Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[heltok]

To continue on the FSD thought train. Imo there are a lot of different questions that need to be considered. Let’s for a moment ignore the Robotaxi potential, just assume that in 2021Q1 Tesla releases software that can drive safer than average humans from A->B 90% of the time while requiring driver supervision.

1. What would be the cost of this package? $10k?
2. What would be the take rate of this package? 50%?

1+2 this would add 10% margin, with 1M cars delivered in 2021 that would be another $5B in profit, with a P/E of 50x that is $250B in market cap. If Tesla can do 2M cars in 2022, that is another $500B in market cap.

Conclusion: If Elon is right, this is pretty major and certainly not priced in. And this is something that we certainly should spend some time on discussing and analyzing in the near term...

What are your figures?

Just want to bump my previous post. If software comes out limited next tuesday, wide release in November, improves rapidly over the winter then 2021Q1 A->B 90% of the time seems very plausible. +$250B market cap in 2021 alone? Are my figures optimistic/conservative?

 

[Knightshade]

Or people will put off buying new ones and keep old ones longer. Used prices might rise, increased spare part and servicing costs/income for a while, but eventually Cybertruck & others will be the shiny aspirational things. Buying second best will seem naff.

I mean- that certainly doesn't happen with ICE vehicles.

Some ICE trucks are clearly better than others, even at the same price point- but ultimately there's a bunch of them out there and all them get some sales.

No reason to think that won't be true of EVs as well.

You can Osborne yourself and Osborne others. My guess is that during the transition from horses to ICE, new horse-carriage sales dived a long time before cars were produced in overwhelming numbers.

I'd actually be really really curious to know if that was the case.

Because in most places the transition wasn't actually nearly as fast as people seem to think it was.... (a lot of folks try and use NYC as an example, which got to "majority" cars fairly quick- but is unlike 99% of the rest of the country- and still had a surprisingly high number of horses in service into the 1930s when you look at the real numbers- and most places with less density too even longer to get off horses)


Remember, even Elons own, most optimistic, projection is MAYBE there'll be 30 million new EVs a year by 2030 (with maybe 20 million of those being Tesla)

That's still less than half the # of new car sales annually today.

Tesla's doing a lot to scale up batteries to hit what is a very aggressive target, and it's still not gonna be the majority of the market 10 years from now even if they hit ALL their goals.

ICE cars suck, but they're still gonna be built and sold new for at least another generation IF Tesla executes their plans perfectly, because battery supply really is that limited (plus energy grid concerns in a lot of 3rd world type places but that's a whole other discussion).

What is kept secret? Elon have been talking about this release to internal people for two months now.

Probably just how beta it may or may not be.

Remember Elon said the re-write would do things at launch that it wouldn't do WELL for at least another year from now.

Enhanced summon was in highly limited early release for about a full year before they decided it was safe enough to let everyone have it.

I don't expect that here- as I imagine initially it'll mostly just be replicating features the old code already did but doing them better, rather than adding tons of NEW stuff.... that'd come later as more testing/improvement happens with each feature- but if the initial small limited beta DOES find an existing feature with a problem they'd probably prefer to find out and fix it quietly than chance some TSLAQ folks getting wind and pushing a "NEW REWRITE IS WORSE IT IS AP1->2 ALL OVER AGAIN" type narrative.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here's today's Tech chart from 09:30 EDT:

Cheers!

 

[JRP3]

Good thing I checked the thread, I thought the markets were closed today

 

[Chocochip]

There have been many 'FSD is coming' announcements. All delayed. But I think once we get as specific as 'Tuesday' we can finally agree it is actually happening! Question is are these small group folks limited to an NDA, or can we expect some Youtube videos out of this?

“Hi, and welcome back to my channel! I am here today in the Model 3 of a friend who’s a part of the early Beta test group for FSD, and I’ll be testing the new features. My friend chose to not be on camera today.”

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Here's today's Tech chart from 09:30 EDT:

Daaaaaaaaangerously close to a breakout!

 

[mrdoubleb]

Daaaaaaaaangerously close to a breakout!

I'd much rather get a jump in SP and settling in a new, higher range as a result of killer profits announced on the 21st, then to have a run-up and "sell the news" on the 22nd.

 

[ZeApelido]

ETSY will destroy all and become #1

On Etsy you will be able to find various bespoke spanking machines, in various colors and horsepowers.

 

[Nocturnal]

Not directly related to TSLA but Workhorse and Lordstown are both doing very well on conjecture that they may win the USPS contract. If they do go EV then it just further validates the Tesla bull case and gives more support to the mission.

 

[jbcarioca]

Tesla to begin accepting new auto orders for India in Jan 2021:

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@TeslaClubIN @cleantechnica Will release order configurator probably in Jan" / Twitter​

Cheers!

...so much for my strong opinions!

 

[jeewee3000]

If software comes out limited next tuesday, wide release in November, improves rapidly over the winter then 2021Q1 A->B 90% of the time seems very plausible.

