Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Mon, Dec 07, 2020: (Full Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Tops $600B Mkt Cap"

Traded: $35,016,244,237.16 ($35.02B)
Volume: 55,512,220
VWAP: $630.78

Close: $641.76 / VWAP: 101.85%
TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $560 (+$10)

Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM $608.325B / $193.181B = 314.90%
Note: Yahoo Finance updated TSLA Mkt Cap for shares issued Sep 9th (per 10-Q)
​

CEO Comp. Status:

TSLA 30-day Closing Avg Market Cap: $482.79B
TSLA 6-mth Closing Avg Market Cap: $350.89B

Mkt Cap req'd for 6th tranche ($350B) reached today, Mon, Dec 07, 2020
Nota Bene: Operational milestones are req'd for this tranche. Paging @The Accountant
​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 52.8% (52nd Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 40.9% (46th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume ratio was 0.45% of Short Volume (46th Percentile Rank)​

QOTD: @Kruggerand "Mom says double"

Comment: "4 ATHs today, plus a nifty $649.45 After-hrs

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Zaxxon]

In just over 12 hours (7am EST Tuesday, December 8th), start of SpaceX coverage of Starship SN-8 High Altitude Flight Test. Catch it here: SpaceX If Starship goes up half as high as TSLA, it will be a smashing success.

That's true--it very well could go up half as high as TSLA and be a smashing success.

Complete agreement with the entirety of your post--what a crazy year, both amazingly good and terribly bad. Enjoy the good, and spread the good fortune to others.

Speaking of the good, I'm celebrating another digit added to the balance of one of the accounts in which I hold TSLA today. So I am compelled to once again share in the revelry...

 

[oldTAVguy]

We use the context we're in, plus the information we have, to make decisions that are best for ourselves. I didn't agree with his decision to sell over the service problems. I did and do agree that it's the #1 thing I'm keeping an eye on (today) regarding my investment thesis in Tesla.

I also believe that he made exactly the correct decision for him and his family, in his circumstances, with his training and experience, that was right for him. Risk comes in many forms, and it may well be that the bigger risk was a downward move from there (possibly due to the service issues) that would have left him in a bad position. Ergo - forego potential future profits, to ensure current income and portfolio. I now think of it as the difference between an income + growth, vs. a growth, mindset.


It's my belief that none of us choose to make a bad decision given the context, experiences, training, and information that we have available to us at the time we make the decision. We only choose to make good decisions for ourselves based on that stuff. What we CAN learn after the fact, from our own and other's decisions, is that if we have a similar situation arise in the future - what would we do differently? What information would we emphasize / deemphasize, etc..


My #1 personal example of this - before investing in TSLA (by a few years), I had an opportunity that looked great to me. A few weeks of looking for the catch, I couldn't find one, and I invested. It worked exactly as I expected. And for years afterwards, I could also identify my mistake == I had a conviction and then I dabbled.

I didn't know the investment would work. Only that I had a conviction it would work, and I invested roughly 1/10th of what I should have. My lesson - when I have a conviction, don't dabble; invest heavily enough that it'll move the needle.

What does conviction mean to me? I've had 4 of them in my investing life (roughly 30 years now). The company I work for, Oneok Partners (the lesson above), TSLA, and now the TSLA inclusion event. Convictions arrive rarely. I'm always looking, but the routine year goes by without a new conviction.

Think of the investing tickets Buffet and Munger talk about now and then - if you have 20 buys and sells in your life, how picky are you about those buys and sells, and how much do you invest when one of them comes along?

Would you apply this understanding to TSLAQ? /s

 

[cusetownusa]

IMO the only relevant question is of EVs are a better option than a similarly priced ICE.

For all Tesla models the answer is YES.

For ID3/ID4 and many other EVs, the answer is yes.

When ICE sales are close to zero , EVs will start competing..

IMO Tesla can sell up to 20 Million vehicles per year 20-25% of the market, that means 75-80% of EV buyers are buying something different.

That is a great outcome for all, except ICE car makers that don't make the transition, car dealers, mechanics, oil companies etc.

thanks...this is the type of response I was looking for. Makes sense to me.

when I have a lot of money invested in a company I like to make sure I stay on top of not only the company itself, but it’s competitors to see if it could have any impact on future sales and the stock price.

