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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
How about selling them two months from now?
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I think there's a more than decent chance the inclusion peak is far higher than any SP in the new year. Or at least that's what I was certain of earlier today!
Guess I'll just split it up somehow if we don't climb over $650 or so during inclusion.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
You make an interesting point... Elon loves to squeeze the shorts and S&P Dec 21 spike will squeeze the shorts, so I wonder if they will purposely delay FSD wide release to occur AFTER the S&P squeeze because of the potential FUD? I'm pretty anxious to try it myself, but I would be willing to wait if it pains the shorts a little more
It will make an impact on Q4 earnings if Tesla can recognize more FSD revenue in December. That may impact the SP in late January.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Voice is power.
Tesla is not the end game here. The punching bag get's moved around to suit their masters. Your analysis is shallow.
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StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
You would probably have a different perspective if you had seen ARK's new price target (unreleased).
Also, I think your two sentences are in direct conflict with one another. Unless you believe the market currently values Tesla's autonomous program at zero.
Assuming Tesla's autonomous program is valued by the market above zero, and I'm sure it is, then we can expect it's value to increase as people gain a better understanding of exactly what Tesla has (as well as the increase in value due to further development).
Congrats all!
If we just assume that Fremont, Shanghai, Austin, Berlin each will do max 500k/year already FSD should equal more than half of Tesla’s market cap. IMO analysts don’t understand what is happening with FSD, as more and more of them do share price has been increasing...
Even before robotaxi a wide release will be a major source of profit. If Tesla in 2022 does 2M vehicles with todays 30% take rate on a 10k option, that is $6B in pure margins. With a P/E of 50 that is $300B in market cap. Plus the PR and increased demand that will follow. And by then AEB and Autopilot using the same perception should be incredible!
If we just assume that Fremont, Shanghai, Austin, Berlin each will do max 500k/year already FSD should equal more than half of Tesla’s market cap. IMO analysts don’t understand what is happening with FSD, as more and more of them do share price has been increasing...
Worth noting that Ark provides tiers price targets with like 6 tiers.
The reason they are delaying release of the price targets might be a desire to see where FSD is at general release so instead of one moonshot target with robotaxis theyll have multiple robotaxi targets eg:
1. robotaxis in just SF
2. robotaxis in all major american cities
3. robotaxis in all major north american and european cities
4. robotaxis covering the entire us and major european cities
5. robotaxis covering all of north america and europe
etc.
I realize that The solution is a general solution that should work everywhere, however it possible if not likely that some cities will present far more edge cases than others, or that rural america has more edge cases than cities (or maybe the other way around, who knows). Exciting time for tesla tho
edit: brought this up because there's been a lot of "i want arks new target", but we could see their bear case exceed their previous bull case if the stars align in the right way and their new bull case may be mind blowing
$8bn of buying in TSLA
157 of 189 large cap managers that track S&P500 that GS follows do NOT hold TSLA.
"Tesla’s scheduled December 21 inclusion in the S&P 500 could result in $8 billion of demand from active US large-cap mutual funds. Based on current market pricing, Tesla would account for around 1.5% of the S&P 500 index. Since many large-cap core funds are benchmarked to the S&P 500, managers will have to consider including the stock in their portfolios. Of the 189 large-cap core funds in our universe, 157 funds that manage around $500 billion in AUM did not hold TSLA on September 30. Assuming these 157 funds choose to hold TSLA at benchmark weight following its inclusion in the S&P 500, we estimate $8 billion of potential net buying of the stock (2% of TSLA market cap"
The brave warrior managers that decide not to buy will have nightmares about MS "bull case"
$8bn of buying in TSLA | The Market Ear
157 of 189 large cap managers that track S&P500 that GS follows do NOT hold TSLA.
"Tesla’s scheduled December 21 inclusion in the S&P 500 could result in $8 billion of demand from active US large-cap mutual funds. Based on current market pricing, Tesla would account for around 1.5% of the S&P 500 index. Since many large-cap core funds are benchmarked to the S&P 500, managers will have to consider including the stock in their portfolios. Of the 189 large-cap core funds in our universe, 157 funds that manage around $500 billion in AUM did not hold TSLA on September 30. Assuming these 157 funds choose to hold TSLA at benchmark weight following its inclusion in the S&P 500, we estimate $8 billion of potential net buying of the stock (2% of TSLA market cap"
The brave warrior managers that decide not to buy will have nightmares about MS "bull case"
$8bn of buying in TSLA | The Market Ear
Trading above $500 in Europe and looks like some rotation of value/recovery stocks back into growth/tech now everyone realises there will be a C19 vaccine, but just not yet.
Now that's what I call a "smooth transition of power"!
Going to be an interesting day, methinks and browsing ahead at the options charts, $500 strike figures every week for the foreseeable future. What's interesting is that end of December onwards, $600 and then $700 starts to become more prominent.
If $500 could be soundly left behind, then there'd be quite some hedging to be done.
In fact I don't understand why the hedge-funds wouldn't just front-run from here anyway, maybe they are, that's the main buyers right now, but they try their luck anyway today...
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I opened Roth IRA's for my daughters when the SP recently dropped below $400. When I told one of them how much it had gone up she said "In a week?!" I told her, "It's TSLA."My brother called me last Thursday night and sheepishly asked if I thought this would be a good time to be TSLA or if it was "too late". He's been resisting all this time even though I've let him know what I think and had given him a lengthy test drive of my Performance Model 3.
I told him it wasn't too late to take a long-term position. I said the share price oscillations have been steadily declining over the previous few months as it settles in around $408 and that is a good price. I added that we are very close to one of two things; a breakout to the upside or a sharp drop. I put it at 80% to the upside but added that no one knows. I started to say he might consider breaking his buy into two for cost averaging purposes but then I remembered that S&P could happen at any time so I did a 180 and said I would just buy it all at once. He thanked me and told me that's what he wanted to know.
After the S&P announcement I called him to see if he had pulled the trigger and he said he had, around $408. He didn't seem to understand the significance of the S&P 500 but was happy with his entry after it zoomed up on Tues.
The point is, Based on the share price action over the last several months, I was expecting a break-out (with a 20% chance of a drop) with or without an S&P announcement.
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StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Apparently we have been doing it wrong:
How to become a millionaire, in 10 steps
I totally forgot step #8 (set up a high-yield savings account). And there was no mention in there of buying TSLA?
How to become a millionaire, in 10 steps
I totally forgot step #8 (set up a high-yield savings account). And there was no mention in there of buying TSLA?
Very wise move. They will thank you in a decade! I did a similar thing, going all in to TSLA with my Roth IRA (converted in 2012 and holding a career's worth of 403b, 457 and IRA contributions) in late 2013 with half and 2015 with the other half. I didn't need it for retirement, so did it for my two grandchildren who were born in 2011 and 2014. I didn't get it on the ground floor (I could have after buying my MS which was delivered in 2/2013) but waited. So my cost basis averaged 150 pre split, not 35-40 if I had bought earlier in 2013. Now seven years later, the Roth is a tax free 17 bagger. I think it could be a 100 bagger or more by the time they go to college, so part of their education should be how to do philanthropy. I hope I'm still around to see them graduate from college.
Ah, who would've thought I can *actually* be helpful in a forum like this
You should interview him on your channel!
I almost yelled at my risk adverse friend from my hospital bed when she mentioned she had a chunk of money in a high yield savings account at .5% interest (taxed as ordinary income to boot). She asked for a run through of her investments after I heal. Lol
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