I'd say it is possible, but not "very plausible". Your timeline is IMO a bit too agressive, reason being the Dojo computer is about a year away from completion to fix the march of nines.

I know the Dojo supercomputer is not required for 90% human ability, but still. I'd say by Q3 2021 we'll be at 90% human capability most likely.

Starting 2022 though, 100% FSD seems perfectly doable. $15k minimum pricing at 50% take rate (at the minimum, I mean it's friggin' true FSD at that point) would come in at $15 billion pure profit (given 2 million cars delivered in 2022).

HODL those shares!

 

[Nocturnal]

I'd say it is possible, but not "very plausible". Your timeline is IMO a bit too agressive, reason being the Dojo computer is about a year away from completion to fix the march of nines.

I know the Dojo supercomputer is not required for 90% human ability, but still. I'd say by Q3 2021 we'll be at 90% human capability most likely.

Starting 2022 though, 100% FSD seems perfectly doable. $15k minimum pricing at 50% take rate (at the minimum, I mean it's friggin' true FSD at that point) would come in at $15 billion pure profit (given 2 million cars delivered in 2022).

HODL those shares!

I keep pointing this out wherever I can. Many people looking at Tesla are thinking that our options are either status quo, or full robotaxi. There are plenty of cases in the middle where Tesla just sells a very expensive and highly functional driving assist software. (I believe robotaxi is inevitable myself of course)

 

[Artful Dodger]

...so much for my strong opinions!

I still agree with your position. I think Tesla will likely sell low digit 10s of 1,000s per year of Model 3/Y in India. Certainly more than the Mercedes EQ variants, but still relatively low.

I think Tesla is setting the stage to sell more Models 2 in India, then very large numbers of locally made Models 1 in the second half of this decade.

Cheers!

 

[engle]

I decided I’m copacetic with smaller daily moves in 400’s as long as we don’t drop below $420.69 through end of Q4 and predicted post-election civil unrest in USA.(1)

As far as fsd goes, I’m driving on the 405 and AI convinced speed limit was 45 mph LMAOOO (last 2 O’s are Out to Orbit). Whipped out my iPad to photograph.

Also visited my fave V3 SC pair at The Rocket Factory and Tesla Design Center. Lobby closed due to covid. Noticed the Falcon 9 first stage not sufficiently lit at night took photo to tweet at Elon with a suggestion it be his absolutely lowest priority.

That is all.

(1) I’m down for an amicable Blue state / Red state split. Share the military. BSA and RSA replaces tired old USA. Who’s in?



DO NOT READ FURTHER TOTALLY O/T! (I bought champagne for a special occasion but didn’t drink any yet I swear)

I have the day off Today in LA. Anyone living in these environs know what fun things to do are actually open? Was going to go to Disney new Starwars zone but Newsome is keeping them closed fml (not). Takes too long to drive to Vegas I won’t fly. Maybe Palm Springs?

 

[Todd Burch]

Um...

Anyone else get the feeling TSLA is being capped? Um, again?

 

[Tslynk67]

So, another week of manipulation ahead unless some volume turns up...

 

[gabeincal]

Um...

Anyone else get the feeling TSLA is being capped? Um, again?

So obvious. Let’s wait for the volume to arrive.... So excited about the setup that we have right now.....

Edit: @Lycanthrope beat me to it..

 

[Jack6591]

For those who have disagreed and found it funny - 10 and counting - I am confused. Are you saying this incident is fake? If so I take it back.

If not, what did you dislike in what I stated there?

@Electroman I have repeatedly posted my thoughts regarding Tesla advertising. I believe Tesla should advertise their Master Plan as a solution to Climate Change. My posts have always been met with robust disagreement.

I have done my best to extend countenance to dissenting opinions, however, I still believe it is a moral imperative for Tesla to advertise.
Count my disagreements.

"You have enemies? Good. That means you’ve stood up for something, sometime in your life."
Winston Churchill

 

[lafrisbee]

I still agree with your position. I think Tesla will likely sell low digit 10s of 1,000s per year of Model 3/Y in India. Certainly more than the Mercedes EQ variants, but still relatively low.

I think Tesla is setting the stage to sell more Models 2 in India, then very large numbers of locally made Models 1 in the second half of this decade.

Cheers!

Yep! I came up with the idea that the decision to sell Teslas out of the Shanghai Factory even though there is no demand constraint in China because Elon wanted to seed other countries with The Tesla Craze. Bringing in cars now lets "the word" get out, and establishes demand. Therefore no paid advertising needed.

 

[Tslynk67]

So obvious. Let’s wait for the volume to arrive.... So excited about the setup that we have right now.....

Edit: @Lycanthrope beat me to it..

Indeed, despite the low volume, we gradually climb. This is very bullish indeed, although a little frustrating.

$450 will be bigly resistance methinks, when we get there...