I apologize for posting a question like this in this thread, but with all of the discussion about projected sales and stock price I thought it would be a relevant place to discuss.

 

[dakh]

I feel morally obligated to press that ADD button, even though I don't care one bit about the actual functionailty:

 

[Unpilot]

not really sure about VWs reputation but I know a Tesla is starting to get a bad reputation)

I think you do have an opinion.
I disagree with it by the way

 

[adiggs]

Would you apply this understanding TSLAQ?

I would.

But I admit as an outsider, I need to make some interpretations and allowances that get into a pretty oddball space.


The really dedicated shorts - it seems like they're being funded by an external source that wants what they're doing. In which case, their decision making is not really about Tesla or TSLA at all - it's about earning their paycheck (if this is even going on at all). Which would lead us to the conclusion that they are making an excellent decision for themselves (do what they need to do, to keep getting the paycheck).

The ones that are really dedicated to the proposition that TSLA is on the verge of bankruptcy - it sure looks to me like they're avoiding some information in order to craft a reality that matches their expectations. But again, the decisions themselves are consistent with their information, experience, training, and context.

More broadly, this is me trying to impose an external view on people who are making decisions that make no sense to me. But I claim that the original observation is the same - internal to their own individual world, their decisions are good ones using what they know (they aren't consciously going "I'm deciding to do this thing that I know from my own (stuff) is an actively bad decision"). The fact that I, as an outsider, can't explain the decisions is my own problem (or more accurately - my own profit due to the information I can see them ignoring).


I didn't say that we're all trying to expand on our information, so we can make better decisions. Plenty of people are satisfied with the quality of their decisions and not particularly trying to improve them in the future.

In the context of this forum, I like to call that getting smarter. As in - when I read somebody's post, do I leave it thinking that I'm smarter than I was before I read the post. I try to apply that standard to my own posts (except when I'm being a smart aleck and going for a cheap laugh). I've written and deleted so many posts, it's hard to count.

 

[Knightshade]

I finally got around to figuring out what I'd sell my shares for today, and it's approximately 1100. That's not what would be personally best for me, that's what I think is fair value in December of 2020. My model is simplistic, but maybe so is Mom's. Go Mom.

Right now you can get a sweet extra ~$2 a share selling Dec 31 $1100 strike covered calls!

 

[MC3OZ]

The really dedicated shorts - it seems like they're being funded by an external source that wants what they're doing. In which case, their decision making is not really about Tesla or TSLA at all - it's about earning their paycheck (if this is even going on at all). Which would lead us to the conclusion that they are making an excellent decision for themselves (do what they need to do, to keep getting the paycheck).

I've recently concluded these might be "Propaganda Shorts" they are perhaps being funded because they make a lot of noise, spread a lot of FUD. and muddy the waters on Tesla all the time.

While I think they are (mostly) deluded enough to think they are right and they will make money, I grasped this straw as a reason why someone would keep giving them money to invest, because otherwise given their track record, I can't see why anyone would invest with them.

However a small investment keeps them going, allows them to say they are still short, and to put out their talking points. Talking points without a short position don't have the same weight.

 

[cusetownusa]

I think you do have an opinion.
I disagree with it by the way

Ok...Well my opinion (in case you were wondering) is that most Tesla’s, especially after they have had a few months to work out any early kinks, ultimately have just as good quality and fit and finish as any other manufacture. I think they are great cars and I can’t wait to get one when my current car needs to be replaced.

my comment about the reputation pertained to if people thought this is a concern. When I tell friends and family my next car will be a Tesla, I find myself defending Tesla when they tell me that Tesla has poor quality and service. They point to things like JD power surveys, consumer reports, and many other FUD type articles.

so while I do my best to defend them and point out the error in their thinking, at the end of the day perception is reality to most people whether it’s true or not.

not not sure what you disagree with, is it simply you don’t think there is any negative perception about Tesla quality and service or do you disagree with my opinion that I think Tesla’s are great cars?

 

[SeaNile]

All I know is I am bitter at myself for not rolling over an IRA I had available to me many years ago and go with TSLA. Here I am sitting here trying to jump and hope its at an OK time. Could wait for the pull back.....but that just may never happen.

