. In the meantime there may well be small-scale CKD of Models 3 and/or Y, but I will not be surprised either way because that market will be tiny and the infrastructure does not easily accommodate such huge cars in any quantity, not to mention the electrical infrastructure. Given the India stated plans (I've linked them elsewhere here) it is highly likely that Tesla will help in deploying charging infrastructure as well as energy generation nd storage. Expect cooperation with multiple Indian and non-Indian partners.

As for the three wheel taxi market, that is very well covered by Bajaj, Mahindra and others who all, every one are already offering BEV versions. Suppliers like Bosch are already very active in that sector. Overall we will certainly see Tesla acting as participant in a number of markets, certainly not in ways that are identical to those elsewhere.

Everyone should look very, very carefully at what Tesla is doing in China for hints. They are labeled 100% Tesla-owned. true. Now look at how they acquire employees, how they're building the factory and Design center, how they interact with suppliers.

In my opinion, acquired from having lived and worked in more than a dozen countries (Asia, Middle East, Europe, NA and SA ones), I think it is crucial to understand that Tesl and Elon are acutely aware of how the world works. Tesla has proven time and again how well they navigate in ostensibly difficult places for US companies to go. A quick review of senior staff at Tesla shows that they are very well equipped for global business.

Just don't imagine that all the expansion is happening by repeating US approaches.

Agreed, big cars won't work everywhere. A slightly modified CyberATV for carrying people/supplies could be a very practical vehicle for not only some Indian markets, but in any market with high population density and a mild climate. Adding a trailer hitch also increases its utility. Here in the states, ATVs are commonly used for all kinds of (small-scale) work tasks, from plowing snow from driveways/parking lots, moving/hauling firewood, pulling tree stumps, getting over rough, wooded terrain, etc.

The small town I live in, the climate is mild and dry most of the year. I'm planning to buy the CyberATV for our around-town vehicle (no need to take the Y to the grocery store and risk it getting damaged, and the ATV uses less energy per mile than our Y). With a secure rack on the back we can both hop on the ATV and do various errands like grocery shopping; if we need lumber from Home Depot, put a trailer on the back.

If it wasn't for how loud, stinky and obnoxious current ATVs are I'd do that now.

 

[ZeApelido]

The Level II in premarket shows something very odd, on the bid side: 10’s of blocks of 400 at $423.55. Any explanation as to the significance of the $423.55?

View attachment 595798

It's the Euclidean norm of the Laplace transformation of the Fibonacci sequence of Schrodingers cats.

#numerology

 

[OrthoSurg]

Didn't see this article linked yet:

Forbes article

Just couldn't follow the math...
The article is dated today, but $6K SP must be pre-split?

Any article on Ark is a kryptonite to Tesla FUD

 

[Big Time]

Does anyone else notice that TSLA has no problems following the macros on the way down....but on the way up......waits till EOD?

god damn algos

 

[JRP3]

Who are some of the original Tesla share holders? The under 30 dollar/share pre split group?

I waited till after the IPO assuming the share price would first spike and then come down lower. Ended up buying my first shares at $24, so my plan didn't work out but I still did OK.

 

[phantasms]

Why do we think that for the past two weeks "they" have been trying to pin the price to max pain for the entire week?

 

[bkp_duke]

It seems that a new Chinese BEV will enter in Europe soon.

They contacted me via Facebook for a consumer survey (as I just bought a BEV) and asked me several questions about what I look for in a car, and perception about Chinese tech.

These are the pics that were in the survey.

Distinct design queues from Mini and Porsche on the exterior styling.