Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Don’t turn off the ticker folks! Shows not over. More ATH’s

Run for $650 AH?

Mainly MMs + large hedge funds still allowed to trade after 18:00 hrs. Perhaps delta hedging, or short covering? New ATH intraday: (was $648.79 during the main session)

After Hours High: $649.32 (18:43:39 PM)​

Cheers!

 

[Sancho]

She meant doubling of current SP, so like between $1200-1300ish.

Your Mom’s quite the optimist. When is she planning on traveling to Mars?

Here’s why I’m not sure the SP goes down much after this S&P fever breaks: because nobody can say that your Mom is wrong.

There is so much upside to this company, someday it may double after your Mom’s doubling.

 

[MP3Mike]

Mainly MMs + large hedge funds still allowed to trade after 18:00 hrs. Perhaps delta hedging, or short covering? New ATH intraday: (was $648.79 during the main session)

Really? E*TRADE lets me trade up until 8PM ET...

 

[UncaNed]

The 100 700 strike Jan 2022 covered calls I sold at the end of July for just over $500k are now worth 1.5M. If we close at 1,000 in Jan 2022 those calls will have cost me $3M (selling shares at 700 instead of 1000). However, selling those calls allowed me to pull the trigger on retirement, so I don't regret selling them at all. I don't think many predicted today's SP back in July.

I usually keep one of a batch like that just to see what exactly would happen if I held longer.

 

[adiggs]

Takes a special brand of asshole to post something like this on a 7% up day and ATH close. I believe I was in the lead today until you decided to take the cake.

Neroden cared so much about Tesla that he flipped out at the lack of service and sold his shares. That's a perfectly honorable way to blow $1M IMO. Personally, it's crossed my mind more than a few times to see who'd be interested in donating a share(or a half) to try and rebuild Neroden's position as a TMC present. I would be in for 1.

We use the context we're in, plus the information we have, to make decisions that are best for ourselves. I didn't agree with his decision to sell over the service problems. I did and do agree that it's the #1 thing I'm keeping an eye on (today) regarding my investment thesis in Tesla.

I also believe that he made exactly the correct decision for him and his family, in his circumstances, with his training and experience, that was right for him. Risk comes in many forms, and it may well be that the bigger risk was a downward move from there (possibly due to the service issues) that would have left him in a bad position. Ergo - forego potential future profits, to ensure current income and portfolio. I now think of it as the difference between an income + growth, vs. a growth, mindset.


It's my belief that none of us choose to make a bad decision given the context, experiences, training, and information that we have available to us at the time we make the decision. We only choose to make good decisions for ourselves based on that stuff. What we CAN learn after the fact, from our own and other's decisions, is that if we have a similar situation arise in the future - what would we do differently? What information would we emphasize / deemphasize, etc..


My #1 personal example of this - before investing in TSLA (by a few years), I had an opportunity that looked great to me. A few weeks of looking for the catch, I couldn't find one, and I invested. It worked exactly as I expected. And for years afterwards, I could also identify my mistake == I had a conviction and then I dabbled.

I didn't know the investment would work. Only that I had a conviction it would work, and I invested roughly 1/10th of what I should have. My lesson - when I have a conviction, don't dabble; invest heavily enough that it'll move the needle.

What does conviction mean to me? I've had 4 of them in my investing life (roughly 30 years now). The company I work for, Oneok Partners (the lesson above), TSLA, and now the TSLA inclusion event. Convictions arrive rarely. I'm always looking, but the routine year goes by without a new conviction.

Think of the investing tickets Buffet and Munger talk about now and then - if you have 20 buys and sells in your life, how picky are you about those buys and sells, and how much do you invest when one of them comes along?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Really? E*TRADE lets me trade up until 8PM ET...

Yeah, here's a partial list:

Longest Pre Market, Extended/After Hours Trading Brokers 2020

But looking at the steady patter of 5K trades per min after 6 PM, this feels more like big boys.

Cheers!

 

[Cherry Wine]

My #1 personal example of this - before investing in TSLA (by a few years), I had an opportunity that looked great to me. A few weeks of looking for the catch, I couldn't find one, and I invested. It worked exactly as I expected. And for years afterwards, I could also identify my mistake == I had a conviction and then I dabbled.

I didn't know the investment would work. Only that I had a conviction it would work, and I invested roughly 1/10th of what I should have. My lesson - when I have a conviction, don't dabble; invest heavily enough that it'll move the needle.

What does conviction mean to me? I've had 4 of them in my investing life (roughly 30 years now). The company I work for, Oneok Partners (the lesson above), TSLA, and now the TSLA inclusion event. Convictions arrive rarely. I'm always looking, but the routine year goes by without a new conviction.

Think of the investing tickets Buffet and Munger talk about now and then - if you have 20 buys and sells in your life, how picky are you about those buys and sells, and how much do you invest when one of them comes along?

So much this. Still trying to conquer this tendency myself. I'm a very risk-averse person, and it's not easy to do.

 

[WattsHappening]

So much this. Still trying to conquer this tendency myself. I'm a very risk-averse person, and it's not easy to do.

Me too. I hate losing much more than I enjoy winning. Which is why I don't gamble.