 

[FrankSG]

Wait, isnt this contradicting - being weighted by float and market price intrinsically means share count is a function of those two.

For example the change in AAPL holding by SPY keeps changing when the share price changes, which in turn changes the weighting in S&P500

Whereas look at GOOGL where price hasnt changed much - weightage remains around the same and the #of shares held isnt fluctuating wildly.

or BRKB - same share price: but weight has been reduced by .03% since other components have changed and hence # of shares held have been adjusted.

(caveat : not considering inflow of new funds into SPY - however, that shouldn't change weightage)

View attachment 615344

AAPL # of shares are changing more because the fund holds more AAPL shares. If you look at percentage change, they look nearly the same for each stock to me. If anything, this confirms stock price has no influence on # of shares an S&P 500 index fund holds.

 

[Knightshade]

. They point to things like JD power surveys, consumer reports,

You might want to point them right back to both sources and point out both rate Tesla #1 in owner satisfaction among all car brands.

https://twitter.com/VGrinshpun/status/1237235857335222272

CR rating them #1 by a wide margin.

2020 Automotive Performance, Execution and Layout (APEAL) Study

Tesla with an "unofficial" score of 896- again higher than any other brand.

(Unofficial because unlike other makers, Tesla cares about owner privacy so in the 15 states it requires their permission to contact owners they don't grant it, so the win is based on results for the other 35 states without privacy protections)

 

[st_lopes]

Empty bottle at 2 TSLA shares price, I guess that’s a fair offer

Today, my wife just announced that she doesn’t want to start back working after her maternity leave now that today I made her annual salary with my TSLA shares.

I told her to go volunteer for Tesla in Fremont. She’s an electrical engineer.

I keep telling my wife that I’ll quit post inclusion to work at the local Tesla sales location. She doesn’t believe me.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Another thing I haven't seen much discussion about is what happens if the Biden administration removes all of Trump's tariffs. Seems like that would be good for Tesla and allow them to lower prices.

 

[cusetownusa]

All I know is I am bitter at myself for not rolling over an IRA I had available to me many years ago and go with TSLA. Here I am sitting here trying to jump and hope its at an OK time. Could wait for the pull back.....but that just may never happen.

I was thinking the same thing. About a year ago I rolled over my entire SEP IRA (large amount of money and could have invested in TSLA) into my 401k (now limited to a handful of funds).

At the time I was fully aware of Tesla as even then I new my next car would probably be a Tesla. However, I was never one to invest in individual stocks.

Fast forward to battery day, I was all in. Put all of my Roth IRA and my taxable account into TSLA. But would have put a large amount of my 401k if I could have.

anyways, I have done well over the last few months but still feel very poor here. Lol

 

[EVCollies]

I guess my T shirt came just in time on Friday.

I can't wait to see the $TSLA to mars shirt!

 

[Zero CO2]

just asking a question on what people thought about the ID4 and if it would significantly impact Tesla sales. I have no strong opinion either way which is why I asked.

ID4 is good for the sustainability mission... it furthers the mission it will actually help Tesla sales ... it is not a Tesla competitor ...

 

[cusetownusa]

You might want to point them right back to both sources and point out both rate Tesla #1 in owner satisfaction among all car brands.

https://twitter.com/VGrinshpun/status/1237235857335222272

CR rating them #1 by a wide margin.

2020 Automotive Performance, Execution and Layout (APEAL) Study

Tesla with an "unofficial" score of 896- again higher than any other brand.

(Unofficial because unlike other makers, Tesla cares about owner privacy so in the 15 states it requires their permission to contact owners they don't grant it, so the win is based on results for the other 35 states without privacy protections)

This is exactly what I do...and I believe I do make a difference when defending Tesla. But I am only one person and like I said, perception becomes reality for a lot of people. Which is why FUD against Tesla can be effective for a lot of people.

also, thanks to the people that actually responded to me with helpful information instead of just hitting disagree or funny. I am new here and I want to make sure I am not an idiot for investing in Tesla or wanting to buy a Tesla. When most people in my life say Tesla is overvalued, or has poor quality and service, it makes you think. Just doing my due diligence.

 

[JRP3]

What's in the drinking water in upstate NY?

Lately it seems to be mostly champagne.