Getting better at it though. At least with TSLA, I made an outsized investment and continued to add to my holdings even as the SP kept increasing. Still could have and should have gone bigger. Now whenever I find a few more pennies under the sofa cushions, they are all going to more TSLA. Slow and steady can still win a race. And this is still a multi-bagger from here.

 

[cusetownusa]

Is this neroden redux? What's in the drinking water in upstate NY?

just asking a question on what people thought about the ID4 and if it would significantly impact Tesla sales. I have no strong opinion either way which is why I asked.

 

[cusetownusa]

I feel like that is way off topic and could be discussed more here: VW ID.4 Free Charging for 3 years! Who wants one?

sorry. Thought Tesla sales and how it might effect the stock price was relevant.

also, not sure why my posts were rated funny or disagree. Just wanted the opinion of smart people here on if they thought this would impact Tesla sales and future growth/stock price. I didn’t even state my opinion (don’t have one) so not sure why I would get any disagrees.

mods please feel free to move my post. I don’t think I can delete it.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Me too. I hate losing much more than I enjoy winning. Which is why I don't gamble.

Getting better at it though. At least with TSLA, I made an outsized investment and continued to add to my holdings even as the SP kept increasing. Still could have and should have gone bigger. Now whenever I find a few more pennies under the sofa cushions, they are all going to more TSLA. Slow and steady can still win a race. And this is still a multi-bagger from here.

100% me too. I am glad I am not alone.

I love this forum/thread. You guys all seem like 'family'

Edit: I am super bullish on TSLA and want to get into LEAPS/Options (calls). If anyone has any 'not advice' or links to get me started please direct message me. I would love to see a 'small' amount of money have a chance to grow big since I believe TSLA will continue to grow way faster than anyone else over the next few years.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Yeah, here's a partial list:

Longest Pre Market, Extended/After Hours Trading Brokers 2020

But looking at the steady patter of 5K trades per min after 6 PM, this feels more like big boys.

Cheers!

Looks like non-index buying may finally be starting. Lol!

 

[Krugerrand]

Your Mom’s quite the optimist. When is she planning on traveling to Mars?

Here’s why I’m not sure the SP goes down much after this S&P fever breaks: because nobody can say that your Mom is wrong.

There is so much upside to this company, someday it may double after your Mom’s doubling.

She’s just conveying what the voices in her head are telling her. Absolutely no logic involved. She’s locked down in a long term care facility (one that currently has not had a single resident get COVID - knock on wood) after having had a massive stroke that by all rights should have killed her. Somebody was watching over her and continues to work miracles. If she says it’s going to double from here by spring, I would not bet against it no matter how unlikely it seems.

 

[wipster]

Could it?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Where I think analysts really fail when they compare Tesla to other automakers is in the value of software. Premium connectivity is $10/mo. A subscription FSD could be $250/mo. Assume 80% of fleet takes premium connectivity, and 20% of fleet does the FSD subscription. In a couple years the fleet will be about 5M units, so that would be 4M people paying $10/mo and 1M people paying $250/mo. That's almost $300M a month in almost pure profit. I don't see Toyota, VW, Ford, GM, or anyone else pulling in that kind of software revenue. Maybe they'll make a few hundred K a year selling GPS map upgrades, but that's it.

And each year those numbers will continue to rise as the fleet gets bigger. The take rate numbers I just made up, so they could be significantly higher (or lower), but it's not that crazy to me that Tesla could be making close to $1B a month in software revenue in 5 years. And that's w/o any kind of robotaxi network.

 

[MC3OZ]

just asking a question on what people thought about the ID4 and if it would significantly impact Tesla sales. I have no strong opinion either way which is why I asked.

IMO the only relevant question is of EVs are a better option than a similarly priced ICE.

For all Tesla models the answer is YES.

For ID3/ID4 and many other EVs, the answer is yes.

When ICE sales are close to zero , EVs will start competing..

IMO Tesla can sell up to 20 Million vehicles per year 20-25% of the market, that means 75-80% of EV buyers are buying something different.

That is a great outcome for all, except ICE car makers that don't make the transition, car dealers, mechanics, oil companies etc.

 

[corduroy]

In just over 12 hours (7am EST Tuesday, December 8th), start of SpaceX coverage of Starship SN-8 High Altitude Flight Test. Catch it here: SpaceX If Starship goes up half as high as TSLA, it will be a smashing success.

I don't know if am more excited about this launch or watching the ticker again tomorrow!

 

[wipster]

649.24... this SP is such a tease!

 

[wipster]

I don't know if am more excited about this launch or watching the ticker again tomorrow!

The good thing is you can do both!

 

[Johnny Ma]

She’s just conveying what the voices in her head are telling her. Absolutely no logic involved. She’s locked down in a long term care facility (one that currently has not had a single resident get COVID - knock on wood) after having had a massive stroke that by all rights should have killed her. Somebody was watching over her and continues to work miracles. If she says it’s going to double from here by spring, I would not bet against it no matter how unlikely it seems.

I finally got around to figuring out what I'd sell my shares for today, and it's approximately 1100. That's not what would be personally best for me, that's what I think is fair value in December of 2020. My model is simplistic, but maybe so is Mom's. Go Mom.